NIFTY STILL IN TRIANGLE

Weekly chart shows that nifty is still trading within the triangle and faced resistance at down trending line around 5700 last week.

NIFTY WEEKLY   

 On daily chart last two days formed doji pattern due to uncertainty in debt deal in USA which is likely to be resolved on 2Aug., will this give further direction? If support of 5400-5430 is broken possibility of filling unfilled gap near 5330 increases or there may be retest of recent low 5195 (20 jun 11). If holds 5400 possibility of retesting 5550-5600. ALWAYS KEEP POSSIBILITY OF ALTERNATE VIEW WHENEVER IT LOOKS LIKE. NIFTY IS TRADING IN TIGHT RANGE AND NEARING THE APEX OF TRIANGLE, SO IT MAY GO UP OR DOWN AND SINCE IT IS NEARING APEX CLEAR DIRECTION WILL B RESOLVED IN NEXT 3-4 WEEKS.

NIFTY DAILY

TECHNICAL SETUP AND RBI CREDIT POLICY

Today at around 12noon, rbi credit policy will b out , most of analyst are expecting 25 basis point hike, but we think yesterdays buying is in anticipation that there will not b rate hike, or 25 basis point increase is all ready factored in by market participant, if that is the case then nifty will breakout above down trending resistance line today itself or at the most till this weekend, we will keep our fingers crossed.                                                                                                                                If that don't happen then till some more downside is left.

POSSIBILITY OF FAST RISE

Friday's close and ema setup on EOD chart suggesting fast rise will it happen? we will wait and watch for the answer.  Right now not having access to desktop/ laptop hence will post the chart later on when time permits.

Now at 3:35pm posting the EOD chart

NIFTY EOD

POSSIBILITY OF NEW LIFE TIME HIGH

See the post posted on 4 may 11 here http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.com/2011/05/follow-up-trading-game-of-probability.html. Even though hourly and daily closes are below given levels, there is no weekly close happened below 5177.70, so possibility of new life time high is still open and it will strengthen if it closes above the resistance line shown in triangle pattern, AND IF IT CLOSES ABOVE 5950 THERE IS POSSIBILITY OF BLAST ON UPSIDE.   

AT THE SAME TIME REMEMBER THAT IF IT BREAKS LOWER TREND LINE WE WILL SEE MUCH LOWER LEVELS PROBABLY 3900-4000 ON NIFTY.
  
BUT OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT EVENTUALLY IT WILL BREAK FOR UPSIDE, BE CAREFUL THIS IS NOT TO DO ANYTHING WITH TECHNICALS OR FUNDAMENTALS THIS IS JUST GUT FEELING!  

FOLLOW UP NIFTY IN TRIANGLE

ON 28 may 11 we discussed regarding nifty in triangle. ALSO MENTIONED REGARDING POSSIBILITY OF FALSE BREAKDOWN OR BREAKOUT in this post http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.com/2011/05/nifty-in-triangle.html. NOW LOOK THE FOLLOWING DAILY CHART U WILL B SURPRISED.

NIFTY DAILY

So once there is false breakdown, once false breakout and nifty is trading within triangle only. NEXT BREAKOUT OR BREAKDOWN WILL B REAL ONE SO KEEP WATCHING!

Now watch the weekly chart given below, observe that even though nifty has given false breakdown and false breakout on daily chart there is no breakdown or breakout on weekly closing basis

NIFTY WEEKLY

  Thus on weekly chart still it is looking like consolidation and next breakout/breakdown will b real one.

FOLLOW UP POSITIVE MACD DIVERGENCE ON DAILY CHART

On 27/6/2011 we have mentioned that it looks like this up move will continue up to upper boilinger band which is right now at 5660, in this post http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.com/2011/06/positive-macd-divergence-in-macd-on.html. Today nifty opened at 5705.75, thus target has been achieved. This is power of technical charts. There are lot of negative news like rising inflation, rising interest rate, impact on corporate profits etc. till market is gone up.