NIFTY - LONG TERM VIEW UPDATE

Yesterday short term trend changed to down, today intermediate also turned down, so what next ?

NIFTY WEEKLY CHART

 Now looks like our NIFTY FIFTY will test the upper trend line of down trending channel on weekly chart, which is approximately 5000-5050 level. After testing this level if NIFTY turns up then it will be very healthy for Indian market for up move. IN SHORT : - IT IS GIVING OPPORTUNITY TO BUY FOR LONG TERM INVESTORS.
5000-5050 level get tested in next 1-1.5 month period.

CAUTION : - but at the same time if it starts trading in down trending channel once again, then it may have negative impact and this view will get negated. If it starts trading in channel once again, there will be possibility of testing lows (4530) made in DEC 11, or it may start trading in range so that there will be time correction.

NOTE:- AS OF NOW STOP LOSS FOR LONG TERM INVESTOR IS WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 4530. kindly note this level may change according to future price action.

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.

HAPPY NEW YEAR

WISHING ALL BLOG READERS HAPPY GUDI PADAWA AND HEALTHY N WEALTHY HAPPY NEW YEAR.

     THE NEW YEAR WHICH COMMENCES ON GUDI PADAWA, IS IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE TIME THE UNIVERSE CAME INTO EXISTENCE . THUS THE DAY HAS TREMENDOUS POTENTIAL ELEMENTS TO CREATE A NEW ( NAV-CHAITANYA ). THUS CELEBRATE ONSET OF NEW YEAR ON GUDI PADWA.

     IT IS ON THE SAME DAY LAST YEAR WE STARTED THIS BLOG. LITTLE BIT CONFUSED AT THAT TIME WHETHER IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR US TO WRITE THE BLOG, BUT UP TILL NOW 104 POSTS, NOT BAD.

      ONCE AGAIN CONFUSED WHETHER TO CONTINUE THE BLOG OR NOT, LETS SEE WHAT IS IN STORE NEXT YEAR.

SHORT TERM VIEW

It has been mentioned in yesterdays post --- " So now further direction will depend on hourly close outside the range of 5230-5300. If it closes above 5300 possibility of 5370-5400 " And today at 1:00 pm it given hourly close above 5300 so now possibility of 5370-5400 are high.

 Stop loss for this trade will be hourly close below 5256.25.

 By giving hourly close above 5300, it may be giving early indication that the short term correction which started on 15 march may be over. For this now it should not break below 5233, otherwise this view will get negated.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.

CONFUSION -- SHORT TERM TRADERS NOT SURE ABOUT DIRECTION

On 16 march view predicted was -- " Since yesterday short term trend has been changed to down, one can sell NIFTY at C.M.P. (current market price ) - 5421 for target of 5300 and may be 5200 in coming 4-5 trading sessions." ( See link - http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/03/nifty-short-term-view.html ). RESULT : - On next trading day ( 19 march) nifty achieved target of 5300, and today made low of 5233.8.

Now what is next possibility ?

NIFTY HOURLY 

As seen in above hourly chart nifty is trading in narrow range  since last 2 days.

 

NIFTY DAILY 

As seen above chart during previous fall on 7 march 200 EMA given support to nifty, and since last 2 days nifty is getting supported by 50 EMA, will these 2 supports  hold or got broken during this week? Nobody knows the answer, we will follow the technicals so that we will be on right side.
    One more thing we can notice in daily chart is that -- today nifty opened at 5261.3, made high of 5297.15, low of 5233.8 so movement of approx. 64 points, but closed at 5270.3. Thus it made DOJI which once again signifies confusion among short term traders about further direction.
    So now further direction will depend on hourly close outside the range of 5230-5300. If it closes above 5300 possibility of 5370-5400 and if closes below 5230 possibility of testing recent low roughly 5170
    Direction will be more clear after daily close above 5345or below  5230. If it gives daily close above

5345 possibility of resuming up trend are high and we will consider that recent fall is correction in ongoing up trend. But if it gives daily close below 5330 possibility of testing 5170 or there may be more downside.

 IMPORTANT NOTE : - 

WEEKLY CHART

 As seen in weekly chart during the week ending on 3 feb NIFTY given break out above the down trending channel. The approximate target for this breakout is 6000-6050. BUT CAUTION during the ongoing correction ( fall ) nifty should not give weekly close below the upper trend line. Otherwise NIFTY will be back in channel and the breakout will turn out to be false break out. If this happens possibility of testing 4530 once again are high, and it may make new low also.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.

NIFTY FIFTY --- LAST WEEK EVENT'S WILL THEY SPOIL THE PARTY OR GIVING OPPORTUNITY TO BUY FOR LONG TERM INVESTORS ?

After making low on 20/12/11 at approximate level of 4530 NIFTY started its uptrend. Last week there are lots of event like inflation data, RBI policy and union budget. Since there are no any positive surprises last week short term trend turned weak. So now the question is will this rally sustain?

As mentioned elsewhere on this blog Indian capital market is in uptrend as suggested by technicals.

NIFTY - DAILY CHART

As shown in the chart NIFTY after breaking trend line 1, taken support at 200 sma ( which is shown by brown line ) and after retesting the trend line 1 it started falling once again. 50 day sma ( green) is above 200 day sma (brown), so it is suggesting up trend, and current fall is correction in ongoing uptrend. If and only if NIFTY gives daily close below 5170, then and then only there is possibility of more down side.
Next week possibility of NIFTY taking support at one of following supports --
1) 34 day  ema approximate level 5300
2)  50 day sma approximate level 5230
3) 200 day sma approximate level 5165
4) trend line 2 approximate level 5275

there are other supports also, so in short there is cluster of multiple supports in the range 5100 to 5300, so its buy during dips.

NOTE: LONG TERM TREND OF INDIAN MARKET IS UP, UNLESS IT GIVES WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 4530. ( this level will change according to future price action) . SO AS OF NOW OUR MARKET IS BUY ON DIPS FOR LONG TERM INVESTORS.

OUR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT THE ONGOING SHORT TERM CORRECTION WILL END BY NEXT WEEK AND IT WILL RESUME IT'S UP TREND FROM 26 MARCH.

As of now data given on nse web site suggest that FII's are buying, while DII's are selling, but be careful if FII also start selling this whole party may get spoiled.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.

NIFTY SHORT TERM VIEW

Since yesterday short term trend has been changed to down, one can sell NIFTY at C.M.P. (current market price ) - 5421 for target of 5300 and may be 5200 in coming 4-5 trading sessions. Stop loss for this trade hourly close above 5445.3

 CAUTION :- Intermediate and long term trend is up only, so stop loss should be followed strictly.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.

FOLLOW UP

Yesterday at 7:52 am in this post (http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/03/follow-up-5-will-it-repeat-show-once.html ) the short term possibility is predicted ------ "SHORT TERM VIEW -- Now if yesterdays low (5327.55) is not broken  then NIFTY will target 5500 in this week"   AND today in opening move only it made high of 5499.40 means short term target ALMOST achieved.
  So according to technical analysis who bought NIFTY at yesterday's open price 5391.1 must have rewarded with profit of 108.3 points.

FOLLOW UP 5 - WILL IT REPEAT THE SHOW ONCE AGAIN ?

On 5'th march in this link http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/03/follow-up-nifty-in-triangle.html it has been mentioned that- "So now it looks like that, it will target 5100, at least 5200 this week." and once again as per expectation last week it made low of 5171.45.
          As we are mentioning repeatedly on this blog Indian market is entering new bull market. We first posted regarding this possibility on 24 Jan 2012 ( see link - http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/01/drama-will-it-repeat-show-once-again.html ). Now one by one it is giving new clues and confirming that it is  bull market.

According to technical analysis BULLS ( UPTREND) lives above 200 SMA ( or 200 EMA) and BEARS (DOWNTREND) lives below  200 SMA ( or 200 EMA). Now last week even though short term trend is down after correction NIFTY taken support around 200 SMA and EMA ( see chart)



         On 24 Feb we mentioned regarding possibility of GOLDEN CROSS  in this post ( link - http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/02/follow-up-4-will-it-repeat-show-once.html ) which has been all ready happened.

        In technical analysis some traders/ investors look for exponential moving averages (E.M.A.), while some look for simple moving averages (S.M.A.)
        Now see the chart below and what happened yesterday -----

 You can see that  50 SMA crossed above  200 SMA yesterday that means one more GOLDEN CROSS happened yesterday. Thus one more clue got confirmed that we are in BULL MARKET. 

SHORT TERM VIEW -- Now if yesterdays low (5327.55) is not broken  then NIFTY will target 5500 in this week ( on 14'th march inflation data will be out, on 15'th R.B.I. policy and on 16'th  UNION BUDGET will be there so possibility of lot of volatility during this week so short term traders should follow there stop losses strictly).

LONG TERM VIEW --- As we have mentioned on 24'th Jan (http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/01/drama-will-it-repeat-show-once-again.html )  our market has entered new bull market and even though state election results not boosted market sentiments hold your investments, and if your risk profile and capital allows buy on every dips ( corrections) and hold on till long term trend is up.
Eventually looks like NIFTY will target 5500, 5700, 6000 and may even make new life time high till MARCH 2013.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.