LONG TERM VIEW FOLLOW UP

As mentioned in our last post http://www.kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/07/long-term-view-follow-up.html the profit has been booked at 5320-5350 zone or when NIFTY closed below previous 2 days low i.e. on 12 July at 5235 level. So in terms of index this is 9 % returns. Individual stock / mutual funds may have given returns  in the range of 6-12 %. We think this is not bad during present market situation.

Via long term analysis we are trying to preserve our capital as well as to take advantages of short term up sides. So as of now no position. Right now our advice will buy only if NIFTY gives weekly close above 5378.75.

Those who are willing to take risk can again invest 33% of  capital at current level i.e. 5180-5200 zone with stop loss of 5000 on closing basis.

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

SHORT TERM TRADING STRATEGY

NIFTY DAILY

As shown in the daily chart nifty is forming RISING WEDGE. The rising wedge pattern is characterized by a chart pattern which forms when the market makes higher highs and higher lows with a contracting range. When this pattern is found in an uptrend, it is considered a reversal pattern, as the contraction of the range indicates that the uptrend is losing strength.

That means the ongoing uptrend is losing its strength and there is possibility of correction. Our trading strategy which is based on hourly chart also given indication to book profit on Friday.  But this pattern will indicate that there is possibility of correction but it is not sure. There will be more chances if it breaks previous 2 days low.At the same time if it gives hourly close above 5340-5350 it may go to 5430. So be cautious and trade with strict stop loss.

If there is correction the supports will be 50 EMA on daily chart i.e. 5125, 200 EMA on daily chart i.e. 5160, and the gap created on  29/6.

SO WHAT SHOULD BE TRADING STRATEGY NEXT WEEK ?

 A) if next week nifty first goes down and gives hourly close below 5300, then short (sell) nifty with strict stop loss of hourly close above 5335 for target of 5150-5180.
      Again buy near 5150-5180 with stop loss of 5120 for target of 5430

B) if next week nifty first  goes up to 5430 then sell with stop loss of hourly close above  5450 for target of 5180-5200.
       Again buy near 5150-5180 with stop loss of 5120 for target of 5430

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

LONG TERM VIEW --- FOLLOW UP

On 18 june in this post FOLLOW UP  it has been advised to either book profit at 5170-5200 zone or keep previous 2 days low as stop loss.

NIFTY DAILY

If u observe daily chart of NIFTY given above u can realize that NIFTY never gave close below previous 2 days low, so now those who are holding buy position from 4800 level can book profit at 5320-5350 zone or can ride this up move by keeping stop loss of close below previous 2 days low.

WHY 5180-5200 ZONE IS IMPORTANT FOR LONG TERM INVESTOR ?

The answer is hidden in the chart given below --- 

NIFTY WEEKLY

  This is weekly chart of NIFTY, it has taken support ( green arrows ) as well as faced resistance ( red arrows ) so many times at this zone.

So those who booked profit can re-enter on pull back to 5200 level and invest 33% of there capital at this level with stop loss of weekly closing below 5000.

For investing for remaining 66% capital will update according to future price action. As of now weekly close above 5380 is important for further decision making.

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

FOLLOW UP SHORT TERM VIEW

According to this post SHORT TERM VIEW NIFTY gave hourly close above 5190-5200 on Friday. So now it may target 5320-5350, even 5400 may be possible.

Short term traders should keep stop loss of hourly closing below 5190.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.