FOLLOW UP NIFTY IN TRIANGLE

On 2'nd march it has been mentioned that nifty is trading in triangle. Let's analyze what happend next & what is possibility now  ----

On Friday (2'nd march) it gave intraday  spike above 5380, but it was not able to give hourly close above 5380. On Saturday market was open from 11:15 am to 12:45 pm & at 12 noon it gave hourly close above the upper border of triangle but without significant volume. If we don't consider volume, there looks possibility of 5600 but stop loss for this trade was hourly close below 5324. And now at 10 am it closed below 5324, as well as lower border of triangle. So now it looks like that, it will target 5100, at least 5200 this week.

Caution :- tomorrow result of U.P. election will be declared, so there is possibility of volatility which we all ready experiencing since last week.Therefore any trade should be followed with strict stop loss. Stop loss for this trade is hourly close above 5369.60

   DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.

SHORT TERM VIEW --- NIFTY IN TRIANGLE

Right now NIFTY is trading in triangle (height of triangle approximately 230 points. So if it gives hourly close above 5380,  it will target 5580-5600. At the same time if it gives hourly close below 5310-20, it will target 5100. Lets see which way it breaks.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.

FOLLOW UP 4 - WILL IT REPEAT THE SHOW ONCE AGAIN ? ---- POSSIBILITY OF GOLDEN CROSS ?

On 22/2/12 in this post ( http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/02/short-term-view_22.html ), it has been mentioned that ---
Today's price action suggest that the much awaited correction has been started. Now in coming days nifty is likely to  fall up to 5350-5400 ( which is the break out level ), or it may fall up to 5200. After testing one / both of these level it may regain it's upward journey for target of 5700-5800 and then 5900 -6000.

Today NIFTY all ready reached up to 5406. And interestingly it closed  above breakout level (around 5415), weekly first support (S1 -- 5410.75), and monthly first resistance (R1-- 5416.15), so in spite of yesterday's and today's weakness there may be bounce back on Monday.

ONE MORE INTERESTING THING -- IF IT HAPPENS IT WILL GIVE MORE STRENGTH TO OUR BULLISH VIEW.

   THIS IS LONG TERM DAILY CHART OF NIFTY SINCE MAY 1994, I.E. ALMOST FOR 18 YEARS.

In this chart kindly note that 50 EMA and 200 EMA both are at 5177. If 50 EMA crosses 200 EMA and goes above 200 EMA it is bullish sign ( possibility of uptrend ), the possibility of up trend will get strength. 50 EMA crossing above 200 EMA is known as ''GOLDEN CROSS'' in technical terms.

ALWAYS KEEP THIS IN MIND : - If from this level or after going above 200EMA, 50EMA turns down or remains below 200EMA possibility of sharp fall and even breaching the recent low 4530 will be there.

NOTE : IF NIFTY BREACH 5400-5415 THERE IS POSSIBILITY OF SHARP FALL AND MAY FALL UP TO 200 EMA / 200 SMA WHICH ARE APPROXIMATELY AT 5150-5200 RIGHT NOW.
         NEXT 3-4 WEEKS THERE WILL BE LOT OF NEWS FLOW LIKE --- G.D.P. DATA WILL BE ANNOUNCED ON 29 FEB., OUTCOME OF U.P. ELECTION RESULTS, UNION BUDGET PROBABLY ON 16 MARCH, SO THERE WILL BE LOT OF VOLATILITY IN COMING 3-4 WEEKS.

 CAUTION : - EVEN THOUGH TECHNICALLY OUR MARKET IS LOOKING BULLISH, THERE IS NO IMPROVEMENT IN FUNDAMENTALS. BUT AS PER SAYING FOLLOW TECHNICALS  (CHART) FUNDAMENTALS (NEWS) WILL FOLLOW. SO WE WILL FOLLOW TECHNICALS IF THERE IS NO IMPROVEMENT IN FUNDAMENTALS OUR CHARTS WILL INDICATE POSSIBILITY OF FALL.

  DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.

SHORT TERM VIEW

Today's price action suggest that the much awaited correction has been started. Now in coming days nifty is likely to  fall up to 5350-5400 ( which is the break out level ), or it may fall up to 5200. After testing one / both of these level it may regain it's upward journey for target of 5700-5800 and then 5900 -6000.

NOTE:- This view will get negated if nifty gives daily close above 5630.

Now a days we are not posting charts for short term views because it takes time, whenever time permits or major turnaround happens we will post charts also.

  DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.

INDIA VIX IN BEAR MARKET

As per our analysis INDIA VIX  has entered bear market, so looks like this up move of indian market will continue unless INDIA VIX GIVES weekly close above 31.27

Also as seen in chart there is bearish cross over of 50 and 200 EMA on daily chart of INDIA VIX which is known as DEATH CROSS.

CAUTION : - EVEN THOUGH TECHNICALLY OUR MARKET IS LOOKING BULLISH, THERE IS NO IMPROVEMENT IN FUNDAMENTALS. BUT AS PER SAYING FOLLOW TECHNICALS  (CHART) FUNDAMENTALS (NEWS) WILL FOLLOW. SO WE WILL FOLLOW TECHNICALS IF THERE IS NO IMPROVEMENT IN FUNDAMENTALS OUR CHARTS WILL INDICATE POSSIBILITY OF FALL.

  DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.