NOTHING NEW --- RANGE BOUND

As shown in above chart NIFTY is trading within the FALLING WEDGE since 22 Feb and unless and untill there is clear cut break out from this wedge there will not be any significant move.

   On 19 Apr there is breakout on daily chart which turned out to be falls breakout since from 23 Apr once again NIFTY is trading within falling wedge.  So unless there is weekly close outside this wedge there will not be any significant move.

   Keep watch on following levels ---
(A) FOR UP SIDE BREAK OUT
      Daily close above 5342.45 will be first indication that there is possibility of upside.
      Weekly close above 5378.75 will be more confirmatory sign for upside.

(B) FOR DOWN SIDE BREAK OUT
      Daily close below 5183.5 will be first indication that there is possibility of down side.
      Weekly close below 5135.95 will be more confirmatory sign for downside.

NOTE :- FALLING WEDGE IS BULLISH PATTERN ( SUGGESTING POSSIBILITY OF UPSIDE). BUT YOU NEVER KNOW SO WAIT FOR CLEAR CUT WEEKLY CLOSING OUTSIDE THE WEDGE.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

STILL BULLISH

On 18 APR it has been mentioned that "  INTERMEDIATE TREND is still down. But today on hourly chart it gave breakout above 5306.75, so now if it gives daily close above 5306.75, INTERMEDIATE TREND will also turn up." WHAT HAPPENED - on 19 Apr it closed at 5332.4, Thus ON Thursday 19 Apr INTERMEDIATE TREND also turned up. SO NOW SHORT, INTERMEDIATE AND LONG ALL TIME FRAMES ARE SHOWING UP TREND.

On Friday 20 Apr. whatever may be the reason ( some say it is trading error ) NIFTY FUTURE intraday made low of 5000, because of which many traders/ investors became nervous.( if interested see link http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/stock-markets/article3336580.ece ). Reliance results which declared on Friday after market timing are not according to expectations, macro-economic fundamentals are yet not suggesting possibility of UP TREND. STILL WE ARE OF THE VIEW THAT THERE IS HIGH PROBABILITY OF UP MOVE AND IN NEXT 2-3 MONTHS NIFTY MAY SEE 5700 LEVEL  AND IF FUNDAMENTALS IMPROVE MAY SEE LEVEL OF 6000 OR NEW LIFE TIME HIGH IN NEXT 1 YEAR OR SO. This view is because  we always follow SCREEN/ CHART/ PRICE ACTION, and as of now it is showing possibility of up up move.

we will not discuss detail technical analysis- why we are bullish, since it may look boring to some of readers. Just giving two technical reasons for bullish view.

1)

PIN BAR

 As shown in above chart NIFTY had made pin bar candlestick pattern on weekly chart ( week ending 30/3/12. And this PIN BAR has formed at very significant pivot point ( YEARLY PIVOT POINT OF NIFTY 5112.)
If anyone interested in reading about PIN BAR CANDLESTICK REVERSAL PATTERN VISIT THIS LINK http://www.forextofreedom.com/pin-bar-candlestick-reversal-pattern  

2)

BULLISH ENGULFING

As shown in above chart this week NIFTY had formed BULLISH ENGULFING PATTERN on weekly chart which again suggest possibility of up move.

If anyone interested in reading about BULLISH ENGULFING PATTERN visit this link http://www.candlestickforum.com/PPF/Parameters/16_441_/candlestick.asp

CAUTION : - AS USUAL U NEVER KNOW WHEN MARKET WILL REVERSE ITS DIRECTION, SO KEEP EYE ON 5135 LEVEL, IF NIFTY GIVES WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 5135 THIS WHOLE VIEW OF LONG TERM UP TREND WILL GET NEGATED AND THERE WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF DOWN SIDE.

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

LAGATA HAI PICTURE ABHI BAKI HAI !!!

Check following 4 posts ---
1) http://www.kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/04/falling-wedge.html
2) http://www.kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/04/alert.html
3) http://www.kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/04/short-term-view_18.html
4) http://www.kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/04/alert-follow-up.html

So what happened today--- today there was gap up opening above upper trend line of falling wedge, but later on NIFTY got sold of and given daily close exactly at 5300.

NIFTY DAILY

We all ready mentioned that if it gives daily close above 5306.75, INTERMEDIATE TREND will also turn up.That means as of now INTERMEDIATE TREND is still down.

 
At the same time SHORT TERM TREND is up, while LONG TERM TREND is sideways to up.

THAT MEANS EVEN THOUGH NIFTY BROKE OUT ABOVE THE UPPER TREND LINE OF FALLING WEDGE THERE IS STILL CONFUSION REGARDING DIRECTION OF MARKET.

AT THE SAME TIME NOTE THAT CHAIKIN MONEY  FLOW AND MONEY FLOW INDEX HAVE GIVEN BREAK OUT ABOVE 0 AND 40 RESPECTIVELY SO THE FUTURE DIRECTION IS MORE LIKELY IN THE UP WARD DIRECTION. BUT YOU NEVER KNOW SO WAIT FOR CLEAR CUT INDICATION.

IN SHORT NIFTY IS IN CONSOLIDATION PHASE SINCE 22 FEB, AND AS OF NOW LOOKS LIKE PICTURE ABHI BAKI HAI, i.e. it will consolidate for few more days, MOST PROBABLY IT WILL GIVE CLEAR INDICATION ON COMING FRIDAY  OR  DURING NEXT WEEK.

These are tough times for traders, lot of traders loose significant amount of money during periods like these and even quite few of them are thrown out of the market. Such periods are so painful that some of the traders never return to market in there life time.

DURING SUCH PERIODS LOT OF PATIENCE, DISCIPLINE IS REQUIRED. DURING SUCH PERIODS IT IS BETTER TO REMAIN OUT SIDE THE MARKET UN TILL THERE IS CLEAR CUT BREAKOUT, AND YOU ARE  SURE REGARDING FURTHER DIRECTION.

 AS USUAL THIS IS OUR PERSONAL VIEW AND VISITORS SHOULD DO THERE OWN ANALYSIS BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISION. 

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

ALERT !!! FOLLOW UP

Please see this post first - http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/04/alert.html

Now what next--- yesterdays rate cut by RBI improved sentiment and SHORT TERM  trend which was down, turned up yesterday.

INTERMEDIATE TREND is still down. But today on hourly chart it gave breakout above 5306.75, so now if it gives daily close above 5306.75, INTERMEDIATE TREND will also turn up.

LONG TERM TREND is at present sideways to mildly bullish ( up ). If NIFTY gives weekly close above 5378.75 it will be firm indication of up trend. CAUTION --- AT the same time keep eye on 5135.95. If it gives weekly close below 5135.95 possibility of further downside to 4800 / 4530 are more.

So in short as of now Indian market is BUY ON DEEPS   .

AS USUAL THIS IS OUR PERSONAL VIEW AND VISITORS SHOULD DO THERE OWN ANALYSIS BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISION. 

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

SHORT TERM VIEW

NIFTY HOURLY

This is hourly chart of NIFTY. Since last 7 trading sessions ( since 9/4/12 ) NIFTY is trading between 5200-5300 band. Yesterdays rate cut by RBI improved sentiment and today NIFTY broke above 5300 so now within 2-3 trading session it may target 5400. ( 5300-5200 = 100, and 5300 + 100 = 5400 )

Before reaching 5400 it may pull back to test 5300 level, which if happens will be best entry point.

AS USUAL THIS IS OUR PERSONAL VIEW AND VISITORS SHOULD DO THERE OWN ANALYSIS BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISION. 

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.