Thursday, August 18, 2011

FOLLOW UP NIFTY IN TRIANGLE AND POSSIBILITY OF NEW HIGH

 We are talking of triangle pattern since last few weeks, on 31 July it has been mentioned that ---
NIFTY IS TRADING IN TIGHT RANGE AND NEARING THE APEX OF TRIANGLE, SO IT MAY GO UP OR DOWN AND SINCE IT IS NEARING APEX CLEAR DIRECTION WILL B RESOLVED IN NEXT 3-4 WEEKS. See the link http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.com/2011/07/nifty-still-in-triangle.html 
       Now if u see the chart given below it has broken down the support line in week ending on 5/8/11
NIFTY TRIANGLE
 So according to as explained in chart since the height of triangle is approx. 1300 points (6350-5050=1300), the target will be 5400-1300=4100, WHICH WILL BE MOST PROBABLY REACHED IN NEXT 13WEEKS FROM WEEK STARTING 8/8/11 I.E.MOST PROBABLY UP TO OCTOBER END. 

Now if you can see the chart below you can note that there is one more chart pattern of  DESCENDING TRIANGLE, which was broken down on 12/8/11 (weekly basis)
NIFTY DESCENDING TRIANGLE
 So as explained in chart the target will be 5200-1150=4050 (Height of triangle6350-5200=1150), MOST PROBABLY THIS WILL REACH WITHIN NEXT 20 WEEKS I.E. BY DECEMBER END.

Eventually it looks like at least in next 6-12 months it should reach the above mentioned target, and most probably fill the ELECTION GAP which was created in May 2009.

THE ABOVE TARGET WILL BE VALID TILL NIFTY TRADES BELOW 5200, IF IT STARTS TRADING ABOVE 5200 WE HAVE TO LOOK FOR ALTERNATE VIEW.

Now you must be thinking about what happened to the possibility of new high we have mentioned previously, but kindly note that we have mentioned clearly that----
 BUT SEEING LAST WEEK CLOSE WE ARE HAVING FEELING OF NIFTY WILL TAKE OUT THESE RESISTANCES WHICH WILL BE MAJOR BREAKOUT FOR NIFTY ( i.e. IT STARTS TRADING ABOVE 5940-50 )  AND POSSIBILITY OF MAKING NEW LIFE TIME HIGH IN THIS FINANCIAL YEAR. BUT THIS VIEW WILL CHANGE IF  ----
1) It breaks today's low of 5791.55
2) daily close below 5693.25
3) weekly close below 5177.70 
        All the three supports mentioned above are eventually broken down, so that view got negated.
The above view of life time high has been mentioned on 26/4/11 in this post http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.com/2011/04/trding-game-of-probability.html

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