IS INTERMEDIATE BOTTOM FORMED?

As mentioned here http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.com/2011/10/range-bound-consolidating-nifty-fifty.html and here http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.com/2011/10/follow-up-rangebound-consolidating.html our dear nifty fifty is consolidating between 4720 and 5230.

In above weekly chart shows that it is consolidating in above mentioned range since last 9 weeks, the ongoing one is 10th week. The longer it stays within this range, the more valid will be breakout from this range which will give trading opportunity for target of 500 points.
         Most of the times consolidation or range breaks in the direction of prior trend which is down trend. So possibility of breaking down is more. Is this consolidation is preparation for bigger fall?  But remember trading is game of probability so think of other possibility i.e. breaking on upside also. REASONS--- 1) Even after so many negative news locally as well as globally it is holding 4720-4750 level, in fact it is bounced thrice from this level, is it tripple bottom formation? 2) As mentioned here http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.com/2011/08/follow-up-nifty-in-triangle-and.html, even after breaking the descending triangle nifty is not fallen much and it is consolidating will it lead to false breakout? The triangle patterns are most of the times successful but 20-25% of times there are chances of failure.

So keep both the possibilities open upside  break out should be associated with good volume ( otherwise it will be false one), for break down there will not be need of good volume support, most probably without volume support also market may fall.

NOTE- RIGHT NOW OUR SYSTEM IS IN BUY MODE.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.