FOLLOW UP 4 - WILL IT REPEAT THE SHOW ONCE AGAIN ? ---- POSSIBILITY OF GOLDEN CROSS ?

On 22/2/12 in this post ( http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/02/short-term-view_22.html ), it has been mentioned that ---
Today's price action suggest that the much awaited correction has been started. Now in coming days nifty is likely to  fall up to 5350-5400 ( which is the break out level ), or it may fall up to 5200. After testing one / both of these level it may regain it's upward journey for target of 5700-5800 and then 5900 -6000.

Today NIFTY all ready reached up to 5406. And interestingly it closed  above breakout level (around 5415), weekly first support (S1 -- 5410.75), and monthly first resistance (R1-- 5416.15), so in spite of yesterday's and today's weakness there may be bounce back on Monday.

ONE MORE INTERESTING THING -- IF IT HAPPENS IT WILL GIVE MORE STRENGTH TO OUR BULLISH VIEW.

   THIS IS LONG TERM DAILY CHART OF NIFTY SINCE MAY 1994, I.E. ALMOST FOR 18 YEARS.

In this chart kindly note that 50 EMA and 200 EMA both are at 5177. If 50 EMA crosses 200 EMA and goes above 200 EMA it is bullish sign ( possibility of uptrend ), the possibility of up trend will get strength. 50 EMA crossing above 200 EMA is known as ''GOLDEN CROSS'' in technical terms.

ALWAYS KEEP THIS IN MIND : - If from this level or after going above 200EMA, 50EMA turns down or remains below 200EMA possibility of sharp fall and even breaching the recent low 4530 will be there.

NOTE : IF NIFTY BREACH 5400-5415 THERE IS POSSIBILITY OF SHARP FALL AND MAY FALL UP TO 200 EMA / 200 SMA WHICH ARE APPROXIMATELY AT 5150-5200 RIGHT NOW.
         NEXT 3-4 WEEKS THERE WILL BE LOT OF NEWS FLOW LIKE --- G.D.P. DATA WILL BE ANNOUNCED ON 29 FEB., OUTCOME OF U.P. ELECTION RESULTS, UNION BUDGET PROBABLY ON 16 MARCH, SO THERE WILL BE LOT OF VOLATILITY IN COMING 3-4 WEEKS.

 CAUTION : - EVEN THOUGH TECHNICALLY OUR MARKET IS LOOKING BULLISH, THERE IS NO IMPROVEMENT IN FUNDAMENTALS. BUT AS PER SAYING FOLLOW TECHNICALS  (CHART) FUNDAMENTALS (NEWS) WILL FOLLOW. SO WE WILL FOLLOW TECHNICALS IF THERE IS NO IMPROVEMENT IN FUNDAMENTALS OUR CHARTS WILL INDICATE POSSIBILITY OF FALL.

  DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.

SHORT TERM VIEW

Today's price action suggest that the much awaited correction has been started. Now in coming days nifty is likely to  fall up to 5350-5400 ( which is the break out level ), or it may fall up to 5200. After testing one / both of these level it may regain it's upward journey for target of 5700-5800 and then 5900 -6000.

NOTE:- This view will get negated if nifty gives daily close above 5630.

Now a days we are not posting charts for short term views because it takes time, whenever time permits or major turnaround happens we will post charts also.

  DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.

INDIA VIX IN BEAR MARKET

As per our analysis INDIA VIX  has entered bear market, so looks like this up move of indian market will continue unless INDIA VIX GIVES weekly close above 31.27

Also as seen in chart there is bearish cross over of 50 and 200 EMA on daily chart of INDIA VIX which is known as DEATH CROSS.

CAUTION : - EVEN THOUGH TECHNICALLY OUR MARKET IS LOOKING BULLISH, THERE IS NO IMPROVEMENT IN FUNDAMENTALS. BUT AS PER SAYING FOLLOW TECHNICALS  (CHART) FUNDAMENTALS (NEWS) WILL FOLLOW. SO WE WILL FOLLOW TECHNICALS IF THERE IS NO IMPROVEMENT IN FUNDAMENTALS OUR CHARTS WILL INDICATE POSSIBILITY OF FALL.

  DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.
 

FOLLOW UP 3 - Will it repeat the show once again ?

Yesterday NIFTY convincingly closed above 5430 and given break out from the range 5320 - 5430, in which it traded for 7 trading sessions. This is third daily close above 5400 level in last 5 trading sessions. So now nifty looks quite bullish. So what are the possible targets ?

As mentioned in previous posts 5700-5800 and then 5900-6000 are the possible targets. But one more interesting pattern has developed on daily chart which gives probable target of 6250. Lets see how?

ROUNDING BOTTOM PATTERN:-

As shown in above chart  daily chart of nifty has formed ROUNDING BOTTOM PATTERN which is bullish pattern. Target for this pattern is 5400 + 800 ( i.e. 5400 - 4600 ) = 6200. Is this possible who knows but as of now technicals suggest that nifty may fly to 6150-6200 in next 2-3 months.
CAUTION :-  Even though nifty given daily close above 5400, it not yet given weekly close above 5400, once it gives weekly close above 5400 the possibility of above targets increases.


If anyone is interested in reading more about rounding bottom pattern here is a link http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:rounding_bottom_reve  

CAUTION:- The above chart is weekly chart of nifty and since JAN 2008 quite a few time nifty has taken support or faced resistance at band shown in blue lines. To be precise it has taken support 3 times, while faced resistance 5 times . In short nifty is trading at very crucial levels from long term perspective so as of now any view should be taken with proper stop loss.

As of now stop loss for any long term investor is weekly close below 4530.
And stop loss for short term trader is daily close below 5320.


 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.

FOLLOW UP 2 - will it repeat the show once again?

Last 3 days NIFTY had closed above 200 SMA , which is bullish sign. Today up till now it made high of 5389.35 (almost reached 5400).  Now if by the end of this week ( i.e. on 10/2 ) it gives weekly close above 5400, then it will first target 5700-5800 and then even 5900-6000. If it gives weekly close above 5400 then high probability that it will target 5900-6000 in next 9 weeks.

CAUTION:- From 2/1/12 nifty is moving in only one direction i.e. up, so be careful as of now stop loss for any long (buy) position is daily close below 5075.

From here onwards it may start its down ward journey also since 5400 is next resistance level. But until it gives daily close below 5075 any fall is correction in ongoing up trend. If it gives daily close below 5075 then intermediate trend will be down.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.

SHORT TERM VIEW

if spot nifty takes out 5215-16 (5min candle on closing basis) it will fly to 5250-60

 AND if it gives hourly close above 5220 possibility of targeting 5350 in next 2-5 trading days.

 stop loss for this todays low 5159.20, to be safe 5155

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.