NIFTY AT CRUCIAL SUPPORT

NIFTY DAILY

The daily chart of NIFTY given above is self explanatory.

The current up move in NIFTY from june 12, taken support every time it closed below 50sma & 50 ema.

See it has taken support at the trend line shown in green colour thrice july, sept & nov 12. Now once again nifty is near this trend line, so it may take support in the region of 5875- 5950.

If it closes below this green trend line for 2-3 days  it may correct up to 5800-5825 which coincides with 100 sma and previous resistance shown in red colour.

So looks like this is buying opportunity. To be on the safer side buy when it gives close above 50 EMA which is right now 5960, with the low formed will be as stop loss.

FOLLOW UP NIFTY AT SUPPORT

On 21 Nov. in this post it has been mentioned that " Also note that if 4700 is taken out as shown in below chart the long term trend line around 4650 may also try to give support." Now see the result as shown in the chart today after breaking 4700, nifty within matter of 10 minutes crashed up to 4640, taken support there and reverse back. This is not coincidence this is power of technical analysis, u can predict future price movements with chart readings.

LONG TERM TREND LINE ON WEEKLY CHART.

Now if  4640 is taken out, it may fall up to 4450-4500. For any up-move 4720-30 will act as resistance.

CAUTION : TOMORROW IS EXPIRY DAY SO NIFTY MAY CLOSE ABOVE 4700 AS PER OPTION DATA ( HIGHEST OPEN INTEREST IN 4700 PUT). AND SINCE IT HAS TAKEN SUPPORT AT LONG TERM TREND LINE IT MAY TRY TO REVERT FROM HERE AND MAY START UP MOVE, AS OF NOW THIS LOOKS VERY REMOTE POSSIBILITY, BUT MARKET MAY TRAP MOST OF PEOPLE ON WRONG SIDE AND MAY MOVE IN OPPOSITE DIRECTION. THIS IS TIME TO BE VERY CAUTIOUS, STICK TO YOUR TRADING PLANS AND BE READY TO CHANGE YOUR VIEWS IF PRICE MOVEMENT SUGGESTS.

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.

NIFTY NEAR SUPPORT

NIFTY : WEEKLY CHART

As shown in the chart nifty is near it's support, which given support many times in past so there is possibility of bounce back. But if 4700 is taken out then next support comes from lower trend line of down trending channel which is approximately at 4450- 4500 level. So if 4700 is taken out it may target 4450-4500. And if it breaks lower trend line then it may feel ELECTION GAP created on 18 may 2009.

Also note that if 4700 is taken out as shown in below chart the long term trend line around 4650 may also try to give support.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.

WILL IT HOLD 5170-80 TODAY?

Due to weak global cues nifty opened gap down today so now the big question is will it hold 5170-80 today( the previous resistance should act as support )

CHART 1 : NIFTY EOD

As shown in the chart 1 previous resistance ( blue line ) may act as support for this fall / correction.

CHART 2 : HOURLY

As shown in hourly chart 2, nifty is range bound whithin 5215- 5315 since 1/11/11,  so now if hourly close is below 52125 it may target 5215-100 =5115 . Also in hourly chart there is descending triangle formation which gives target of 5065.
Also if u observe chart 1 50SMA ( shown in pink colour) is at 5050 on daily chart.

CHART 3 : DAILY

Also as shown in chart 3 5030-40 area is tested so many times so  it will act as support.

So now if on hourly if it closes below 5210-15 it will target 5115.

And today if it closes below 5170-80 may be 20-30 points here & there so if below 5150, being today is last day of week, nifty will become weak and it will target 5050-65.

Conclusion : short term - downtrend target 5115, 5050-65.

                    medium term - uptrend target 5250-60 (50EMA & 50SMA) on hourly chart, 5400 (200SMA on daily chart shown in pink colour in chart 1). Also 5400 is approximate value where downtrend line is acting as resistance on weekly chart since november 2010 as shown in chart 4 below.

CHART 4 : WEEKLY

In short once again nifty will be range bound only in near term and range will be 5050 to 5350-5400 and 5200 being mid point.
NOTE : UNTILL WE PREPARE THIS POST AT 10 AM NIFTY CLOSED AT 5185.50 WHICH IS BELOW 5215, SO IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST IT WILL TARGET 5115 WITHIN 2-3 TRADING SESSIONS.

CHART 5 : WEEKLY, INSIDE BAR

As seen in chart 5 nifty made inside bar last week , low of which is at 5201.85 so  today if it closes below 5201.85 it will be bearish.

SO IN SHORT IN SHORT TERM NIFTY LOOKS WEAK.
DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.

IS THIS BEGINING OF NEW BULL MARKET ?

1)Due to the positive global cues nifty posted weekly gain of  6.15%, & most important thing is that it closed above the resistance line at 5170-5200, which is previously acting as support line. Thus after breaking down the descending triangle on 12/8/11 (weekly closing basis), nifty is back in the triangle.

CHART 1 : NIFTY BACK IN TRIANGLE

So the descending triangle break out which is discussed here http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.com/2011/08/follow-up-nifty-in-triangle-and.html may turn out to be false breakdown.

2) It has been said that bull market is alive above 200 SMA, while bear market is alive below 200 SMA. Now just look the 2 interesting charts.

CHART 2 : 200 SMA WEEKLY CHART

CHART 3 : 200 SMA DAILY CHART

It is seen that nifty is above the 200 sma in weekly chart ( for 1 week i.e. week ending on 26/8/11 it closed below 200 sma but from next week it closed above 200 sma ), that means it is bull market ( uptrend) in weekly time frame. However nifty is below the 200 sma in daily chart, that means it is in bear market (down trend ) in daily time frame. THIS MUST BE THE TECHNICAL REASON WHY NIFTY TRADED WITHIN THE RANGE ( 4700 -5200) FOR 11 WEEKS, WHATEVER MAY BE LOCAL / GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL REASONS.

3) NIFTY made double bottom as shown in the chart below, and broken the resistance line. DOUBLE BOTTOM is bullish pattern.

CHART 4 : DOUBLE BOTTOM

4) As seen in chart 5 nifty broken the 500 point range within which it is trading for 11 weeks, so now it should target 5200 + 500 = 5700.

CHART 5 : NIFTY OUT OF RANGE

5) SO INFERENCE IS THIS MAY BE BEGINNING OF NEW BULL MARKET. FOR THIS UPTREND TO CONTINUE FOLLOWING ARE PREREQUISITES : -
       A) It should start trading above 200 sma on daily chart.
       B) It should start trading above the resistance line of descending triangle which is shown in chart 1.
       C) The previous resistance at 5170-5200 should now act as support for any dip.
       D) AND LAST BUT MOST IMPORTANT THAT IN ANY DIP IT SHOULD HOLD ( SHOULD   NOT BREAK) 4700 LEVEL.
       IF IT BREAKS BELOW 4700 THIS WHOLE VIEW WILL GET NEGATED AND THERE WILL BE SEVERE FALL.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.