? MARCHING TOWARDS 5950, 6175,6300

NIFTY WEEKLY CHART

Last week NIFTY after consolidating in tight range of 5550-5800 almost for 8 weeks finally gave breakout from flag pattern as shown in the chart.

The target for this flag pattern break out comes to be approximately 6275-6300. Whether it will reach this target ? Frankly speaking we don't know. But we will follow charts, AND   as of now there is possibility of it may target 6275-6300 or eventually it may make new life time high. The hurdles for this are shown by 3 red lines in above chart which are at level of approximately 5950, 6175,6300. NIFTY may start correcting/ falling from these levels, but we will see for reversal signals on chart.

As of now long term investor can hold his equity portfolio with stop loss of weekly close below 5548.35

From Dec 2011 on this blog we are repeatedly advising long term investor to buy. In our last post on 21 Oct we have clearly mentioned that "  This may be one more additional opportunity to add for long term investors. In this down trend NIFTY may correct up to 5450-5550, which if comes will be good level for new investment / addition for existing investors. " ( see this link HOLD ON ). NIFTY taken U turn after making low at 5548.35.

Those who have missed the bus can enter now ? Tough question but the answer is if they are willing to take /  afford risk of  7-8 % capital erosion, then they can buy quality stocks/  good diversified equity mutual fund with strict stop loss of weekly close below 5548.35. In simple words if it gives weekly close below 5548.35 you should exit without second thought and wait for next opportunity.

For those who are interested in reading more about FLAG PATTERN here is the link FLAG PATTERN

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

HOLD ON

It is almost one month since our last post, but there are not much changes technically. As mentioned previously medium and long term trend is up. While short term trend is down / correcting. This may be one more additional opportunity to add for long term investors. In this down trend NIFTY may correct up to 5450-5550, which if comes will be good level for new investment / addition for existing investors.

If nifty starts trading below 5450, then it will be early sign for possibility of down trend and we should be cautious.

As of now stop loss for long term investor is 5215.7 on weekly closing basis.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

LONG TERM VIEW --- TECHNICALLY IT IS NEW BULL MARKET ( TEJI )

2 Days back our friend sent following message ----

SILSILA - NIFTY STYLE :

Main aur meri tanhai
Aksar yeh baatein karte hain---
Teji hoti to aisa hota
Teji hoti ti vaisa hota---
Hum yeh lete hum voh lete---
Hum iss scrip ki delivery lete
Hum uss scrip ka future lete---
Magar yeh ho na saka
aur ab yeh aalam hai---
Ki stock bhi nahin aur
margin bharne ke paise bhi nahin ---
Guzar rahi hai zindagi kuch is tarah ---
Jaise usse koi bullish signal ki umeed bhi nahin---
Mai aur meri tanhai
aksar yeh battein karte hain---

BUT FRIENDS TECHNICALLY INDIAN MARKET ALL READY ENTERED NEW BULL MARKET.

FROM DEC 2011 ON THIS BLOG WE ARE ADVISING LONG TERM INVESTORS SHOULD INVEST IN STOCK MARKET DURING CURRENT FALL. HERE ARE SOME LINKS TO OUR POSTS FROM DEC 2011.

1) IS IT RIGHT TIME TO INVEST IN STOCK MARKET FOR LONG TERM INVESTOR ?
2) DRAMA - WILL IT REPEAT THE SHOW ONCE AGAIN ?
3)FOLLOW UP WILL IT REPEAT THE SHOW ONCE AGAIN ?
4)BEGINNING OF NEW BULL MARKET ?  ( As mentioned in this post INDIAVIX given weekly close below support line on 30 march 2012 )
5) INDIA VIX IN BEAR MARKET ( As mentioned in this since last 2-3 weeks we r seeing beginning of positive news flow )
6) NIFTY LONG TERM VIEW UPDATE
7) http://www.kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/06/long-term-view.html
8) http://www.kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/06/follow-up-long-term-view.html
9) LONG TERM VIEW
10) ??? OPPORTUNITY


These are the various links where we repeatedly mentioned and advised regarding long term . Now those who have invested according to these views can hold there investments. As of now if NIFTY gives weekly close below 5215.7 then and then only there is possibility of down trend otherwise this up move will continue with intermittent corrections/ falls. This level will change according to future price action which we will mention on blog so keep following. Now even if NIFTY gives weekly close below 5215.7 those who have invested will exit cost to cost or with some profit.

NOTE:- For investors who have not invested yet --- 1) wait for 2-3% fall/ correction and then invest OR if u are ready to bear loss of 8-10 % for possibility of handsome gain can invest at current level. But word of caution key to success is selection of quality stocks or mutual funds.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

FOLLOW UP SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM VIEW

SHORT TERM VIEW :-

Today at 10 am nifty closed at 5317.35 and since it taken out 5280 successfully,  the view mentioned in this post SHORT TERM VIEW got negated. Now the short term trend also turned up, so short term trader can buy any dips with recent low i.e. 5215.7 as stop loss. NIFTY may retrace i.e. fall back to test 5240-5280 range which if happens may be buying opportunity.

LONG TERM VIEW :-

On 3'rd Sept. in this post ??? OPPORTUNITY we have mentioned that " Right now NIFTY is trading near 5250. And there are high chances that it will take support in the region of 5175-5250 and bounce back. So long term investors can use current fall as opportunity to buy for handsome gain." Right now from short term chart it looks like short term bottom has been formed. But the points mentioned under short term view don't have any importance for long term investors. LONG TERM INVESTORS SHOULD KEEP EYE ON NIFTY LEVEL 5032.4. IF NIFTY DON'T GIVE WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 5032.4 HOLD ON YOUR LONG TERM INVESTMENT OR USE ANY FALL/ DIPS/ CORRECTIONS AS BUYING OPPORTUNITIES. 

As shown in the daily chart above NIFTY tested green trend line and bounced back NOW it may target the red trend lines or once again may fall to test the green trend line in the daily line chart of NIFTY which is not tested yet.  Daily line chart of nifty is shown below.

 

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

 

??? OPPORTUNITY

On 6'th Aug in this post SHORT TERM VIEW  we have mentioned that there is breakout from inverse head and  shoulder and NIFTY will target 5425-5450. On 23/8 it made high of 5248.45 and started correcting from that level.. This is how we can use technical analysis for short term trading.

This post is especially for people who are investing for long term and don't understand about fundamental or technical analysis. Right now NIFTY is trading near 5250. And there are high chances that it will take support in the region of 5175-5250 and bounce back. So long term investors can use current fall as opportunity to buy for handsome gain. The stop loss for this will be weekly close below 5030. So the risk reward ratio is very much favorable, if there is loss it will be only 3-5%.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

??? OPPORTUNITY

NIFTY WEEKLY

As shown in above chart NIFTY came out of bearish ( downtrend ) channel -- shown with 2 red lines and gave bullish ( up trend ) on weekly closing basis on 3/2/12. After that may and June 12 it tested breakout line ( i.e. upper red  line )  and started its up ward journey once again.

After break out right now it is trading  within bullish ( up trending ) chaneel --- which is shown with 2 green lines.

Now it is facing resistance at one more trend line which is shown in blue colour. Now if it gives weekly close above blue trend line long term investors ( for minimum period of 3-4 years ) can buy quality stocks or mutual funds. There is very high chances of doubling capital within next 3-5 years.

CAUTION :-: YOU HAVE TO WAIT FOR CLEAR CUT BREAK OUT ( WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE BLUE TREND LINE ), BUY ONLY IF THERE IS WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE BLUE TREND LINE.

The first target for this target will be upper green line i.e. 5900- 6000

STOP LOSS FOR THIS WILL BE WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 5032.4

CONTRA POSSIBILITY --- right now fundamentals are not supporting this up move. As per saying - " technicals improve first and later on fundamentals follow ", BUT you never know so you should be prepared for contra possibility. SO if it gives weekly close below lower green trend line NIFTY may go to 4000-4100 level.

SO IN SHORT ONE SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS AND IF BUY AFTER WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE BLUE TREND LINE ONE SHOULD SELL ALL HIS STOCKS / MUTUAL FUNDS IF NIFTY GIVES WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 5032.4 AND WAIT PATIENTLY FOR NEXT OPPORTUNITY.
DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

FOLLOW UP --- SHORT TERM N LONG TERM VIEW

As posted on 8 Aug in this link SHORT TERM VIEW , NIFTY started correction and on Friday it took support almost near the breakout trend line.  Now if holds above this trend line and Fridays low, there are chances that once again it will try to resume its up trend. 

As posted on 8 Aug only in this link LONG TERM VIEW , it has been clearly mentioned that " As shown in the chart above there is one more resistance line on weekly chart, near which NIFTY is trading right now. So actually if NIFTY gives weekly close above this trend line, and also weekly close above previous swing pivot i.e. above 5350 ( to be precise above 5348.55), very much  strength will be added to this up move ".

But nifty failed to close above this long term weekly trend line, in fact it got resisted and formed bearish grave stone doji at this trend line and started correcting.

 So as of now long term trend is slightly bullish to sideways, so unless and until it gives weekly close above 5350, long term investors should not buy.

CAUTION:- The blog writers are also learners of technical analysis and the view mentioned here are on blog writers knowledge and inference of technical analysis, so readers are advised to take advice from expert financial advisers or do there own research before taking any decisions.

One more thing we like to mention:- in technical analysis you have to change your views according to future price action or pattern development and writers of this blog may or may not be able to update changed views.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

LONG TERM VIEW

Even though fundamentals of Indian and world economy are not supporting  technicals   are suggesting possibility of long term up move ( at least for next 2-3 years ). In Nov 2010 NIFTY / SENSEX after testing the previous high made in 2008 started there downward journey. And as of now made bottom in DEC 2011.

NIFTY - WEEKLY

The chart given above is weekly chart. During down move from Nov 10, it formed downward moving trend line which acted as resistance for 4 times. Finally in Feb 12 NIFTY able to breakout above the resistance line. After breakout NIFTY tested the trend line in May n June when previous resistance line acted as support.

 As shown in the weekly chart above, NIFTY after breakout above resistance line consolidated ( i.e. traded in a narrow range) and in the process formed a triangle pattern. Yesterday it gave breakout from this triangle pattern on daily closing basis. So now it may target 5550-5600 with intermittent correction, meanwhile it may correct and may test upper boundary of the triangle.
CAUTION:- in market breakouts may fail, and you have to change your views according to future price action with proper stop losses.

  As shown in the chart above there is one more resistance line on weekly chart, near which NIFTY is trading right now. So actually if NIFTY gives weekly close above this trend line, and also weekly close above previous swing pivot i.e. above 5350 ( to be precise above 5348.55), very much  strength will be added to this up move

SO IN SHORT, IF NIFTY GIVES WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE 5350 ONE CAN SAFELY BUY QUALITY STOCKS OR MUTUAL FUNDS FOR INITIAL TARGET OF 5600. AND IF THINGS GO WELL IT MAY TARGET 6300 IN APR-JUNE  QUARTER OF 2013.  

THE STOP LOSS FOR THIS VIEW AS OF NOW IS WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 5030 ( TO BE PRECISE BELOW 5032.40 ). i.e. IF NIFTY GIVES WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 5032.40 YOU SHOULD EXIT ALL YOUR BUY POSITIONS. 

IF NIFTY GIVES WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE THE RESISTANCE LINE AND 5350 THERE WILL BE HIGH PROBABILITY THAT IN NEXT 2-3 YEARS IT MAY REACH 10,000. SO IF IT GIVES WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE THE LEVELS MENTIONED ABOVE AND ONE IS READY TO ACCEPT LOSS OF 6-10% FOR A POSSIBILITY OF DOUBLING CAPITAL WITHIN NEXT 2-3 YEARS ONE CAN BUY QUALITY STOCK / MUTUAL FUND WITH STOP LOSS OF WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 5030.

CAUTION:- The blog writers are also learners of technical analysis and the view mentioned here are on blog writers knowledge and inference of technical analysis, so readers are advised to take advice from expert financial advisers or do there own research before taking any decisions.

One more thing we like to mention:- in technical analysis you have to change your views according to future price action or pattern development and writers of this blog may or may not be able to update changed views.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

LONG TERM VIEW--- WILL NIFTY SEE 5600 WITHIN MONTH ?

The question coming to our mind will nifty see 5600 level by first or second week of Sept ? The answer is yes if and only if it trades above 5030 on weekly closing basis.

If time permits will post detail technical analysis for same later on so please keep following.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

LONG TERM VIEW FOLLOW UP

As mentioned in our last post http://www.kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/07/long-term-view-follow-up.html the profit has been booked at 5320-5350 zone or when NIFTY closed below previous 2 days low i.e. on 12 July at 5235 level. So in terms of index this is 9 % returns. Individual stock / mutual funds may have given returns  in the range of 6-12 %. We think this is not bad during present market situation.

Via long term analysis we are trying to preserve our capital as well as to take advantages of short term up sides. So as of now no position. Right now our advice will buy only if NIFTY gives weekly close above 5378.75.

Those who are willing to take risk can again invest 33% of  capital at current level i.e. 5180-5200 zone with stop loss of 5000 on closing basis.

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

LONG TERM VIEW --- FOLLOW UP

On 18 june in this post FOLLOW UP  it has been advised to either book profit at 5170-5200 zone or keep previous 2 days low as stop loss.

NIFTY DAILY

If u observe daily chart of NIFTY given above u can realize that NIFTY never gave close below previous 2 days low, so now those who are holding buy position from 4800 level can book profit at 5320-5350 zone or can ride this up move by keeping stop loss of close below previous 2 days low.

WHY 5180-5200 ZONE IS IMPORTANT FOR LONG TERM INVESTOR ?

The answer is hidden in the chart given below --- 

NIFTY WEEKLY

  This is weekly chart of NIFTY, it has taken support ( green arrows ) as well as faced resistance ( red arrows ) so many times at this zone.

So those who booked profit can re-enter on pull back to 5200 level and invest 33% of there capital at this level with stop loss of weekly closing below 5000.

For investing for remaining 66% capital will update according to future price action. As of now weekly close above 5380 is important for further decision making.

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

FOLLOW UP --- LONG TERM VIEW

On 1'st June in this post ( http://www.kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/06/long-term-view.html ), we have advised that high risk investors should invest 33% of investible  surplus at 4800-4850 level. On very next trading session ( i.e. 4/6/12 ) it made low of 4770 and started up move.

Right now even though long term trend is now, short term and medium term trend is up. Those who bought arond 4800-4850 should book profit at nifty level of 5200. But to reach level of 5200 it has to clear resistance at 5100-5120 zone. So keep stop loss of previous two days low.

NOTE : - TO TURN LONG TERM TREND UP NIFTY SHOULD GIVE WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE 5378.75. 

Since there is  GLOOM N DOOM scenario all over world right now, in long term view we are trying to capitalize on short / medium term rebounds, at the same time we will be fully invested whenever there is long term up trend. In this effort we may have to take small losses, but the main objective is we will try to preserve our capital at the same time we will not miss the  long term opportunity.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

LONG TERM VIEW

It is more than one month from our last post. In last month we were away from market, internet almost for more than 15 days and also due to hectic work schedule it was not possible to update.

Even though we have not updated, in our last post  ( see link http://www.kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/04/nothing-new-range-bound.html ) we have clearly mentioned that "  (B) FOR DOWN SIDE BREAK OUT
      Daily close below 5183.5 will be first indication that there is possibility of down side.
      Weekly close below 5135.95 will be more confirmatory sign for downside."

Those who have followed these levels mentioned in our last post must have benefited

See what happened actually --- on Friday 4/5/12 it gave daily close below 5183.5, as well as weekly close below 5135.95 which was clear cut indication for exiting long term investments. After that within 10 trading sessions nifty made low of 4788.95 ( on 18/5/12 ).

 THERE IS LONG TERM TREND LINE SUPPORT AS WELL AS 200SMA ON WEEKLY CHART IN THE REGION OF 4800-4850  ( which has all ready given support once ) . AT THE SAME TIME RIGHT NOW TREND ON DAILY, WEEKLY AS WELL AS MONTHLY TIME FRAME IS DOWN SO CHANCES OF BREAKING OF THIS SUPPORT ARE VERY HIGH. BECAUSE OF WHICH TESTING OF  LOW MADE IN DEC 11 ARE VERY HIGH ( 4500- 4600 ZONE )

SO NOW PLAN FOR LONG TERM INVESTMENT --

( A) For high risk investor --- those who can digest 20-30% erosion ( on paper ) in there capital should put 33% of investible  surplus in good diversified equity mutual funds or fundamentally good stocks  at following three levels --- 

        1) 4800-4850

        2) 4400

        3) 3900-4000

( B) For conservative investor --- whenever there is confirmed up trend on weekly charts. Until it happens park your money in short term F.D. or liquid mutual funds.

Those who have acted according to our posts on (1) 24 jan 12 ( possibility of starting new bull market, which actually happened because of weekly close above 27/1/12). So those who invested in good mutual funds on next trading session and exited  according to our post  (2) 29/4/12 once it has given weekly close below 5135.95 9 ( on 4/5/12 so exit should be on next trading session i.e. 7/5/12 ) must have made profit of  3-10%.

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

STILL BULLISH

On 18 APR it has been mentioned that "  INTERMEDIATE TREND is still down. But today on hourly chart it gave breakout above 5306.75, so now if it gives daily close above 5306.75, INTERMEDIATE TREND will also turn up." WHAT HAPPENED - on 19 Apr it closed at 5332.4, Thus ON Thursday 19 Apr INTERMEDIATE TREND also turned up. SO NOW SHORT, INTERMEDIATE AND LONG ALL TIME FRAMES ARE SHOWING UP TREND.

On Friday 20 Apr. whatever may be the reason ( some say it is trading error ) NIFTY FUTURE intraday made low of 5000, because of which many traders/ investors became nervous.( if interested see link http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/stock-markets/article3336580.ece ). Reliance results which declared on Friday after market timing are not according to expectations, macro-economic fundamentals are yet not suggesting possibility of UP TREND. STILL WE ARE OF THE VIEW THAT THERE IS HIGH PROBABILITY OF UP MOVE AND IN NEXT 2-3 MONTHS NIFTY MAY SEE 5700 LEVEL  AND IF FUNDAMENTALS IMPROVE MAY SEE LEVEL OF 6000 OR NEW LIFE TIME HIGH IN NEXT 1 YEAR OR SO. This view is because  we always follow SCREEN/ CHART/ PRICE ACTION, and as of now it is showing possibility of up up move.

we will not discuss detail technical analysis- why we are bullish, since it may look boring to some of readers. Just giving two technical reasons for bullish view.

1)

PIN BAR

 As shown in above chart NIFTY had made pin bar candlestick pattern on weekly chart ( week ending 30/3/12. And this PIN BAR has formed at very significant pivot point ( YEARLY PIVOT POINT OF NIFTY 5112.)
If anyone interested in reading about PIN BAR CANDLESTICK REVERSAL PATTERN VISIT THIS LINK http://www.forextofreedom.com/pin-bar-candlestick-reversal-pattern  

2)

BULLISH ENGULFING

As shown in above chart this week NIFTY had formed BULLISH ENGULFING PATTERN on weekly chart which again suggest possibility of up move.

If anyone interested in reading about BULLISH ENGULFING PATTERN visit this link http://www.candlestickforum.com/PPF/Parameters/16_441_/candlestick.asp

CAUTION : - AS USUAL U NEVER KNOW WHEN MARKET WILL REVERSE ITS DIRECTION, SO KEEP EYE ON 5135 LEVEL, IF NIFTY GIVES WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 5135 THIS WHOLE VIEW OF LONG TERM UP TREND WILL GET NEGATED AND THERE WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF DOWN SIDE.

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

ALERT !!! FOLLOW UP

Please see this post first - http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/04/alert.html

Now what next--- yesterdays rate cut by RBI improved sentiment and SHORT TERM  trend which was down, turned up yesterday.

INTERMEDIATE TREND is still down. But today on hourly chart it gave breakout above 5306.75, so now if it gives daily close above 5306.75, INTERMEDIATE TREND will also turn up.

LONG TERM TREND is at present sideways to mildly bullish ( up ). If NIFTY gives weekly close above 5378.75 it will be firm indication of up trend. CAUTION --- AT the same time keep eye on 5135.95. If it gives weekly close below 5135.95 possibility of further downside to 4800 / 4530 are more.

So in short as of now Indian market is BUY ON DEEPS   .

AS USUAL THIS IS OUR PERSONAL VIEW AND VISITORS SHOULD DO THERE OWN ANALYSIS BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISION. 

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

ALERT !!!

Since Dec-Jan we  had bullish bias for Indian markets, but this week's closing price is giving us warning. Now we will say that the TREND is sideways from long term perspective.UNLESS NIFTY GIVES WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE 5380-5400 THE POSSIBILITY OF RESUMING UP TREND IS LOW.

AT THE SAME TIME IF IT GIVES WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 5135 POSSIBILITY OF FURTHER DOWNSIDE ARE HIGH.

If it gives weekly close below 5135 what are the possibilities -----
(1) It will go below 5135, weak hands will be thrown out of the market, and then it will resume it's up trend.
(2) It may make base formation around one of these levels 5000-5050 or 4800 or even test Dec 2011 level of 4530, and then once again start moving up.
(3) In worst case scenario it may go below 4530, will fill the ELECTION GAP created in MAY 2009 ( i.e. 3600-3900 ) level.
(4)will  remain sideways between 5000 and 5400 for few more months, and will resume up trend.
(5) will trade between 4500- 5600 for 2-3 years, and then resume up trend. THIS WILL BE MOST REWARDING SITUATION FOR LONG TERM OR S.I.P. INVESTORS.


SO WHAT SHOULD BE DONE ?
PLAN OF ACTION -------
( A ) If u are trader --- follow your system, be disciplined and follow stop losses strictly.
( B ) If u are short term investor ( for few months to 1-2 year ), exit equity if NIFTY gives weekly close below 5135, and invest when there is clear cut up trend according to technical analysis.
( C ) If you are long term investor ( more than 10 years ), then hold on your existing investment and continue / start investment via S.I.P. route in quality stocks or few good mutual funds.

NOTE --- WE ARE NOT GIVING DETAIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FOR THIS VIEW, TRYING TO EXPLAIN IT IN SIMPLE WORDS. WATCH THE LEVELS GIVEN ABOVE, AND SEE HOW NIFTY REACTS AROUND THESE LEVELS, IT WILL BE INTERESTING.

AS USUAL THIS IS OUR PERSONAL VIEW AND VISITORS SHOULD DO THERE OWN ANALYSIS BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISION. 

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

FALLING WEDGE

NIFTY DAILY

The above chart is E.O.D. NIFTY chart, which shows falling wedge pattern is in making. Falling wedge is bullish pattern, i.e. suggests possibility of continuation of  long term up trend. This possibility will be confirmed once NIFTY gives daily close above trend line 1.

 NOTE : - At the same time if it gives daily close below trend line 2, this view will get negated. ( i.e. if it gives daily close below trend line 2, it will be pattern failure ).

 SO LONG TERM INVESTORS CAN BUY TILL NIFTY IS TRADING WITHIN THE FALLING WEDGE ( BETWEEN TWO TREND LINES ) WITH STOP LOSS CLOSE BELOW TREND LINE 2. 

ONCE NIFTY GIVES DAILY CLOSE ABOVE TREND LINE 1, TRAIL ( SHIFT THIS STOP LOSS TO DAILY CLOSE BELOW TREND LINE 1, SO THAT CHANCES OF LOSS WILL BECOME ZERO.

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

GOOD NEWS --- LONG TERM VIEW FOLLOW UP

On 24 Jan in this post http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/01/drama-will-it-repeat-show-once-again.html , AND on 29 Jan in this post  http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/01/follow-up-will-it-repeat-show-once.html, we have mentioned the possibility of starting new Indian bull market ( up trend ). Now everybody may be agree that it has started. After that NIFTY made high of 5629.95  on 22 Feb, and started correcting and last week made low of   5135.95.

WHAT IS GOOD NEWS--- If someone bought according to above view on 30 Jan. chances of making loss now became zero since unless and until NIFTY gives weekly close below 5135.95, up trend of Indian market will remain intact. So if don't want to bear loss exit if nifty gives weekly close below 5135.95.  Even if someone exits if nifty gives weekly close below 5135.95,  he will exit with profit.

NOW IDEALLY WHAT SHOULD BE DONE  NEXT ? ----

So because of above view if anybody bought stocks/ mutual funds on 30 Jan what r the returns right now and what r future possibilities.

For this first we will see returns of nifty, sensex and some mutual funds from 30 Jan to 4 Apr.

NIFTY  --- 4.63 %
SENSEX --- 3.69 %
DSP BR EQUITY FUND --- 8.27 %
FRANKLIN INDIA BLUECHIP --- 5.86 %
ICICI PRUDENTIAL TOP 100 --- 5.65 %

TATA PURE EQUITY --- 7.01 %

HDFC TOP 200 --- 6.96 %

ICICI PRU DYNAMIC --- 7.07 %

ICICI PRUDENTIAL DISCOVERY --- 10.62 %

IDFC PREMIER EQUITY --- 8.40 %

RELIANCE EQUITY OPPORTUNITIES --- 10.48 %

HDFC EQUITY --- 8.31 %

FRANKLIN INDIA PRIMA PLUS --- 8.04 %

SBI MAGNUM CONTRA --- 7.81 %

RELIANCE GROWTH  --- 7.74 %

Now last 2 weeks price action suggest that unless and until NIFTY gives weekly close below 5135, this ongoing up trend will remain intact. SO -----
(A) If someone has bought on 30 Jan for  long term ( for at least 4-5 years) hold on this investments. Even though nifty goes below 5135, don't exit, and if possible add at level of 5000-5050. In worst case scenario even though nifty goes below 4500, don't panic, if u have invested for long term ( once again repeating at least for 4-5 years ).
(B) If someone has bought for short to medium term ( few weeks to 1-2 years ), then exit ur investment if nifty gives weekly close below 5135, and try to invest when next up trend starts according to technical analysis.
(C) For fresh investments, invest at current level with stop loss weekly close below 5135.

NOTE : -THIS LEVEL OF 5135 WILL CHANGE LATER ON ACCORDING TO FUTURE PRICE ACTION.

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.

NIFTY - LONG TERM VIEW UPDATE

Yesterday short term trend changed to down, today intermediate also turned down, so what next ?

NIFTY WEEKLY CHART

 Now looks like our NIFTY FIFTY will test the upper trend line of down trending channel on weekly chart, which is approximately 5000-5050 level. After testing this level if NIFTY turns up then it will be very healthy for Indian market for up move. IN SHORT : - IT IS GIVING OPPORTUNITY TO BUY FOR LONG TERM INVESTORS.
5000-5050 level get tested in next 1-1.5 month period.

CAUTION : - but at the same time if it starts trading in down trending channel once again, then it may have negative impact and this view will get negated. If it starts trading in channel once again, there will be possibility of testing lows (4530) made in DEC 11, or it may start trading in range so that there will be time correction.

NOTE:- AS OF NOW STOP LOSS FOR LONG TERM INVESTOR IS WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 4530. kindly note this level may change according to future price action.

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.

FOLLOW UP 5 - WILL IT REPEAT THE SHOW ONCE AGAIN ?

On 5'th march in this link http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/03/follow-up-nifty-in-triangle.html it has been mentioned that- "So now it looks like that, it will target 5100, at least 5200 this week." and once again as per expectation last week it made low of 5171.45.
          As we are mentioning repeatedly on this blog Indian market is entering new bull market. We first posted regarding this possibility on 24 Jan 2012 ( see link - http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/01/drama-will-it-repeat-show-once-again.html ). Now one by one it is giving new clues and confirming that it is  bull market.

According to technical analysis BULLS ( UPTREND) lives above 200 SMA ( or 200 EMA) and BEARS (DOWNTREND) lives below  200 SMA ( or 200 EMA). Now last week even though short term trend is down after correction NIFTY taken support around 200 SMA and EMA ( see chart)



         On 24 Feb we mentioned regarding possibility of GOLDEN CROSS  in this post ( link - http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/02/follow-up-4-will-it-repeat-show-once.html ) which has been all ready happened.

        In technical analysis some traders/ investors look for exponential moving averages (E.M.A.), while some look for simple moving averages (S.M.A.)
        Now see the chart below and what happened yesterday -----

 You can see that  50 SMA crossed above  200 SMA yesterday that means one more GOLDEN CROSS happened yesterday. Thus one more clue got confirmed that we are in BULL MARKET. 

SHORT TERM VIEW -- Now if yesterdays low (5327.55) is not broken  then NIFTY will target 5500 in this week ( on 14'th march inflation data will be out, on 15'th R.B.I. policy and on 16'th  UNION BUDGET will be there so possibility of lot of volatility during this week so short term traders should follow there stop losses strictly).

LONG TERM VIEW --- As we have mentioned on 24'th Jan (http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/01/drama-will-it-repeat-show-once-again.html )  our market has entered new bull market and even though state election results not boosted market sentiments hold your investments, and if your risk profile and capital allows buy on every dips ( corrections) and hold on till long term trend is up.
Eventually looks like NIFTY will target 5500, 5700, 6000 and may even make new life time high till MARCH 2013.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.