POSSIBILITY OF FAST RISE

Friday's close and ema setup on EOD chart suggesting fast rise will it happen? we will wait and watch for the answer.  Right now not having access to desktop/ laptop hence will post the chart later on when time permits.

Now at 3:35pm posting the EOD chart

NIFTY EOD

CLOSED TRADE NO.5, INITIATED TRADE NO.6

Today at 3:30 pm cosed trade no.5 and initiated trade no. 6 i.e. sell @5553.75 

CLOSED TRADE NO.4, INITIATED TRADE NO.5

ON 26/5 AT 1:00PM CLOSED TRADE NO. 5 (BUY @ 5395.3 WITH PROFIT OF 32.9 POINTS.

AT THE SAME TIME WE INITIATED FRESH BUY POSITION , REMEMBER THIS TRADE IS AGAINST TREND WHICH IS DOWN ON DAILY & WEEKLY TIME FRAME. WE TAKE TRADES AGAINST TREND VERY RARELY WHENEVER OUR SYSTEM TELLS SO, THIS IS ACCORDING TO OUR IMPROVED STRATEGY WHICH WE TRIED TO IMPROVE TO AVOID HUGE LOSSES THAT HAPPENED IN TRADE NO. 1.

IN LAST 10-15 DAYS LOT OF TRADING PATTERN HAPPENED IN NIFTY WHICH ARE UNABLE TO UPDATE DUE TO TIME PROBLEM, WILL MOST PROBABLY TRY TO EXPLAIN ON COMING SUNDAY.

TRADE NO.4

ON 23/5/2011 AT 10:00AM SELL @ 5428.3

TRADE NO.3

ON 12/5 2011 AT 3:00 PM SELL @ 5486.3
ON 20/5/2011 AT 10:00AM BUY @ 5487 .9

LOSS OF 1.6 POINTS

SECOND TRADE CLOSED

Yesterday at 12 noon our system indicated to exit sell position at 5521.5, SO EXITED WITH  profit of 12.8 points.

PROBABLE REASON FOR LOSS IN FIRST RADE

RECEIVED FOLLOWING EMAIL FROM FRIEND YESTERDAY

On 26th April 2011 there was a managed transaction in Nifty futures @ 5393, which is 400 points below MiniNifty low @ 5793. From that day onwards Nifty was closing in red for the last 9 days and now Nifty is approaching "that freak figure". Open Interest of Puts at strike price 5400 is the highest (5,401,300)today. Both these facts indicate that there was a big attempt to take down the Nifty to the desired levels of some of the BIG operators, which is against the interest of common people and small traders. For the safety of the interests of retail investor SEBI MUST investigate the said issue points and take appropriate remedial measures.
************ So Pl Send EMAIL TO SEBI in thismatter *********.

1)How above mentioned transaction took place when there was lakhs of entries?
2)Whether there is any inbuilt in mechanism to prevent such erroneous transactions?
3)Who are the parties to that transaction ? Who(buyer or seller) entered that figure and who benefited. Volume of that transaction? Any action taken by NSE/SEBI.
4)What are the checks to be incorporated in trading software to prevent such transactions in future.

NOTE:- DON'T KNOW IS THIS REALLY HAPPENED SINCE WE ARE USING ICHARTS FOR OUR CHART ANALYSIS AND THESE CHART ARE SHOWING 5793 AS LOW ON 26 APRIL FOR NIFTY FUTURE . MAY BE BECAUSE OF THIS MANIPULATION THERE IS DEEP LOSS IN OUR FIRST TRADE BUT THIS HELPED US TO ANALYZE OUR SYSTEM ONCE AGAIN AND WE FOUND SOLUTION TO AVOID SUCH LOSSES WHICH IS POSITIVE THING FOR US, AND WHICH WILL HELP US IN FUTURE IN OUR TRADES.

WE CHECKED NSE  SITE WHICH SHOWED FOLLOWING DETAILS --
see the link for nifty future on 26-4-2011 http://www.nseindia.com/content/fo/contractvol/datafiles/FUTIDX_NIFTY_26-04-2011_TO_26-04-2011.csv
 after checking nse site we realised that information provided in above mail is correct.

SO THIS MAY BE REASON WHY OUR SYSTEM FAILED TO RECOGNISE TREND CHANGE EARLY BCAUSE IN CHARTS WHICH WE ARE USING SHOWING LOW OF 5973, IF THE LOW HAD BEEN 5393,  INFERENCE HAD BEEN DIFFERENT. BUT SINCE WE ANALYZED AND BACK TESTED OUR SYSTEM ONCE AGAIN AND FOUND THAT WE CAN MINIMIZE SUCH LOSING TRADE IF WE USE ADDITIONAL INDICATORS FOR FILTERING, THIS IS POSITIVE OUTCOME FOR US. SO IF WE HAVE USED THIS FILTERS WE HAD EXITED OUR FIRST TRADE AT 5833.90 ( LOSS OF   22.9 POINTS ONLY) AND WOULD HAVE INITIATED SECOND TRADE AT 5833.9 WHICH SHOULD HAVE GIVEN US PROFIT OF 312.4 POINTS. WE ARE NOT GIVING EXCUSES FOR OUR LOSS BUT TRYING TO SHOW HOW WE CAN IMPROVE IF WE WORK HARD AND TRY TO LEARN.
 In performance sheet there will not be  any changes made, we will keep loss as it is , and see how is the performance including this loss after certain time period only. 

SOMETIMES THERE ARE MANIPULATIONS IN MARKET, WHICH ARE NOT EASY TO DO ALWAYS FOR PEOPLE'S WHO ARE DOING SUCH THINGS, THERE IS NO NEED TO STAY AWAY FROM MARKET BECAUSE OF POSSIBILITY OF MANIPULATIONS, BUT IF U CAN TRY HARD U CAN LEARN HOW TO HANDLE SUCH SITUATIONS.

FIRST TRADE CLOSED WITH LOSS, SECOND TRADE INITIATED

Today at 11 am our system indicated change of trend hence closed first trade with loss, we will try to evaluate and minimise such loosing trades. At the same time second trade initiated - sell at 5534.30 which looks like to late but we will see what is in store?

FOLLOW UP - WHAT WILL HAPPEN?, FIRST RADE

On 2 MAY we have written regarding what will happen with help of few charts, In first chart it has been shown that trendline which is supporting in hourly chart was allready broken, also it has mentioned that 5690-5700 is important support which broken intraday ON 3 MAY, after that nifty fallen upto 5550 within single day. This proves that if you learn technical analysis and try to evaluate the things you can trade very well. This fall is after RBI credit policy which raised interest rates, but if you learn technical analysis there is no need to track the news, what will it's impact on economy, stock market , all this will b reflected in charts. Once again we will like to mention that we are not trading according to this techniques because this will require full monitoring of charts during market hours, and take or change your view according to changes taking place in charts. RIGHT NOW YESTARDAY DAILY CLOSE WAS AT IMPORTANT SUPPORT ONCE AGAIN, SO HERE AGAIN THERE IS POSSIBILITY OF BOUNCE BACK OR BREAKING THE SUPPORT.

What is happened to our first trade? It is still in buy mode according to our system, so the position is in deep loss on paper right now, right now looking possibility of we have to close the position with loss, but this will b done only after our system tells that there is change of trend. REMEMBER THIS SYSTEM IS DEVELOPED SO THAT IT WILL REQUIRE LESS MONITORING,

INITIATED FIRST TRADE

Today at 1pm mr. market told us to buy nifty so bought NIFTY~F:2-MONTH (26MAY2011) AT 5904.
So the possibility which told here ( http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.com/2011/04/first-trade.html ) became the reality within two trading sessions.

FIRST TRADE

Possiblity of initiating first trade of this financial year has been increased due to todays price action, most probably this will happen in coming 4-5 days, likely it will b on buy side, let MR. MARKET will tell us when to buy, uptill then wait patiently.

NOTE- DON'T TRADE ACCORDING TO THIS RIGHT NOW POSTS MAY B DELYAED.