Today because of global cues it looks like market will open lower ( NIFTY around 5390 ), this will be opportunity to buy. Stop loss will be as mentioned in previous posts.
DISCLAIMER: This
Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be
taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own
research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.
Showing posts with label FOLLOW UP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label FOLLOW UP. Show all posts
Wednesday, August 22, 2012
Tuesday, August 21, 2012
FOLLOW UP OPPORTUNITY
On Friday 17 Aug, in this post --- ??? OPPORTUNITY advised to buy if nifty gives weekly close above blue trend line ( SEE CHART ). But nifty didn't gave clear cut break out above the blue trend line.
However it closed above the previous swing high on weekly chart. So this market is now BUY ON DEEPS from long term perspective. So any fall should be bought.
Right now the trend on hourly chart is down / sideways. While on daily and weekly chart it is in up trend. So any fall / correction is buying opportunity. The stop loss for short term investors ( few weeks to months ) will be daily close below 5294, while for long term investors ( for more than 2-3 years ) stop loss will be weekly close below 5032.
DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.
However it closed above the previous swing high on weekly chart. So this market is now BUY ON DEEPS from long term perspective. So any fall should be bought.
Right now the trend on hourly chart is down / sideways. While on daily and weekly chart it is in up trend. So any fall / correction is buying opportunity. The stop loss for short term investors ( few weeks to months ) will be daily close below 5294, while for long term investors ( for more than 2-3 years ) stop loss will be weekly close below 5032.
DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.
Sunday, August 12, 2012
FOLLOW UP --- SHORT TERM N LONG TERM VIEW
As posted on 8 Aug in this link SHORT TERM VIEW , NIFTY started correction and on Friday it took support almost near the breakout trend line. Now if holds above this trend line and Fridays low, there are chances that once again it will try to resume its up trend.
As posted on 8 Aug only in this link LONG TERM VIEW , it has been clearly mentioned that " As shown in the chart above there is one more resistance line on weekly chart, near which NIFTY is trading right now. So actually if NIFTY gives weekly close above this trend line, and also weekly close above previous swing pivot i.e. above 5350 ( to be precise above 5348.55), very much strength will be added to this up move ".
But nifty failed to close above this long term weekly trend line, in fact it got resisted and formed bearish grave stone doji at this trend line and started correcting.
So as of now long term trend is slightly bullish to sideways, so unless and until it gives weekly close above 5350, long term investors should not buy.
CAUTION:- The blog writers are also learners of technical analysis and the view mentioned here are on blog writers knowledge and inference of technical analysis, so readers are advised to take advice from expert financial advisers or do there own research before taking any decisions.
One more thing we like to mention:- in technical analysis you have to change your views according to future price action or pattern development and writers of this blog may or may not be able to update changed views.
DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.
As posted on 8 Aug only in this link LONG TERM VIEW , it has been clearly mentioned that " As shown in the chart above there is one more resistance line on weekly chart, near which NIFTY is trading right now. So actually if NIFTY gives weekly close above this trend line, and also weekly close above previous swing pivot i.e. above 5350 ( to be precise above 5348.55), very much strength will be added to this up move ".
But nifty failed to close above this long term weekly trend line, in fact it got resisted and formed bearish grave stone doji at this trend line and started correcting.
So as of now long term trend is slightly bullish to sideways, so unless and until it gives weekly close above 5350, long term investors should not buy.
CAUTION:- The blog writers are also learners of technical analysis and the view mentioned here are on blog writers knowledge and inference of technical analysis, so readers are advised to take advice from expert financial advisers or do there own research before taking any decisions.
One more thing we like to mention:- in technical analysis you have to change your views according to future price action or pattern development and writers of this blog may or may not be able to update changed views.
DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.
Monday, July 16, 2012
LONG TERM VIEW FOLLOW UP
As mentioned in our last post http://www.kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/07/long-term-view-follow-up.html the profit has been booked at 5320-5350 zone or when NIFTY closed below previous 2 days low i.e. on 12 July at 5235 level. So in terms of index this is 9 % returns. Individual stock / mutual funds may have given returns in the range of 6-12 %. We think this is not bad during present market situation.
Via long term analysis we are trying to preserve our capital as well as to take advantages of short term up sides. So as of now no position. Right now our advice will buy only if NIFTY gives weekly close above 5378.75.
Those who are willing to take risk can again invest 33% of capital at current level i.e. 5180-5200 zone with stop loss of 5000 on closing basis.
DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.
Via long term analysis we are trying to preserve our capital as well as to take advantages of short term up sides. So as of now no position. Right now our advice will buy only if NIFTY gives weekly close above 5378.75.
Those who are willing to take risk can again invest 33% of capital at current level i.e. 5180-5200 zone with stop loss of 5000 on closing basis.
DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.
Sunday, July 1, 2012
LONG TERM VIEW --- FOLLOW UP
On 18 june in this post FOLLOW UP it has been advised to either book profit at 5170-5200 zone or keep previous 2 days low as stop loss.
If u observe daily chart of NIFTY given above u can realize that NIFTY never gave close below previous 2 days low, so now those who are holding buy position from 4800 level can book profit at 5320-5350 zone or can ride this up move by keeping stop loss of close below previous 2 days low.
WHY 5180-5200 ZONE IS IMPORTANT FOR LONG TERM INVESTOR ?
The answer is hidden in the chart given below ---
This is weekly chart of NIFTY, it has taken support ( green arrows ) as well as faced resistance ( red arrows ) so many times at this zone.
So those who booked profit can re-enter on pull back to 5200 level and invest 33% of there capital at this level with stop loss of weekly closing below 5000.
For investing for remaining 66% capital will update according to future price action. As of now weekly close above 5380 is important for further decision making.
DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.
 |
| NIFTY DAILY |
WHY 5180-5200 ZONE IS IMPORTANT FOR LONG TERM INVESTOR ?
The answer is hidden in the chart given below ---
 |
| NIFTY WEEKLY |
So those who booked profit can re-enter on pull back to 5200 level and invest 33% of there capital at this level with stop loss of weekly closing below 5000.
For investing for remaining 66% capital will update according to future price action. As of now weekly close above 5380 is important for further decision making.
DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.
FOLLOW UP SHORT TERM VIEW
According to this post SHORT TERM VIEW NIFTY gave hourly close above 5190-5200 on Friday. So now it may target 5320-5350, even 5400 may be possible.
Short term traders should keep stop loss of hourly closing below 5190.
DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.
Short term traders should keep stop loss of hourly closing below 5190.
DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.
Monday, June 18, 2012
FOLLOW UP
On Sunday 10 June, in this post FOLLOW UP --- LONG TERM VIEW , it has been advised to book profit at nifty level of 5200. Last week after consolidation for 4 days finally on Friday nifty closed at 5139.05
Now there is strong resistance for nifty in 5170-5200 range. So those who don't want to take risk and willing to lock profit in this 5170-5200 zone. ( probably today only during opening hour ).
At the same time if nifty breaks this 5170-5200 zone it may easily go up to 5300-5400. So those who are willing to loose some part from profit for chances of making more profit can ride the ongoing up trend with stop loss of previous 2 days low.
Today there will be RBI policy announcement so market will be volatile, if there is positive surprise it may go much higher. At the same time if there is disappointment chances of testing recent low around 4770-4800 band are also high. So as of now those who are willing to take risk keep strict stop loss of previous 2 days low on daily closing basis and ride this wave.
Those who are not willing to take risk book profit. New entry level will be mentioned later on if there is correction and if there is no correction one can enter once again if there is weekly close above 5378.75 since long term trend will turn up.
DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.
Now there is strong resistance for nifty in 5170-5200 range. So those who don't want to take risk and willing to lock profit in this 5170-5200 zone. ( probably today only during opening hour ).
At the same time if nifty breaks this 5170-5200 zone it may easily go up to 5300-5400. So those who are willing to loose some part from profit for chances of making more profit can ride the ongoing up trend with stop loss of previous 2 days low.
Today there will be RBI policy announcement so market will be volatile, if there is positive surprise it may go much higher. At the same time if there is disappointment chances of testing recent low around 4770-4800 band are also high. So as of now those who are willing to take risk keep strict stop loss of previous 2 days low on daily closing basis and ride this wave.
Those who are not willing to take risk book profit. New entry level will be mentioned later on if there is correction and if there is no correction one can enter once again if there is weekly close above 5378.75 since long term trend will turn up.
DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.
Sunday, June 10, 2012
FOLLOW UP --- LONG TERM VIEW
On 1'st June in this post ( http://www.kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/06/long-term-view.html ), we have advised that high risk investors should invest 33% of investible surplus at 4800-4850 level. On very next trading session ( i.e. 4/6/12 ) it made low of 4770 and started up move.
Right now even though long term trend is now, short term and medium term trend is up. Those who bought arond 4800-4850 should book profit at nifty level of 5200. But to reach level of 5200 it has to clear resistance at 5100-5120 zone. So keep stop loss of previous two days low.
DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.
Right now even though long term trend is now, short term and medium term trend is up. Those who bought arond 4800-4850 should book profit at nifty level of 5200. But to reach level of 5200 it has to clear resistance at 5100-5120 zone. So keep stop loss of previous two days low.
NOTE : - TO TURN LONG TERM TREND UP NIFTY SHOULD GIVE WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE 5378.75.
Since there is GLOOM N DOOM scenario all over world right now, in long term view we are trying to capitalize on short / medium term rebounds, at the same time we will be fully invested whenever there is long term up trend. In this effort we may have to take small losses, but the main objective is we will try to preserve our capital at the same time we will not miss the long term opportunity.
DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.
Friday, April 6, 2012
GOOD NEWS --- LONG TERM VIEW FOLLOW UP
On 24 Jan in this post http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/01/drama-will-it-repeat-show-once-again.html , AND on 29 Jan in this post http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/01/follow-up-will-it-repeat-show-once.html, we have mentioned the possibility of starting new Indian bull market ( up trend ). Now everybody may be agree that it has started. After that NIFTY made high of 5629.95 on 22 Feb, and started correcting and last week made low of 5135.95.
NOW IDEALLY WHAT SHOULD BE DONE NEXT ? ----
So because of above view if anybody bought stocks/ mutual funds on 30 Jan what r the returns right now and what r future possibilities.
For this first we will see returns of nifty, sensex and some mutual funds from 30 Jan to 4 Apr.
NIFTY --- 4.63 %
SENSEX --- 3.69 %
DSP BR EQUITY FUND --- 8.27 %
FRANKLIN INDIA BLUECHIP --- 5.86 %
ICICI PRUDENTIAL TOP 100 --- 5.65 %
WHAT IS GOOD NEWS--- If someone bought according to above view on 30 Jan. chances of making loss now became zero since unless and until NIFTY gives weekly close below 5135.95, up trend of Indian market will remain intact. So if don't want to bear loss exit if nifty gives weekly close below 5135.95. Even if someone exits if nifty gives weekly close below 5135.95, he will exit with profit.
NOW IDEALLY WHAT SHOULD BE DONE NEXT ? ----
So because of above view if anybody bought stocks/ mutual funds on 30 Jan what r the returns right now and what r future possibilities.
For this first we will see returns of nifty, sensex and some mutual funds from 30 Jan to 4 Apr.
NIFTY --- 4.63 %
SENSEX --- 3.69 %
DSP BR EQUITY FUND --- 8.27 %
FRANKLIN INDIA BLUECHIP --- 5.86 %
ICICI PRUDENTIAL TOP 100 --- 5.65 %
TATA PURE EQUITY --- 7.01 %
HDFC TOP 200 --- 6.96 %
ICICI PRU DYNAMIC --- 7.07 %
ICICI PRUDENTIAL DISCOVERY --- 10.62 %
IDFC PREMIER EQUITY --- 8.40 %
RELIANCE EQUITY OPPORTUNITIES --- 10.48 %
HDFC EQUITY --- 8.31 %
FRANKLIN INDIA PRIMA PLUS --- 8.04 %
SBI MAGNUM CONTRA --- 7.81 %
RELIANCE GROWTH --- 7.74 %
Now last 2 weeks price action suggest that unless and until NIFTY gives weekly close below 5135, this ongoing up trend will remain intact. SO -----
(A) If someone has bought on 30 Jan for long term ( for at least 4-5 years) hold on this investments. Even though nifty goes below 5135, don't exit, and if possible add at level of 5000-5050. In worst case scenario even though nifty goes below 4500, don't panic, if u have invested for long term ( once again repeating at least for 4-5 years ).
(B) If someone has bought for short to medium term ( few weeks to 1-2 years ), then exit ur investment if nifty gives weekly close below 5135, and try to invest when next up trend starts according to technical analysis.
(C) For fresh investments, invest at current level with stop loss weekly close below 5135.
NOTE : -THIS LEVEL OF 5135 WILL CHANGE LATER ON ACCORDING TO FUTURE PRICE ACTION.
Now last 2 weeks price action suggest that unless and until NIFTY gives weekly close below 5135, this ongoing up trend will remain intact. SO -----
(A) If someone has bought on 30 Jan for long term ( for at least 4-5 years) hold on this investments. Even though nifty goes below 5135, don't exit, and if possible add at level of 5000-5050. In worst case scenario even though nifty goes below 4500, don't panic, if u have invested for long term ( once again repeating at least for 4-5 years ).
(B) If someone has bought for short to medium term ( few weeks to 1-2 years ), then exit ur investment if nifty gives weekly close below 5135, and try to invest when next up trend starts according to technical analysis.
(C) For fresh investments, invest at current level with stop loss weekly close below 5135.
NOTE : -THIS LEVEL OF 5135 WILL CHANGE LATER ON ACCORDING TO FUTURE PRICE ACTION.
DISCLAIMER: This
Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be
taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own
research or consult your advisers for safe trading.
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
FOLLOW UP
Yesterday at 7:52 am in this post (http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/03/follow-up-5-will-it-repeat-show-once.html ) the short term possibility is predicted ------ "SHORT TERM VIEW -- Now if yesterdays low (5327.55) is not broken then NIFTY will target 5500 in this week" AND today in opening move only it made high of 5499.40 means short term target ALMOST achieved.
So according to technical analysis who bought NIFTY at yesterday's open price 5391.1 must have rewarded with profit of 108.3 points.
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
FOLLOW UP 5 - WILL IT REPEAT THE SHOW ONCE AGAIN ?
On 5'th march in this link http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/03/follow-up-nifty-in-triangle.html it has been mentioned that- "So now it looks like that, it will target 5100, at least 5200 this week." and once again as per expectation last week it made low of 5171.45.
As we are mentioning repeatedly on this blog Indian market is entering new bull market. We first posted regarding this possibility on 24 Jan 2012 ( see link - http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/01/drama-will-it-repeat-show-once-again.html ). Now one by one it is giving new clues and confirming that it is bull market.
According to technical analysis BULLS ( UPTREND) lives above 200 SMA ( or 200 EMA) and BEARS (DOWNTREND) lives below 200 SMA ( or 200 EMA). Now last week even though short term trend is down after correction NIFTY taken support around 200 SMA and EMA ( see chart)
On 24 Feb we mentioned regarding possibility of GOLDEN CROSS in this post ( link - http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/02/follow-up-4-will-it-repeat-show-once.html ) which has been all ready happened.
In technical analysis some traders/ investors look for exponential moving averages (E.M.A.), while some look for simple moving averages (S.M.A.)
Now see the chart below and what happened yesterday -----
You can see that 50 SMA crossed above 200 SMA yesterday that means one more GOLDEN CROSS happened yesterday. Thus one more clue got confirmed that we are in BULL MARKET.
SHORT TERM VIEW -- Now if yesterdays low (5327.55) is not broken then NIFTY will target 5500 in this week ( on 14'th march inflation data will be out, on 15'th R.B.I. policy and on 16'th UNION BUDGET will be there so possibility of lot of volatility during this week so short term traders should follow there stop losses strictly).
LONG TERM VIEW --- As we have mentioned on 24'th Jan (http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/01/drama-will-it-repeat-show-once-again.html ) our market has entered new bull market and even though state election results not boosted market sentiments hold your investments, and if your risk profile and capital allows buy on every dips ( corrections) and hold on till long term trend is up.
Eventually looks like NIFTY will target 5500, 5700, 6000 and may even make new life time high till MARCH 2013.
DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.
As we are mentioning repeatedly on this blog Indian market is entering new bull market. We first posted regarding this possibility on 24 Jan 2012 ( see link - http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/01/drama-will-it-repeat-show-once-again.html ). Now one by one it is giving new clues and confirming that it is bull market.
According to technical analysis BULLS ( UPTREND) lives above 200 SMA ( or 200 EMA) and BEARS (DOWNTREND) lives below 200 SMA ( or 200 EMA). Now last week even though short term trend is down after correction NIFTY taken support around 200 SMA and EMA ( see chart)
On 24 Feb we mentioned regarding possibility of GOLDEN CROSS in this post ( link - http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/02/follow-up-4-will-it-repeat-show-once.html ) which has been all ready happened.
In technical analysis some traders/ investors look for exponential moving averages (E.M.A.), while some look for simple moving averages (S.M.A.)
Now see the chart below and what happened yesterday -----
You can see that 50 SMA crossed above 200 SMA yesterday that means one more GOLDEN CROSS happened yesterday. Thus one more clue got confirmed that we are in BULL MARKET.
SHORT TERM VIEW -- Now if yesterdays low (5327.55) is not broken then NIFTY will target 5500 in this week ( on 14'th march inflation data will be out, on 15'th R.B.I. policy and on 16'th UNION BUDGET will be there so possibility of lot of volatility during this week so short term traders should follow there stop losses strictly).
LONG TERM VIEW --- As we have mentioned on 24'th Jan (http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/01/drama-will-it-repeat-show-once-again.html ) our market has entered new bull market and even though state election results not boosted market sentiments hold your investments, and if your risk profile and capital allows buy on every dips ( corrections) and hold on till long term trend is up.
Eventually looks like NIFTY will target 5500, 5700, 6000 and may even make new life time high till MARCH 2013.
DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.
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