BREAKOUT FROM FLAG PATTERN ON HOURLY CHAT

NIFTY HOURLY

As shown in the above chart NIFTY today gave breakout from consolidation/ flag pattern ( RANGE 5850-5900 ). So now looks like it will target 6000-6025 in coming 3-4 trading sessions. As usual for any trade, the stop loss for this trade is hourly close below 5854.7.

TARGET --- BREAKOUT LEVEL (5900) + HEIGHT OF FLAG POLE ( 100-125 ) = 6000-6025.

 HERE ARE THE LINKS FOR THOSE WHO ARE INTERESTED FOR READING MORE ABOUT FLAG PATTERN ----
http://www.trending123.com/patterns/bull_flag.html

http://www.investopedia.com/university/charts/charts6.asp#axzz2E9Pjkc3u

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

SHORT TERM VIEW --- FOLLOW THE CHARTS NEWS WILL FOLLOW

On 7'th Sept in this post FOLLOW UP SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM VIEW under short term view we mentioned that --- " Now the short term trend also turned up, so short term trader can buy any dips ". As per our analysis NIFTY continued it's upward journey and today opened up almost by 2% due to global cues from American markets. So it has proved once again that FOLLOW THE CHARTS AND NEWS WILL FOLLOW.

Since our post on 7'th Sept NIFTY is all ready up by 230 points ( i.e. approximately 4.3% up ) so short term traders can book profit here or wait for the next target. What is the next target ? To answer this question we have to analyze the charts.

NIFTY HOURLY CHART

 The above chart is showing ROUNDING BOTTOM or CUP N HANDLE PATTERN on hourly time frame. Today NIFTY gave breakout from this pattern. Target for this pattern will be height of pattern ( AB = which is roughly 225 points ). So target will be 5445 + 225 = 5670.
        So any pullbacks upto 5425 - 5450 range will be bought for above mentioned target with stop loss of hourly close below 5421.95.

At the same time long term charts ( daily n weekly ) are showing resistance in the range of 5600-5630, so be cautious and follow stop losses strictly.

FOLLOW UP SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM VIEW

SHORT TERM VIEW :-

Today at 10 am nifty closed at 5317.35 and since it taken out 5280 successfully,  the view mentioned in this post SHORT TERM VIEW got negated. Now the short term trend also turned up, so short term trader can buy any dips with recent low i.e. 5215.7 as stop loss. NIFTY may retrace i.e. fall back to test 5240-5280 range which if happens may be buying opportunity.

LONG TERM VIEW :-

On 3'rd Sept. in this post ??? OPPORTUNITY we have mentioned that " Right now NIFTY is trading near 5250. And there are high chances that it will take support in the region of 5175-5250 and bounce back. So long term investors can use current fall as opportunity to buy for handsome gain." Right now from short term chart it looks like short term bottom has been formed. But the points mentioned under short term view don't have any importance for long term investors. LONG TERM INVESTORS SHOULD KEEP EYE ON NIFTY LEVEL 5032.4. IF NIFTY DON'T GIVE WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 5032.4 HOLD ON YOUR LONG TERM INVESTMENT OR USE ANY FALL/ DIPS/ CORRECTIONS AS BUYING OPPORTUNITIES. 

As shown in the daily chart above NIFTY tested green trend line and bounced back NOW it may target the red trend lines or once again may fall to test the green trend line in the daily line chart of NIFTY which is not tested yet.  Daily line chart of nifty is shown below.

 

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

 

SHORT TERM VIEW

Right now NIFTY is trading near 5240. There is DESCENDING TRIANGLE breakdown on shorter time frame, so now if 5280 is not taken out it will target at least 5180.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

SHORT TERM VIEW

NIFTY 5 MIN

This is 5 min chart of nifty. Today at 9:40 am it gave opening range breakout. Opening range means range made in first 15 minutes. So now there is high probability that today it may target ---- Target 1) 5364-5365 and then may try to reach Target 2) 5379-80.  THE STOP LOSS FOR THIS TRADE IS 5 MIN CANDLE CLOSE BELOW TODAY'S LOW I.E. 5336.85


DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

FOLLOW UP --- SHORT TERM N LONG TERM VIEW

As posted on 8 Aug in this link SHORT TERM VIEW , NIFTY started correction and on Friday it took support almost near the breakout trend line.  Now if holds above this trend line and Fridays low, there are chances that once again it will try to resume its up trend. 

As posted on 8 Aug only in this link LONG TERM VIEW , it has been clearly mentioned that " As shown in the chart above there is one more resistance line on weekly chart, near which NIFTY is trading right now. So actually if NIFTY gives weekly close above this trend line, and also weekly close above previous swing pivot i.e. above 5350 ( to be precise above 5348.55), very much  strength will be added to this up move ".

But nifty failed to close above this long term weekly trend line, in fact it got resisted and formed bearish grave stone doji at this trend line and started correcting.

 So as of now long term trend is slightly bullish to sideways, so unless and until it gives weekly close above 5350, long term investors should not buy.

CAUTION:- The blog writers are also learners of technical analysis and the view mentioned here are on blog writers knowledge and inference of technical analysis, so readers are advised to take advice from expert financial advisers or do there own research before taking any decisions.

One more thing we like to mention:- in technical analysis you have to change your views according to future price action or pattern development and writers of this blog may or may not be able to update changed views.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

SHORT TERM VIEW

BEARISH GRAVESTONE DOJI :-

NIFTY - DAILY

Today on daily chart NIFTY formed BEARISH GRAVESTONE DOJI CANDLESTICK PATTERN which suggest there may be end of this up move for a while. This candlestick pattern will need confirmation next day. Confirmation may be in the form of  tommorow's opening below today's close. The larger the gap the stronger the confirmation will be. A black candlestick with lower prices can also be another form of confirmation.
That means now there are chances that the price will test the upper border of triangle, which may or may not act as support.

Those who are interested for further information regarding  BEARISH GRAVESTONE DOJI, can visit this link http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs46.asp


DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

SHORT TERM VIEW

Today nifty opened gap up and gave breakout from INVERSE HEAD AND SHOULDER PATTERN, as shown in the hourly chart below.

NIFTY HOURLY

The rough target for this breakout will be 5425-5450. For this to achieve NIFTY should trade above the neck line. If NIFTY gives hourly close  below neckline then this trading pattern will get negated.

As of now the overall trend of market is sideways (range bound) trade cautiously and follow the stop losses with strict discipline.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

SHORT TERM TRADING STRATEGY

NIFTY DAILY

As shown in the daily chart nifty is forming RISING WEDGE. The rising wedge pattern is characterized by a chart pattern which forms when the market makes higher highs and higher lows with a contracting range. When this pattern is found in an uptrend, it is considered a reversal pattern, as the contraction of the range indicates that the uptrend is losing strength.

That means the ongoing uptrend is losing its strength and there is possibility of correction. Our trading strategy which is based on hourly chart also given indication to book profit on Friday.  But this pattern will indicate that there is possibility of correction but it is not sure. There will be more chances if it breaks previous 2 days low.At the same time if it gives hourly close above 5340-5350 it may go to 5430. So be cautious and trade with strict stop loss.

If there is correction the supports will be 50 EMA on daily chart i.e. 5125, 200 EMA on daily chart i.e. 5160, and the gap created on  29/6.

SO WHAT SHOULD BE TRADING STRATEGY NEXT WEEK ?

 A) if next week nifty first goes down and gives hourly close below 5300, then short (sell) nifty with strict stop loss of hourly close above 5335 for target of 5150-5180.
      Again buy near 5150-5180 with stop loss of 5120 for target of 5430

B) if next week nifty first  goes up to 5430 then sell with stop loss of hourly close above  5450 for target of 5180-5200.
       Again buy near 5150-5180 with stop loss of 5120 for target of 5430

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

FOLLOW UP SHORT TERM VIEW

According to this post SHORT TERM VIEW NIFTY gave hourly close above 5190-5200 on Friday. So now it may target 5320-5350, even 5400 may be possible.

Short term traders should keep stop loss of hourly closing below 5190.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

SHORT TERM VIEW

If nifty gives hourly close above 5190-5200 possibility of extending this up move to 5320-5350.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

ALERT !!! FOLLOW UP

Please see this post first - http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/04/alert.html

Now what next--- yesterdays rate cut by RBI improved sentiment and SHORT TERM  trend which was down, turned up yesterday.

INTERMEDIATE TREND is still down. But today on hourly chart it gave breakout above 5306.75, so now if it gives daily close above 5306.75, INTERMEDIATE TREND will also turn up.

LONG TERM TREND is at present sideways to mildly bullish ( up ). If NIFTY gives weekly close above 5378.75 it will be firm indication of up trend. CAUTION --- AT the same time keep eye on 5135.95. If it gives weekly close below 5135.95 possibility of further downside to 4800 / 4530 are more.

So in short as of now Indian market is BUY ON DEEPS   .

AS USUAL THIS IS OUR PERSONAL VIEW AND VISITORS SHOULD DO THERE OWN ANALYSIS BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISION. 

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

SHORT TERM VIEW

NIFTY HOURLY

This is hourly chart of NIFTY. Since last 7 trading sessions ( since 9/4/12 ) NIFTY is trading between 5200-5300 band. Yesterdays rate cut by RBI improved sentiment and today NIFTY broke above 5300 so now within 2-3 trading session it may target 5400. ( 5300-5200 = 100, and 5300 + 100 = 5400 )

Before reaching 5400 it may pull back to test 5300 level, which if happens will be best entry point.

AS USUAL THIS IS OUR PERSONAL VIEW AND VISITORS SHOULD DO THERE OWN ANALYSIS BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISION. 

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

SHORT TERM VIEW

Looks like NIFTY FIFTY will test 5200-5225 zone this week and then will start its upward journey once again.

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.

SHORT TERM VIEW

It has been mentioned in yesterdays post --- " So now further direction will depend on hourly close outside the range of 5230-5300. If it closes above 5300 possibility of 5370-5400 " And today at 1:00 pm it given hourly close above 5300 so now possibility of 5370-5400 are high.

 Stop loss for this trade will be hourly close below 5256.25.

 By giving hourly close above 5300, it may be giving early indication that the short term correction which started on 15 march may be over. For this now it should not break below 5233, otherwise this view will get negated.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.

NIFTY SHORT TERM VIEW

Since yesterday short term trend has been changed to down, one can sell NIFTY at C.M.P. (current market price ) - 5421 for target of 5300 and may be 5200 in coming 4-5 trading sessions. Stop loss for this trade hourly close above 5445.3

 CAUTION :- Intermediate and long term trend is up only, so stop loss should be followed strictly.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.

SHORT TERM VIEW --- NIFTY IN TRIANGLE

Right now NIFTY is trading in triangle (height of triangle approximately 230 points. So if it gives hourly close above 5380,  it will target 5580-5600. At the same time if it gives hourly close below 5310-20, it will target 5100. Lets see which way it breaks.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.

SHORT TERM VIEW

Today's price action suggest that the much awaited correction has been started. Now in coming days nifty is likely to  fall up to 5350-5400 ( which is the break out level ), or it may fall up to 5200. After testing one / both of these level it may regain it's upward journey for target of 5700-5800 and then 5900 -6000.

NOTE:- This view will get negated if nifty gives daily close above 5630.

Now a days we are not posting charts for short term views because it takes time, whenever time permits or major turnaround happens we will post charts also.

  DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.

SHORT TERM VIEW

if spot nifty takes out 5215-16 (5min candle on closing basis) it will fly to 5250-60

 AND if it gives hourly close above 5220 possibility of targeting 5350 in next 2-5 trading days.

 stop loss for this todays low 5159.20, to be safe 5155

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.