NIFTY AT CRUCIAL SUPPORT

NIFTY DAILY

The daily chart of NIFTY given above is self explanatory.

The current up move in NIFTY from june 12, taken support every time it closed below 50sma & 50 ema.

See it has taken support at the trend line shown in green colour thrice july, sept & nov 12. Now once again nifty is near this trend line, so it may take support in the region of 5875- 5950.

If it closes below this green trend line for 2-3 days  it may correct up to 5800-5825 which coincides with 100 sma and previous resistance shown in red colour.

So looks like this is buying opportunity. To be on the safer side buy when it gives close above 50 EMA which is right now 5960, with the low formed will be as stop loss.

NIFTY FIFTY --- LAST WEEK EVENT'S WILL THEY SPOIL THE PARTY OR GIVING OPPORTUNITY TO BUY FOR LONG TERM INVESTORS ?

After making low on 20/12/11 at approximate level of 4530 NIFTY started its uptrend. Last week there are lots of event like inflation data, RBI policy and union budget. Since there are no any positive surprises last week short term trend turned weak. So now the question is will this rally sustain?

As mentioned elsewhere on this blog Indian capital market is in uptrend as suggested by technicals.

NIFTY - DAILY CHART

As shown in the chart NIFTY after breaking trend line 1, taken support at 200 sma ( which is shown by brown line ) and after retesting the trend line 1 it started falling once again. 50 day sma ( green) is above 200 day sma (brown), so it is suggesting up trend, and current fall is correction in ongoing uptrend. If and only if NIFTY gives daily close below 5170, then and then only there is possibility of more down side.
Next week possibility of NIFTY taking support at one of following supports --
1) 34 day  ema approximate level 5300
2)  50 day sma approximate level 5230
3) 200 day sma approximate level 5165
4) trend line 2 approximate level 5275

there are other supports also, so in short there is cluster of multiple supports in the range 5100 to 5300, so its buy during dips.

NOTE: LONG TERM TREND OF INDIAN MARKET IS UP, UNLESS IT GIVES WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 4530. ( this level will change according to future price action) . SO AS OF NOW OUR MARKET IS BUY ON DIPS FOR LONG TERM INVESTORS.

OUR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT THE ONGOING SHORT TERM CORRECTION WILL END BY NEXT WEEK AND IT WILL RESUME IT'S UP TREND FROM 26 MARCH.

As of now data given on nse web site suggest that FII's are buying, while DII's are selling, but be careful if FII also start selling this whole party may get spoiled.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.

FOLLOW UP 5 - WILL IT REPEAT THE SHOW ONCE AGAIN ?

On 5'th march in this link http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/03/follow-up-nifty-in-triangle.html it has been mentioned that- "So now it looks like that, it will target 5100, at least 5200 this week." and once again as per expectation last week it made low of 5171.45.
          As we are mentioning repeatedly on this blog Indian market is entering new bull market. We first posted regarding this possibility on 24 Jan 2012 ( see link - http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/01/drama-will-it-repeat-show-once-again.html ). Now one by one it is giving new clues and confirming that it is  bull market.

According to technical analysis BULLS ( UPTREND) lives above 200 SMA ( or 200 EMA) and BEARS (DOWNTREND) lives below  200 SMA ( or 200 EMA). Now last week even though short term trend is down after correction NIFTY taken support around 200 SMA and EMA ( see chart)



         On 24 Feb we mentioned regarding possibility of GOLDEN CROSS  in this post ( link - http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/02/follow-up-4-will-it-repeat-show-once.html ) which has been all ready happened.

        In technical analysis some traders/ investors look for exponential moving averages (E.M.A.), while some look for simple moving averages (S.M.A.)
        Now see the chart below and what happened yesterday -----

 You can see that  50 SMA crossed above  200 SMA yesterday that means one more GOLDEN CROSS happened yesterday. Thus one more clue got confirmed that we are in BULL MARKET. 

SHORT TERM VIEW -- Now if yesterdays low (5327.55) is not broken  then NIFTY will target 5500 in this week ( on 14'th march inflation data will be out, on 15'th R.B.I. policy and on 16'th  UNION BUDGET will be there so possibility of lot of volatility during this week so short term traders should follow there stop losses strictly).

LONG TERM VIEW --- As we have mentioned on 24'th Jan (http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/01/drama-will-it-repeat-show-once-again.html )  our market has entered new bull market and even though state election results not boosted market sentiments hold your investments, and if your risk profile and capital allows buy on every dips ( corrections) and hold on till long term trend is up.
Eventually looks like NIFTY will target 5500, 5700, 6000 and may even make new life time high till MARCH 2013.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.

WILL IT BOUNCE BACK FROM HERE

On 11 Nov. in this post http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.com/2011/11/will-it-hold-5170-80-today.html we have mentioned that " As shown in hourly chart 2, nifty is range bound whithin 5215- 5315 since 1/11/11,  so now if hourly close is below 52125 it may target 5215-100 =5115 . Also in hourly chart there is descending triangle formation which gives target of 5065.
Also if u observe chart 1 50SMA ( shown in pink colour) is at 5050 on daily chart

AND Conclusion : short term - downtrend target 5115, 5050-65. " THUS BOTH THESE TARGETS HAVE BEEN ACHIEVED WITHIN TWO TRADING SESSIONS. 

DAILY 50 SMA

 Now as shown in the above chart yesterday it closed at 50 SMA on daily chart so if yesterday's low which is 5052.85 so approximate 5050 is held ( ON CLOSING BASIS NOT INTRADAY ) , there is possibility of bounce back ( i.e. up move ) . AND THE RESISTANCES ( I.E. TARGETS ) FOR THIS UP MOVE WILL BE 5120, 5170/80 , 5200.


NOTE : short term trend is down


              intermediate term trend is up


              long term trend is down.


DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.