HAPPY DEEPAVALI

WISHING U AND UR FAMILY HAPPY DEEPAVALI  AND HEALTHY N WEALTHY NEW YEAR

TECHNICAL SETUP AND RBI CREDIT POLICY

Today at around 12noon, rbi credit policy will b out , most of analyst are expecting 25 basis point hike, but we think yesterdays buying is in anticipation that there will not b rate hike, or 25 basis point increase is all ready factored in by market participant, if that is the case then nifty will breakout above down trending resistance line today itself or at the most till this weekend, we will keep our fingers crossed.                                                                                                                                If that don't happen then till some more downside is left.

PROBABLE REASON FOR LOSS IN FIRST RADE

RECEIVED FOLLOWING EMAIL FROM FRIEND YESTERDAY

On 26th April 2011 there was a managed transaction in Nifty futures @ 5393, which is 400 points below MiniNifty low @ 5793. From that day onwards Nifty was closing in red for the last 9 days and now Nifty is approaching "that freak figure". Open Interest of Puts at strike price 5400 is the highest (5,401,300)today. Both these facts indicate that there was a big attempt to take down the Nifty to the desired levels of some of the BIG operators, which is against the interest of common people and small traders. For the safety of the interests of retail investor SEBI MUST investigate the said issue points and take appropriate remedial measures.
************ So Pl Send EMAIL TO SEBI in thismatter *********.

1)How above mentioned transaction took place when there was lakhs of entries?
2)Whether there is any inbuilt in mechanism to prevent such erroneous transactions?
3)Who are the parties to that transaction ? Who(buyer or seller) entered that figure and who benefited. Volume of that transaction? Any action taken by NSE/SEBI.
4)What are the checks to be incorporated in trading software to prevent such transactions in future.

NOTE:- DON'T KNOW IS THIS REALLY HAPPENED SINCE WE ARE USING ICHARTS FOR OUR CHART ANALYSIS AND THESE CHART ARE SHOWING 5793 AS LOW ON 26 APRIL FOR NIFTY FUTURE . MAY BE BECAUSE OF THIS MANIPULATION THERE IS DEEP LOSS IN OUR FIRST TRADE BUT THIS HELPED US TO ANALYZE OUR SYSTEM ONCE AGAIN AND WE FOUND SOLUTION TO AVOID SUCH LOSSES WHICH IS POSITIVE THING FOR US, AND WHICH WILL HELP US IN FUTURE IN OUR TRADES.

WE CHECKED NSE  SITE WHICH SHOWED FOLLOWING DETAILS --
see the link for nifty future on 26-4-2011 http://www.nseindia.com/content/fo/contractvol/datafiles/FUTIDX_NIFTY_26-04-2011_TO_26-04-2011.csv
 after checking nse site we realised that information provided in above mail is correct.

SO THIS MAY BE REASON WHY OUR SYSTEM FAILED TO RECOGNISE TREND CHANGE EARLY BCAUSE IN CHARTS WHICH WE ARE USING SHOWING LOW OF 5973, IF THE LOW HAD BEEN 5393,  INFERENCE HAD BEEN DIFFERENT. BUT SINCE WE ANALYZED AND BACK TESTED OUR SYSTEM ONCE AGAIN AND FOUND THAT WE CAN MINIMIZE SUCH LOSING TRADE IF WE USE ADDITIONAL INDICATORS FOR FILTERING, THIS IS POSITIVE OUTCOME FOR US. SO IF WE HAVE USED THIS FILTERS WE HAD EXITED OUR FIRST TRADE AT 5833.90 ( LOSS OF   22.9 POINTS ONLY) AND WOULD HAVE INITIATED SECOND TRADE AT 5833.9 WHICH SHOULD HAVE GIVEN US PROFIT OF 312.4 POINTS. WE ARE NOT GIVING EXCUSES FOR OUR LOSS BUT TRYING TO SHOW HOW WE CAN IMPROVE IF WE WORK HARD AND TRY TO LEARN.
 In performance sheet there will not be  any changes made, we will keep loss as it is , and see how is the performance including this loss after certain time period only. 

SOMETIMES THERE ARE MANIPULATIONS IN MARKET, WHICH ARE NOT EASY TO DO ALWAYS FOR PEOPLE'S WHO ARE DOING SUCH THINGS, THERE IS NO NEED TO STAY AWAY FROM MARKET BECAUSE OF POSSIBILITY OF MANIPULATIONS, BUT IF U CAN TRY HARD U CAN LEARN HOW TO HANDLE SUCH SITUATIONS.

INFORMATIVE POSTS

From today onwards whenever possible and time permits will try to post informative post related to capital (stock) market, financial planning, asset allocation, insurance, mutual funds, fundamental/ technical analysis. So requesting u to let us know ur interest of topic, queries at our email kolhapuritrader@yahoo.in

HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR! GET RICH SLOWLY!!!

Hi! this is my first post, on the occasion of gudi padwa decided to start new blog regarding financial planning, investing, trading. The main idea is to share ideas with each other, give answers to queries related to above topics, so any queries will be welcome.

 In future may start recommodation for trading, at present i will post performance of nifty trading for this financial year starting 1-4-2011. But dont trade right now using these recommodationns because they may not be realtime, may be posted with delay.

ONCE AGAIN QUERIES WILL BE WELCOME