STOCK MARKET ---- NEEDS CAUTION

On charts there are indications that stock market may be entering down trend. So as of now caution is needed. Whenever it gets confirmed we may post here so please keep visiting.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

JAN EFFECT

Today while discussing about stock market with one of my friend, he mentioned that it has been observed that during JAN market makes top and start falling / correcting. Is it so or is it a myth ? I just checked our beloved NIFTY chart since 1995.

What is the answer ? If u observe the above chart it can easily noted that out of 18 jan months during 11 jan actually market has gone up from jan level while 7 times it fallen from jan level. So we can't conclude anything or cant say surely that most of the time market makes top during jan and start falling/ correcting.

If we take example of Jan 12 NIFTY on 2 Jan closed at 4636.75 and on 21 Feb it closed at 5607.15 that is it rallied almost 21%, after that it corrected 14%, made a bottom on 23 May 12 and once again  started its upward journey and up till now it gained 22% from closing price on 23 may 12 with intermittent corrections.

If someone  had invested according to the advice given on this blog without seeing short term fluctuations and trying to time the market his  investment have been grown by 25-30 % from 2 Jan till today.

So conclusion is ---- the market may or may not top in jan 2013. If it is going to top /  fall this we will come to know from short term technical analysis. So short term trader will  keep eye on intraday and daily chart and  take decisions according to price behavior , which we may or may not be able to update. LONG TERM INVESTOR SHOULD NOT WORRY SINCE AS OF NOW SHORT, MEDIUM AND LONG TERM TREND IS UP. AS OF NOW LONG TERM  TREND WILL TURN DOWN ONLY IF NIFTY GIVES WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 5548.35

THE LESSON WE LEARNT  ONCE AGAIN --- " REGARDING STOCK MARKET DON'T RELY ON HEARD THINGS / RUMORS . TRY TO STUDY AND ANALISE MARKET SECRETS"


 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

BREAKOUT FROM FLAG PATTERN ON HOURLY CHAT

NIFTY HOURLY

As shown in the above chart NIFTY today gave breakout from consolidation/ flag pattern ( RANGE 5850-5900 ). So now looks like it will target 6000-6025 in coming 3-4 trading sessions. As usual for any trade, the stop loss for this trade is hourly close below 5854.7.

TARGET --- BREAKOUT LEVEL (5900) + HEIGHT OF FLAG POLE ( 100-125 ) = 6000-6025.

 HERE ARE THE LINKS FOR THOSE WHO ARE INTERESTED FOR READING MORE ABOUT FLAG PATTERN ----
http://www.trending123.com/patterns/bull_flag.html

http://www.investopedia.com/university/charts/charts6.asp#axzz2E9Pjkc3u

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

HOLD ON

It is almost one month since our last post, but there are not much changes technically. As mentioned previously medium and long term trend is up. While short term trend is down / correcting. This may be one more additional opportunity to add for long term investors. In this down trend NIFTY may correct up to 5450-5550, which if comes will be good level for new investment / addition for existing investors.

If nifty starts trading below 5450, then it will be early sign for possibility of down trend and we should be cautious.

As of now stop loss for long term investor is 5215.7 on weekly closing basis.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

SHORT TERM VIEW --- FOLLOW THE CHARTS NEWS WILL FOLLOW

On 7'th Sept in this post FOLLOW UP SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM VIEW under short term view we mentioned that --- " Now the short term trend also turned up, so short term trader can buy any dips ". As per our analysis NIFTY continued it's upward journey and today opened up almost by 2% due to global cues from American markets. So it has proved once again that FOLLOW THE CHARTS AND NEWS WILL FOLLOW.

Since our post on 7'th Sept NIFTY is all ready up by 230 points ( i.e. approximately 4.3% up ) so short term traders can book profit here or wait for the next target. What is the next target ? To answer this question we have to analyze the charts.

NIFTY HOURLY CHART

 The above chart is showing ROUNDING BOTTOM or CUP N HANDLE PATTERN on hourly time frame. Today NIFTY gave breakout from this pattern. Target for this pattern will be height of pattern ( AB = which is roughly 225 points ). So target will be 5445 + 225 = 5670.
        So any pullbacks upto 5425 - 5450 range will be bought for above mentioned target with stop loss of hourly close below 5421.95.

At the same time long term charts ( daily n weekly ) are showing resistance in the range of 5600-5630, so be cautious and follow stop losses strictly.

FOLLOW UP SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM VIEW

SHORT TERM VIEW :-

Today at 10 am nifty closed at 5317.35 and since it taken out 5280 successfully,  the view mentioned in this post SHORT TERM VIEW got negated. Now the short term trend also turned up, so short term trader can buy any dips with recent low i.e. 5215.7 as stop loss. NIFTY may retrace i.e. fall back to test 5240-5280 range which if happens may be buying opportunity.

LONG TERM VIEW :-

On 3'rd Sept. in this post ??? OPPORTUNITY we have mentioned that " Right now NIFTY is trading near 5250. And there are high chances that it will take support in the region of 5175-5250 and bounce back. So long term investors can use current fall as opportunity to buy for handsome gain." Right now from short term chart it looks like short term bottom has been formed. But the points mentioned under short term view don't have any importance for long term investors. LONG TERM INVESTORS SHOULD KEEP EYE ON NIFTY LEVEL 5032.4. IF NIFTY DON'T GIVE WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 5032.4 HOLD ON YOUR LONG TERM INVESTMENT OR USE ANY FALL/ DIPS/ CORRECTIONS AS BUYING OPPORTUNITIES. 

As shown in the daily chart above NIFTY tested green trend line and bounced back NOW it may target the red trend lines or once again may fall to test the green trend line in the daily line chart of NIFTY which is not tested yet.  Daily line chart of nifty is shown below.

 

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

 

SHORT TERM VIEW

Right now NIFTY is trading near 5240. There is DESCENDING TRIANGLE breakdown on shorter time frame, so now if 5280 is not taken out it will target at least 5180.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

??? OPPORTUNITY

NIFTY WEEKLY

As shown in above chart NIFTY came out of bearish ( downtrend ) channel -- shown with 2 red lines and gave bullish ( up trend ) on weekly closing basis on 3/2/12. After that may and June 12 it tested breakout line ( i.e. upper red  line )  and started its up ward journey once again.

After break out right now it is trading  within bullish ( up trending ) chaneel --- which is shown with 2 green lines.

Now it is facing resistance at one more trend line which is shown in blue colour. Now if it gives weekly close above blue trend line long term investors ( for minimum period of 3-4 years ) can buy quality stocks or mutual funds. There is very high chances of doubling capital within next 3-5 years.

CAUTION :-: YOU HAVE TO WAIT FOR CLEAR CUT BREAK OUT ( WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE BLUE TREND LINE ), BUY ONLY IF THERE IS WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE BLUE TREND LINE.

The first target for this target will be upper green line i.e. 5900- 6000

STOP LOSS FOR THIS WILL BE WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 5032.4

CONTRA POSSIBILITY --- right now fundamentals are not supporting this up move. As per saying - " technicals improve first and later on fundamentals follow ", BUT you never know so you should be prepared for contra possibility. SO if it gives weekly close below lower green trend line NIFTY may go to 4000-4100 level.

SO IN SHORT ONE SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS AND IF BUY AFTER WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE BLUE TREND LINE ONE SHOULD SELL ALL HIS STOCKS / MUTUAL FUNDS IF NIFTY GIVES WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 5032.4 AND WAIT PATIENTLY FOR NEXT OPPORTUNITY.
DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

NIFTY NEAR SUPPORT

NIFTY : WEEKLY CHART

As shown in the chart nifty is near it's support, which given support many times in past so there is possibility of bounce back. But if 4700 is taken out then next support comes from lower trend line of down trending channel which is approximately at 4450- 4500 level. So if 4700 is taken out it may target 4450-4500. And if it breaks lower trend line then it may feel ELECTION GAP created on 18 may 2009.

Also note that if 4700 is taken out as shown in below chart the long term trend line around 4650 may also try to give support.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.