NOTHING NEW --- RANGE BOUND

As shown in above chart NIFTY is trading within the FALLING WEDGE since 22 Feb and unless and untill there is clear cut break out from this wedge there will not be any significant move.

   On 19 Apr there is breakout on daily chart which turned out to be falls breakout since from 23 Apr once again NIFTY is trading within falling wedge.  So unless there is weekly close outside this wedge there will not be any significant move.

   Keep watch on following levels ---
(A) FOR UP SIDE BREAK OUT
      Daily close above 5342.45 will be first indication that there is possibility of upside.
      Weekly close above 5378.75 will be more confirmatory sign for upside.

(B) FOR DOWN SIDE BREAK OUT
      Daily close below 5183.5 will be first indication that there is possibility of down side.
      Weekly close below 5135.95 will be more confirmatory sign for downside.

NOTE :- FALLING WEDGE IS BULLISH PATTERN ( SUGGESTING POSSIBILITY OF UPSIDE). BUT YOU NEVER KNOW SO WAIT FOR CLEAR CUT WEEKLY CLOSING OUTSIDE THE WEDGE.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

STILL BULLISH

On 18 APR it has been mentioned that "  INTERMEDIATE TREND is still down. But today on hourly chart it gave breakout above 5306.75, so now if it gives daily close above 5306.75, INTERMEDIATE TREND will also turn up." WHAT HAPPENED - on 19 Apr it closed at 5332.4, Thus ON Thursday 19 Apr INTERMEDIATE TREND also turned up. SO NOW SHORT, INTERMEDIATE AND LONG ALL TIME FRAMES ARE SHOWING UP TREND.

On Friday 20 Apr. whatever may be the reason ( some say it is trading error ) NIFTY FUTURE intraday made low of 5000, because of which many traders/ investors became nervous.( if interested see link http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/stock-markets/article3336580.ece ). Reliance results which declared on Friday after market timing are not according to expectations, macro-economic fundamentals are yet not suggesting possibility of UP TREND. STILL WE ARE OF THE VIEW THAT THERE IS HIGH PROBABILITY OF UP MOVE AND IN NEXT 2-3 MONTHS NIFTY MAY SEE 5700 LEVEL  AND IF FUNDAMENTALS IMPROVE MAY SEE LEVEL OF 6000 OR NEW LIFE TIME HIGH IN NEXT 1 YEAR OR SO. This view is because  we always follow SCREEN/ CHART/ PRICE ACTION, and as of now it is showing possibility of up up move.

we will not discuss detail technical analysis- why we are bullish, since it may look boring to some of readers. Just giving two technical reasons for bullish view.

1)

PIN BAR

 As shown in above chart NIFTY had made pin bar candlestick pattern on weekly chart ( week ending 30/3/12. And this PIN BAR has formed at very significant pivot point ( YEARLY PIVOT POINT OF NIFTY 5112.)
If anyone interested in reading about PIN BAR CANDLESTICK REVERSAL PATTERN VISIT THIS LINK http://www.forextofreedom.com/pin-bar-candlestick-reversal-pattern  

2)

BULLISH ENGULFING

As shown in above chart this week NIFTY had formed BULLISH ENGULFING PATTERN on weekly chart which again suggest possibility of up move.

If anyone interested in reading about BULLISH ENGULFING PATTERN visit this link http://www.candlestickforum.com/PPF/Parameters/16_441_/candlestick.asp

CAUTION : - AS USUAL U NEVER KNOW WHEN MARKET WILL REVERSE ITS DIRECTION, SO KEEP EYE ON 5135 LEVEL, IF NIFTY GIVES WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 5135 THIS WHOLE VIEW OF LONG TERM UP TREND WILL GET NEGATED AND THERE WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF DOWN SIDE.

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

LAGATA HAI PICTURE ABHI BAKI HAI !!!

Check following 4 posts ---
1) http://www.kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/04/falling-wedge.html
2) http://www.kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/04/alert.html
3) http://www.kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/04/short-term-view_18.html
4) http://www.kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/04/alert-follow-up.html

So what happened today--- today there was gap up opening above upper trend line of falling wedge, but later on NIFTY got sold of and given daily close exactly at 5300.

NIFTY DAILY

We all ready mentioned that if it gives daily close above 5306.75, INTERMEDIATE TREND will also turn up.That means as of now INTERMEDIATE TREND is still down.

 
At the same time SHORT TERM TREND is up, while LONG TERM TREND is sideways to up.

THAT MEANS EVEN THOUGH NIFTY BROKE OUT ABOVE THE UPPER TREND LINE OF FALLING WEDGE THERE IS STILL CONFUSION REGARDING DIRECTION OF MARKET.

AT THE SAME TIME NOTE THAT CHAIKIN MONEY  FLOW AND MONEY FLOW INDEX HAVE GIVEN BREAK OUT ABOVE 0 AND 40 RESPECTIVELY SO THE FUTURE DIRECTION IS MORE LIKELY IN THE UP WARD DIRECTION. BUT YOU NEVER KNOW SO WAIT FOR CLEAR CUT INDICATION.

IN SHORT NIFTY IS IN CONSOLIDATION PHASE SINCE 22 FEB, AND AS OF NOW LOOKS LIKE PICTURE ABHI BAKI HAI, i.e. it will consolidate for few more days, MOST PROBABLY IT WILL GIVE CLEAR INDICATION ON COMING FRIDAY  OR  DURING NEXT WEEK.

These are tough times for traders, lot of traders loose significant amount of money during periods like these and even quite few of them are thrown out of the market. Such periods are so painful that some of the traders never return to market in there life time.

DURING SUCH PERIODS LOT OF PATIENCE, DISCIPLINE IS REQUIRED. DURING SUCH PERIODS IT IS BETTER TO REMAIN OUT SIDE THE MARKET UN TILL THERE IS CLEAR CUT BREAKOUT, AND YOU ARE  SURE REGARDING FURTHER DIRECTION.

 AS USUAL THIS IS OUR PERSONAL VIEW AND VISITORS SHOULD DO THERE OWN ANALYSIS BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISION. 

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

ALERT !!! FOLLOW UP

Please see this post first - http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/04/alert.html

Now what next--- yesterdays rate cut by RBI improved sentiment and SHORT TERM  trend which was down, turned up yesterday.

INTERMEDIATE TREND is still down. But today on hourly chart it gave breakout above 5306.75, so now if it gives daily close above 5306.75, INTERMEDIATE TREND will also turn up.

LONG TERM TREND is at present sideways to mildly bullish ( up ). If NIFTY gives weekly close above 5378.75 it will be firm indication of up trend. CAUTION --- AT the same time keep eye on 5135.95. If it gives weekly close below 5135.95 possibility of further downside to 4800 / 4530 are more.

So in short as of now Indian market is BUY ON DEEPS   .

AS USUAL THIS IS OUR PERSONAL VIEW AND VISITORS SHOULD DO THERE OWN ANALYSIS BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISION. 

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

SHORT TERM VIEW

NIFTY HOURLY

This is hourly chart of NIFTY. Since last 7 trading sessions ( since 9/4/12 ) NIFTY is trading between 5200-5300 band. Yesterdays rate cut by RBI improved sentiment and today NIFTY broke above 5300 so now within 2-3 trading session it may target 5400. ( 5300-5200 = 100, and 5300 + 100 = 5400 )

Before reaching 5400 it may pull back to test 5300 level, which if happens will be best entry point.

AS USUAL THIS IS OUR PERSONAL VIEW AND VISITORS SHOULD DO THERE OWN ANALYSIS BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISION. 

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

ALERT !!!

Since Dec-Jan we  had bullish bias for Indian markets, but this week's closing price is giving us warning. Now we will say that the TREND is sideways from long term perspective.UNLESS NIFTY GIVES WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE 5380-5400 THE POSSIBILITY OF RESUMING UP TREND IS LOW.

AT THE SAME TIME IF IT GIVES WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 5135 POSSIBILITY OF FURTHER DOWNSIDE ARE HIGH.

If it gives weekly close below 5135 what are the possibilities -----
(1) It will go below 5135, weak hands will be thrown out of the market, and then it will resume it's up trend.
(2) It may make base formation around one of these levels 5000-5050 or 4800 or even test Dec 2011 level of 4530, and then once again start moving up.
(3) In worst case scenario it may go below 4530, will fill the ELECTION GAP created in MAY 2009 ( i.e. 3600-3900 ) level.
(4)will  remain sideways between 5000 and 5400 for few more months, and will resume up trend.
(5) will trade between 4500- 5600 for 2-3 years, and then resume up trend. THIS WILL BE MOST REWARDING SITUATION FOR LONG TERM OR S.I.P. INVESTORS.


SO WHAT SHOULD BE DONE ?
PLAN OF ACTION -------
( A ) If u are trader --- follow your system, be disciplined and follow stop losses strictly.
( B ) If u are short term investor ( for few months to 1-2 year ), exit equity if NIFTY gives weekly close below 5135, and invest when there is clear cut up trend according to technical analysis.
( C ) If you are long term investor ( more than 10 years ), then hold on your existing investment and continue / start investment via S.I.P. route in quality stocks or few good mutual funds.

NOTE --- WE ARE NOT GIVING DETAIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FOR THIS VIEW, TRYING TO EXPLAIN IT IN SIMPLE WORDS. WATCH THE LEVELS GIVEN ABOVE, AND SEE HOW NIFTY REACTS AROUND THESE LEVELS, IT WILL BE INTERESTING.

AS USUAL THIS IS OUR PERSONAL VIEW AND VISITORS SHOULD DO THERE OWN ANALYSIS BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISION. 

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

WHY WE DONT LIKE INDIVIDUAL STOCKS AND PREFER INVESTING IN MUTUAL FUNDS FOR LONG TERM ?

IGL E.O.D. CHART

Today gas related stocks lost significantly on concerns about transportation cost. IGL  ( indraprastha gas ltd.), lost almost 48% in a single day, after some recovery at end of day it closed 33.9 % below the yesterday's closing price.

NOTE :- THIS POST IS INCOMPLETE WILL UPDATE LATER ON.

FALLING WEDGE

NIFTY DAILY

The above chart is E.O.D. NIFTY chart, which shows falling wedge pattern is in making. Falling wedge is bullish pattern, i.e. suggests possibility of continuation of  long term up trend. This possibility will be confirmed once NIFTY gives daily close above trend line 1.

 NOTE : - At the same time if it gives daily close below trend line 2, this view will get negated. ( i.e. if it gives daily close below trend line 2, it will be pattern failure ).

 SO LONG TERM INVESTORS CAN BUY TILL NIFTY IS TRADING WITHIN THE FALLING WEDGE ( BETWEEN TWO TREND LINES ) WITH STOP LOSS CLOSE BELOW TREND LINE 2. 

ONCE NIFTY GIVES DAILY CLOSE ABOVE TREND LINE 1, TRAIL ( SHIFT THIS STOP LOSS TO DAILY CLOSE BELOW TREND LINE 1, SO THAT CHANCES OF LOSS WILL BECOME ZERO.

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

SHORT TERM VIEW

Looks like NIFTY FIFTY will test 5200-5225 zone this week and then will start its upward journey once again.

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.

GOOD NEWS --- LONG TERM VIEW FOLLOW UP

On 24 Jan in this post http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/01/drama-will-it-repeat-show-once-again.html , AND on 29 Jan in this post  http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/01/follow-up-will-it-repeat-show-once.html, we have mentioned the possibility of starting new Indian bull market ( up trend ). Now everybody may be agree that it has started. After that NIFTY made high of 5629.95  on 22 Feb, and started correcting and last week made low of   5135.95.

WHAT IS GOOD NEWS--- If someone bought according to above view on 30 Jan. chances of making loss now became zero since unless and until NIFTY gives weekly close below 5135.95, up trend of Indian market will remain intact. So if don't want to bear loss exit if nifty gives weekly close below 5135.95.  Even if someone exits if nifty gives weekly close below 5135.95,  he will exit with profit.

NOW IDEALLY WHAT SHOULD BE DONE  NEXT ? ----

So because of above view if anybody bought stocks/ mutual funds on 30 Jan what r the returns right now and what r future possibilities.

For this first we will see returns of nifty, sensex and some mutual funds from 30 Jan to 4 Apr.

NIFTY  --- 4.63 %
SENSEX --- 3.69 %
DSP BR EQUITY FUND --- 8.27 %
FRANKLIN INDIA BLUECHIP --- 5.86 %
ICICI PRUDENTIAL TOP 100 --- 5.65 %

TATA PURE EQUITY --- 7.01 %

HDFC TOP 200 --- 6.96 %

ICICI PRU DYNAMIC --- 7.07 %

ICICI PRUDENTIAL DISCOVERY --- 10.62 %

IDFC PREMIER EQUITY --- 8.40 %

RELIANCE EQUITY OPPORTUNITIES --- 10.48 %

HDFC EQUITY --- 8.31 %

FRANKLIN INDIA PRIMA PLUS --- 8.04 %

SBI MAGNUM CONTRA --- 7.81 %

RELIANCE GROWTH  --- 7.74 %

Now last 2 weeks price action suggest that unless and until NIFTY gives weekly close below 5135, this ongoing up trend will remain intact. SO -----
(A) If someone has bought on 30 Jan for  long term ( for at least 4-5 years) hold on this investments. Even though nifty goes below 5135, don't exit, and if possible add at level of 5000-5050. In worst case scenario even though nifty goes below 4500, don't panic, if u have invested for long term ( once again repeating at least for 4-5 years ).
(B) If someone has bought for short to medium term ( few weeks to 1-2 years ), then exit ur investment if nifty gives weekly close below 5135, and try to invest when next up trend starts according to technical analysis.
(C) For fresh investments, invest at current level with stop loss weekly close below 5135.

NOTE : -THIS LEVEL OF 5135 WILL CHANGE LATER ON ACCORDING TO FUTURE PRICE ACTION.

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.

MAGIC OF TRENDLINES

Identifying the technique how to draw trend lines, and channels and using them for entry and exits may be one of easy technique for trading purpose.

NIFTY DAILY

The above chart is daily chart of NIFTY.

(A) When it closed above trend line 1, u can buy with stop loss close below trend line 1, for target of trend line 2. See on 30/3/12 it closed above trend line 1, and yesterday it reached trend line 2 and got resisted there so profit should be booked at yesterdays close.

(B) Yesterday it touched trend line 2 and got resisted there so sell at yesterdays close with stop loss close above trend line 2. This position will be for targeting trend line 1 once again.

POSSIBLE FUTURE TRADES ---

(C) If closes above trend line 2, then buy with stop loss close below trend line 2. Target we may post later on if this happens.

(D) If takes support at trend line 1, buy with stop loss close below trend line 1 for target of trend line 2.


(E) If closes below trend line 3, sell with stop loss close above trend line 3 for target of trend line 4.

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.

HAPPY NEW FINANCIAL YEAR

Some of our friends given feedback that they don't understand technicals and will like to see some post related to basics in financial planning, stock market investing. So during new financial year if possible we will try to write the same along with technical analysis also.

        Once again we thank our blog reader's. This blog writing helped us lot to improve our knowledge regarding technical analysis.