JAN EFFECT

Today while discussing about stock market with one of my friend, he mentioned that it has been observed that during JAN market makes top and start falling / correcting. Is it so or is it a myth ? I just checked our beloved NIFTY chart since 1995.

What is the answer ? If u observe the above chart it can easily noted that out of 18 jan months during 11 jan actually market has gone up from jan level while 7 times it fallen from jan level. So we can't conclude anything or cant say surely that most of the time market makes top during jan and start falling/ correcting.

If we take example of Jan 12 NIFTY on 2 Jan closed at 4636.75 and on 21 Feb it closed at 5607.15 that is it rallied almost 21%, after that it corrected 14%, made a bottom on 23 May 12 and once again  started its upward journey and up till now it gained 22% from closing price on 23 may 12 with intermittent corrections.

If someone  had invested according to the advice given on this blog without seeing short term fluctuations and trying to time the market his  investment have been grown by 25-30 % from 2 Jan till today.

So conclusion is ---- the market may or may not top in jan 2013. If it is going to top /  fall this we will come to know from short term technical analysis. So short term trader will  keep eye on intraday and daily chart and  take decisions according to price behavior , which we may or may not be able to update. LONG TERM INVESTOR SHOULD NOT WORRY SINCE AS OF NOW SHORT, MEDIUM AND LONG TERM TREND IS UP. AS OF NOW LONG TERM  TREND WILL TURN DOWN ONLY IF NIFTY GIVES WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 5548.35

THE LESSON WE LEARNT  ONCE AGAIN --- " REGARDING STOCK MARKET DON'T RELY ON HEARD THINGS / RUMORS . TRY TO STUDY AND ANALISE MARKET SECRETS"


 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

BREAKOUT FROM FLAG PATTERN ON HOURLY CHAT

NIFTY HOURLY

As shown in the above chart NIFTY today gave breakout from consolidation/ flag pattern ( RANGE 5850-5900 ). So now looks like it will target 6000-6025 in coming 3-4 trading sessions. As usual for any trade, the stop loss for this trade is hourly close below 5854.7.

TARGET --- BREAKOUT LEVEL (5900) + HEIGHT OF FLAG POLE ( 100-125 ) = 6000-6025.

 HERE ARE THE LINKS FOR THOSE WHO ARE INTERESTED FOR READING MORE ABOUT FLAG PATTERN ----
http://www.trending123.com/patterns/bull_flag.html

http://www.investopedia.com/university/charts/charts6.asp#axzz2E9Pjkc3u

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

? MARCHING TOWARDS 5950, 6175,6300

NIFTY WEEKLY CHART

Last week NIFTY after consolidating in tight range of 5550-5800 almost for 8 weeks finally gave breakout from flag pattern as shown in the chart.

The target for this flag pattern break out comes to be approximately 6275-6300. Whether it will reach this target ? Frankly speaking we don't know. But we will follow charts, AND   as of now there is possibility of it may target 6275-6300 or eventually it may make new life time high. The hurdles for this are shown by 3 red lines in above chart which are at level of approximately 5950, 6175,6300. NIFTY may start correcting/ falling from these levels, but we will see for reversal signals on chart.

As of now long term investor can hold his equity portfolio with stop loss of weekly close below 5548.35

From Dec 2011 on this blog we are repeatedly advising long term investor to buy. In our last post on 21 Oct we have clearly mentioned that "  This may be one more additional opportunity to add for long term investors. In this down trend NIFTY may correct up to 5450-5550, which if comes will be good level for new investment / addition for existing investors. " ( see this link HOLD ON ). NIFTY taken U turn after making low at 5548.35.

Those who have missed the bus can enter now ? Tough question but the answer is if they are willing to take /  afford risk of  7-8 % capital erosion, then they can buy quality stocks/  good diversified equity mutual fund with strict stop loss of weekly close below 5548.35. In simple words if it gives weekly close below 5548.35 you should exit without second thought and wait for next opportunity.

For those who are interested in reading more about FLAG PATTERN here is the link FLAG PATTERN

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.