GOLD ---- NEXT TARGET

On 28 jun we have mentioned that if GOLD gives weekly close below 25000, then it will head towards 20000 or even sub 20000 levels. See this link http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2013/06/gold-20000-or-sub-20000-level-possible.html

NOW SEE THE BELOW CHART WHAT HAPPENED ACTUALLY ----

As shown in the above chart during week ending on 29/6/13 it breached 25000 level but closed at 25669. That means it taken support around 25000 level and rallied towards 28000 level once again.

Now as shown in the chart above last week it has been closed above the long term trend line ( shown in blue in above chart ). So now if it dont starts trading below last weeks low i.e. 27,552 then it will head towards 30,000 initially and may start moving much higher.


IN SHORT THIS IS HOW TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WORKS. YOU HAVE TO KEEP CHANGING YOUR VIEWS ACCORDING TO PRICE ACTION AND HAVE TO TRADE ACCORDINGLY.    


DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

 

 

GOLD --- 20000 OR SUB 20000 LEVEL POSSIBLE IN NEXT 6-12 MONTHS ?

On 5'th june we have mentioned that GOLD may head towards 28000-28200 range. See this post http://www.kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2013/06/gold-heading-towards-28000-28200.html

After reaching this level GOLD resumed it's downtrend. Now what will be next possibility ?

This is weekly chart of gold future. One can clearly see that now gold is near its important support level of 25000. So now if it gives weekly close below 24900-25000 range. It will head towards 20000 or sub 20000 level over a period of 6-12 months.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

GOLD ---- HEADING TOWARDS 28000 -28200

GOLD- 1M

This is the GOLD FUTURE chart, in which it can be clearly seen that since last 1 month or so it is getting sold off at resistance which is approximately at 27200-27250. Now if it able to break this resistance on daily closing basis it may head towards 28000-28200 range. In the process it will fill the gaps formed during april because of panic fall.

If it closes above resistance, gold will return to short term uptrend.

CAUTION :- LONG TERM TREND IS STILL DOWN.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

STOCK MARKET ---- NEEDS CAUTION

On charts there are indications that stock market may be entering down trend. So as of now caution is needed. Whenever it gets confirmed we may post here so please keep visiting.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

SHARP SELL OFF IN GOLD --- IS IT TIME TO BUY OR SELL N RUN AWAY ?

On Friday GOLD price fell by Rs. 1000/- and on Saturday it again fell by Rs. 250/- so within matter of 2 days GOLD declined by Rs. 1250/- so is it right time to buy gold ? Also this fall is predictable or  unpredictable ?

Whatever may be the reason technical charts are showing possibility of fall in gold prices from Jan  only.  See our post http://www.kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2013/01/gold-will-it-bounce-back-or-is-it.html which is posted on 27 Jan.

Now the down trend in gold has been confirmed.

CHART 1

In the above weekly chart you can clearly see that the support 1 approximately at 29100-29200 level got broken last week. so price may target 26000 in next 3-6 months. Even it may reach 20000 or lower than that in next couple of years. So the answer is simple this is not time to buy but is time to sell the gold. Unless and until there are signs of trend reversal henceforth gold is sell on rise. 

CHART 2

In the above daily chart, we can see that there is pin bar on Saturday, so there may be bounce back which will be confirmed by Monday price action. So in short term gold price may bounce back and may target / test support 1 shown in chart 1, where it will face resistance and start to fall once again to target support 2 shown in chart 1. So the future price action may be as shown in   chart 3 below.

CHART 3

For those who are interested to read more about pin bar here is link PIN BAR

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

NIFTY AT CRUCIAL SUPPORT

NIFTY DAILY

The daily chart of NIFTY given above is self explanatory.

The current up move in NIFTY from june 12, taken support every time it closed below 50sma & 50 ema.

See it has taken support at the trend line shown in green colour thrice july, sept & nov 12. Now once again nifty is near this trend line, so it may take support in the region of 5875- 5950.

If it closes below this green trend line for 2-3 days  it may correct up to 5800-5825 which coincides with 100 sma and previous resistance shown in red colour.

So looks like this is buying opportunity. To be on the safer side buy when it gives close above 50 EMA which is right now 5960, with the low formed will be as stop loss.

GOLD -- WILL IT BOUNCE BACK OR IS IT ENTERING DOWN TREND ?

This is weekly chart of GOLD-MX. It is trending in a channel and given breakout above the channel on week ending 6/8/11. But recently it entered the channel  once again.   It may be false breakdown but as of now until and unless it gives close above upper trend line gold is sell on every rise. And it may target lower trend line approximately 29000-29500

NEXT TARGET ? 6150-75

On 3'rd Dec in this post ? MARCHING TOWARDS 5950, 6175, 6300 we have mentioned that " The hurdles for this are shown by 3 red lines in above chart which are at level of approximately 5950, 6175,6300. NIFTY may start correcting/ falling from these levels, but we will see for reversal signals on chart. ". On 6,7,11 dec it made high near 5950 level and started correction. After that it consolidated in very small range of 5850- 5950 (roughly) almost for 18 trading sessions it finally gave break out above 5950 and closed at 5993.25. So now if it holds 5850-65 range on daily closing basis now it will target it next huedle around 6175 and from this level it may start correcting.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

JAN EFFECT

Today while discussing about stock market with one of my friend, he mentioned that it has been observed that during JAN market makes top and start falling / correcting. Is it so or is it a myth ? I just checked our beloved NIFTY chart since 1995.

What is the answer ? If u observe the above chart it can easily noted that out of 18 jan months during 11 jan actually market has gone up from jan level while 7 times it fallen from jan level. So we can't conclude anything or cant say surely that most of the time market makes top during jan and start falling/ correcting.

If we take example of Jan 12 NIFTY on 2 Jan closed at 4636.75 and on 21 Feb it closed at 5607.15 that is it rallied almost 21%, after that it corrected 14%, made a bottom on 23 May 12 and once again  started its upward journey and up till now it gained 22% from closing price on 23 may 12 with intermittent corrections.

If someone  had invested according to the advice given on this blog without seeing short term fluctuations and trying to time the market his  investment have been grown by 25-30 % from 2 Jan till today.

So conclusion is ---- the market may or may not top in jan 2013. If it is going to top /  fall this we will come to know from short term technical analysis. So short term trader will  keep eye on intraday and daily chart and  take decisions according to price behavior , which we may or may not be able to update. LONG TERM INVESTOR SHOULD NOT WORRY SINCE AS OF NOW SHORT, MEDIUM AND LONG TERM TREND IS UP. AS OF NOW LONG TERM  TREND WILL TURN DOWN ONLY IF NIFTY GIVES WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 5548.35

THE LESSON WE LEARNT  ONCE AGAIN --- " REGARDING STOCK MARKET DON'T RELY ON HEARD THINGS / RUMORS . TRY TO STUDY AND ANALISE MARKET SECRETS"


 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

BREAKOUT FROM FLAG PATTERN ON HOURLY CHAT

NIFTY HOURLY

As shown in the above chart NIFTY today gave breakout from consolidation/ flag pattern ( RANGE 5850-5900 ). So now looks like it will target 6000-6025 in coming 3-4 trading sessions. As usual for any trade, the stop loss for this trade is hourly close below 5854.7.

TARGET --- BREAKOUT LEVEL (5900) + HEIGHT OF FLAG POLE ( 100-125 ) = 6000-6025.

 HERE ARE THE LINKS FOR THOSE WHO ARE INTERESTED FOR READING MORE ABOUT FLAG PATTERN ----
http://www.trending123.com/patterns/bull_flag.html

http://www.investopedia.com/university/charts/charts6.asp#axzz2E9Pjkc3u

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

? MARCHING TOWARDS 5950, 6175,6300

NIFTY WEEKLY CHART

Last week NIFTY after consolidating in tight range of 5550-5800 almost for 8 weeks finally gave breakout from flag pattern as shown in the chart.

The target for this flag pattern break out comes to be approximately 6275-6300. Whether it will reach this target ? Frankly speaking we don't know. But we will follow charts, AND   as of now there is possibility of it may target 6275-6300 or eventually it may make new life time high. The hurdles for this are shown by 3 red lines in above chart which are at level of approximately 5950, 6175,6300. NIFTY may start correcting/ falling from these levels, but we will see for reversal signals on chart.

As of now long term investor can hold his equity portfolio with stop loss of weekly close below 5548.35

From Dec 2011 on this blog we are repeatedly advising long term investor to buy. In our last post on 21 Oct we have clearly mentioned that "  This may be one more additional opportunity to add for long term investors. In this down trend NIFTY may correct up to 5450-5550, which if comes will be good level for new investment / addition for existing investors. " ( see this link HOLD ON ). NIFTY taken U turn after making low at 5548.35.

Those who have missed the bus can enter now ? Tough question but the answer is if they are willing to take /  afford risk of  7-8 % capital erosion, then they can buy quality stocks/  good diversified equity mutual fund with strict stop loss of weekly close below 5548.35. In simple words if it gives weekly close below 5548.35 you should exit without second thought and wait for next opportunity.

For those who are interested in reading more about FLAG PATTERN here is the link FLAG PATTERN

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

HOLD ON

It is almost one month since our last post, but there are not much changes technically. As mentioned previously medium and long term trend is up. While short term trend is down / correcting. This may be one more additional opportunity to add for long term investors. In this down trend NIFTY may correct up to 5450-5550, which if comes will be good level for new investment / addition for existing investors.

If nifty starts trading below 5450, then it will be early sign for possibility of down trend and we should be cautious.

As of now stop loss for long term investor is 5215.7 on weekly closing basis.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

LONG TERM VIEW --- TECHNICALLY IT IS NEW BULL MARKET ( TEJI )

2 Days back our friend sent following message ----

SILSILA - NIFTY STYLE :

Main aur meri tanhai
Aksar yeh baatein karte hain---
Teji hoti to aisa hota
Teji hoti ti vaisa hota---
Hum yeh lete hum voh lete---
Hum iss scrip ki delivery lete
Hum uss scrip ka future lete---
Magar yeh ho na saka
aur ab yeh aalam hai---
Ki stock bhi nahin aur
margin bharne ke paise bhi nahin ---
Guzar rahi hai zindagi kuch is tarah ---
Jaise usse koi bullish signal ki umeed bhi nahin---
Mai aur meri tanhai
aksar yeh battein karte hain---

BUT FRIENDS TECHNICALLY INDIAN MARKET ALL READY ENTERED NEW BULL MARKET.

FROM DEC 2011 ON THIS BLOG WE ARE ADVISING LONG TERM INVESTORS SHOULD INVEST IN STOCK MARKET DURING CURRENT FALL. HERE ARE SOME LINKS TO OUR POSTS FROM DEC 2011.

1) IS IT RIGHT TIME TO INVEST IN STOCK MARKET FOR LONG TERM INVESTOR ?
2) DRAMA - WILL IT REPEAT THE SHOW ONCE AGAIN ?
3)FOLLOW UP WILL IT REPEAT THE SHOW ONCE AGAIN ?
4)BEGINNING OF NEW BULL MARKET ?  ( As mentioned in this post INDIAVIX given weekly close below support line on 30 march 2012 )
5) INDIA VIX IN BEAR MARKET ( As mentioned in this since last 2-3 weeks we r seeing beginning of positive news flow )
6) NIFTY LONG TERM VIEW UPDATE
7) http://www.kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/06/long-term-view.html
8) http://www.kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/06/follow-up-long-term-view.html
9) LONG TERM VIEW
10) ??? OPPORTUNITY


These are the various links where we repeatedly mentioned and advised regarding long term . Now those who have invested according to these views can hold there investments. As of now if NIFTY gives weekly close below 5215.7 then and then only there is possibility of down trend otherwise this up move will continue with intermittent corrections/ falls. This level will change according to future price action which we will mention on blog so keep following. Now even if NIFTY gives weekly close below 5215.7 those who have invested will exit cost to cost or with some profit.

NOTE:- For investors who have not invested yet --- 1) wait for 2-3% fall/ correction and then invest OR if u are ready to bear loss of 8-10 % for possibility of handsome gain can invest at current level. But word of caution key to success is selection of quality stocks or mutual funds.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

SHORT TERM VIEW --- FOLLOW THE CHARTS NEWS WILL FOLLOW

On 7'th Sept in this post FOLLOW UP SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM VIEW under short term view we mentioned that --- " Now the short term trend also turned up, so short term trader can buy any dips ". As per our analysis NIFTY continued it's upward journey and today opened up almost by 2% due to global cues from American markets. So it has proved once again that FOLLOW THE CHARTS AND NEWS WILL FOLLOW.

Since our post on 7'th Sept NIFTY is all ready up by 230 points ( i.e. approximately 4.3% up ) so short term traders can book profit here or wait for the next target. What is the next target ? To answer this question we have to analyze the charts.

NIFTY HOURLY CHART

 The above chart is showing ROUNDING BOTTOM or CUP N HANDLE PATTERN on hourly time frame. Today NIFTY gave breakout from this pattern. Target for this pattern will be height of pattern ( AB = which is roughly 225 points ). So target will be 5445 + 225 = 5670.
        So any pullbacks upto 5425 - 5450 range will be bought for above mentioned target with stop loss of hourly close below 5421.95.

At the same time long term charts ( daily n weekly ) are showing resistance in the range of 5600-5630, so be cautious and follow stop losses strictly.

FOLLOW UP SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM VIEW

SHORT TERM VIEW :-

Today at 10 am nifty closed at 5317.35 and since it taken out 5280 successfully,  the view mentioned in this post SHORT TERM VIEW got negated. Now the short term trend also turned up, so short term trader can buy any dips with recent low i.e. 5215.7 as stop loss. NIFTY may retrace i.e. fall back to test 5240-5280 range which if happens may be buying opportunity.

LONG TERM VIEW :-

On 3'rd Sept. in this post ??? OPPORTUNITY we have mentioned that " Right now NIFTY is trading near 5250. And there are high chances that it will take support in the region of 5175-5250 and bounce back. So long term investors can use current fall as opportunity to buy for handsome gain." Right now from short term chart it looks like short term bottom has been formed. But the points mentioned under short term view don't have any importance for long term investors. LONG TERM INVESTORS SHOULD KEEP EYE ON NIFTY LEVEL 5032.4. IF NIFTY DON'T GIVE WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 5032.4 HOLD ON YOUR LONG TERM INVESTMENT OR USE ANY FALL/ DIPS/ CORRECTIONS AS BUYING OPPORTUNITIES. 

As shown in the daily chart above NIFTY tested green trend line and bounced back NOW it may target the red trend lines or once again may fall to test the green trend line in the daily line chart of NIFTY which is not tested yet.  Daily line chart of nifty is shown below.

 

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

 

SHORT TERM VIEW

Right now NIFTY is trading near 5240. There is DESCENDING TRIANGLE breakdown on shorter time frame, so now if 5280 is not taken out it will target at least 5180.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

??? OPPORTUNITY

On 6'th Aug in this post SHORT TERM VIEW  we have mentioned that there is breakout from inverse head and  shoulder and NIFTY will target 5425-5450. On 23/8 it made high of 5248.45 and started correcting from that level.. This is how we can use technical analysis for short term trading.

This post is especially for people who are investing for long term and don't understand about fundamental or technical analysis. Right now NIFTY is trading near 5250. And there are high chances that it will take support in the region of 5175-5250 and bounce back. So long term investors can use current fall as opportunity to buy for handsome gain. The stop loss for this will be weekly close below 5030. So the risk reward ratio is very much favorable, if there is loss it will be only 3-5%.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

FOLLOW UP --- OPPORTUNITY

Today because of global cues it looks like market will open lower ( NIFTY around 5390 ), this will be opportunity to buy. Stop loss will be as mentioned in previous posts.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

FOLLOW UP OPPORTUNITY

On Friday 17 Aug, in this post --- ??? OPPORTUNITY   advised to buy if nifty gives weekly close above blue trend line ( SEE CHART  ). But nifty didn't gave clear cut break out above the blue trend line.

However it closed above the previous swing high on weekly chart. So this market is now BUY ON DEEPS from long term perspective. So any fall should be bought.

Right now the trend on hourly chart is down / sideways. While on daily and weekly chart it is in up trend. So any fall / correction is buying opportunity. The stop loss for short term investors ( few weeks to months ) will be daily close below 5294, while for long term investors ( for more than 2-3 years ) stop loss will be weekly close below 5032.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

??? OPPORTUNITY

NIFTY WEEKLY

As shown in above chart NIFTY came out of bearish ( downtrend ) channel -- shown with 2 red lines and gave bullish ( up trend ) on weekly closing basis on 3/2/12. After that may and June 12 it tested breakout line ( i.e. upper red  line )  and started its up ward journey once again.

After break out right now it is trading  within bullish ( up trending ) chaneel --- which is shown with 2 green lines.

Now it is facing resistance at one more trend line which is shown in blue colour. Now if it gives weekly close above blue trend line long term investors ( for minimum period of 3-4 years ) can buy quality stocks or mutual funds. There is very high chances of doubling capital within next 3-5 years.

CAUTION :-: YOU HAVE TO WAIT FOR CLEAR CUT BREAK OUT ( WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE BLUE TREND LINE ), BUY ONLY IF THERE IS WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE BLUE TREND LINE.

The first target for this target will be upper green line i.e. 5900- 6000

STOP LOSS FOR THIS WILL BE WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 5032.4

CONTRA POSSIBILITY --- right now fundamentals are not supporting this up move. As per saying - " technicals improve first and later on fundamentals follow ", BUT you never know so you should be prepared for contra possibility. SO if it gives weekly close below lower green trend line NIFTY may go to 4000-4100 level.

SO IN SHORT ONE SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS AND IF BUY AFTER WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE BLUE TREND LINE ONE SHOULD SELL ALL HIS STOCKS / MUTUAL FUNDS IF NIFTY GIVES WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 5032.4 AND WAIT PATIENTLY FOR NEXT OPPORTUNITY.
DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.