WHY WE DONT LIKE INDIVIDUAL STOCKS AND PREFER INVESTING IN MUTUAL FUNDS FOR LONG TERM ?

IGL E.O.D. CHART

Today gas related stocks lost significantly on concerns about transportation cost. IGL  ( indraprastha gas ltd.), lost almost 48% in a single day, after some recovery at end of day it closed 33.9 % below the yesterday's closing price.

NOTE :- THIS POST IS INCOMPLETE WILL UPDATE LATER ON.

FALLING WEDGE

NIFTY DAILY

The above chart is E.O.D. NIFTY chart, which shows falling wedge pattern is in making. Falling wedge is bullish pattern, i.e. suggests possibility of continuation of  long term up trend. This possibility will be confirmed once NIFTY gives daily close above trend line 1.

 NOTE : - At the same time if it gives daily close below trend line 2, this view will get negated. ( i.e. if it gives daily close below trend line 2, it will be pattern failure ).

 SO LONG TERM INVESTORS CAN BUY TILL NIFTY IS TRADING WITHIN THE FALLING WEDGE ( BETWEEN TWO TREND LINES ) WITH STOP LOSS CLOSE BELOW TREND LINE 2. 

ONCE NIFTY GIVES DAILY CLOSE ABOVE TREND LINE 1, TRAIL ( SHIFT THIS STOP LOSS TO DAILY CLOSE BELOW TREND LINE 1, SO THAT CHANCES OF LOSS WILL BECOME ZERO.

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

SHORT TERM VIEW

Looks like NIFTY FIFTY will test 5200-5225 zone this week and then will start its upward journey once again.

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.

GOOD NEWS --- LONG TERM VIEW FOLLOW UP

On 24 Jan in this post http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/01/drama-will-it-repeat-show-once-again.html , AND on 29 Jan in this post  http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/01/follow-up-will-it-repeat-show-once.html, we have mentioned the possibility of starting new Indian bull market ( up trend ). Now everybody may be agree that it has started. After that NIFTY made high of 5629.95  on 22 Feb, and started correcting and last week made low of   5135.95.

WHAT IS GOOD NEWS--- If someone bought according to above view on 30 Jan. chances of making loss now became zero since unless and until NIFTY gives weekly close below 5135.95, up trend of Indian market will remain intact. So if don't want to bear loss exit if nifty gives weekly close below 5135.95.  Even if someone exits if nifty gives weekly close below 5135.95,  he will exit with profit.

NOW IDEALLY WHAT SHOULD BE DONE  NEXT ? ----

So because of above view if anybody bought stocks/ mutual funds on 30 Jan what r the returns right now and what r future possibilities.

For this first we will see returns of nifty, sensex and some mutual funds from 30 Jan to 4 Apr.

NIFTY  --- 4.63 %
SENSEX --- 3.69 %
DSP BR EQUITY FUND --- 8.27 %
FRANKLIN INDIA BLUECHIP --- 5.86 %
ICICI PRUDENTIAL TOP 100 --- 5.65 %

TATA PURE EQUITY --- 7.01 %

HDFC TOP 200 --- 6.96 %

ICICI PRU DYNAMIC --- 7.07 %

ICICI PRUDENTIAL DISCOVERY --- 10.62 %

IDFC PREMIER EQUITY --- 8.40 %

RELIANCE EQUITY OPPORTUNITIES --- 10.48 %

HDFC EQUITY --- 8.31 %

FRANKLIN INDIA PRIMA PLUS --- 8.04 %

SBI MAGNUM CONTRA --- 7.81 %

RELIANCE GROWTH  --- 7.74 %

Now last 2 weeks price action suggest that unless and until NIFTY gives weekly close below 5135, this ongoing up trend will remain intact. SO -----
(A) If someone has bought on 30 Jan for  long term ( for at least 4-5 years) hold on this investments. Even though nifty goes below 5135, don't exit, and if possible add at level of 5000-5050. In worst case scenario even though nifty goes below 4500, don't panic, if u have invested for long term ( once again repeating at least for 4-5 years ).
(B) If someone has bought for short to medium term ( few weeks to 1-2 years ), then exit ur investment if nifty gives weekly close below 5135, and try to invest when next up trend starts according to technical analysis.
(C) For fresh investments, invest at current level with stop loss weekly close below 5135.

NOTE : -THIS LEVEL OF 5135 WILL CHANGE LATER ON ACCORDING TO FUTURE PRICE ACTION.

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.

MAGIC OF TRENDLINES

Identifying the technique how to draw trend lines, and channels and using them for entry and exits may be one of easy technique for trading purpose.

NIFTY DAILY

The above chart is daily chart of NIFTY.

(A) When it closed above trend line 1, u can buy with stop loss close below trend line 1, for target of trend line 2. See on 30/3/12 it closed above trend line 1, and yesterday it reached trend line 2 and got resisted there so profit should be booked at yesterdays close.

(B) Yesterday it touched trend line 2 and got resisted there so sell at yesterdays close with stop loss close above trend line 2. This position will be for targeting trend line 1 once again.

POSSIBLE FUTURE TRADES ---

(C) If closes above trend line 2, then buy with stop loss close below trend line 2. Target we may post later on if this happens.

(D) If takes support at trend line 1, buy with stop loss close below trend line 1 for target of trend line 2.


(E) If closes below trend line 3, sell with stop loss close above trend line 3 for target of trend line 4.

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.