ALERT !!! FOLLOW UP

Please see this post first - http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/04/alert.html

Now what next--- yesterdays rate cut by RBI improved sentiment and SHORT TERM  trend which was down, turned up yesterday.

INTERMEDIATE TREND is still down. But today on hourly chart it gave breakout above 5306.75, so now if it gives daily close above 5306.75, INTERMEDIATE TREND will also turn up.

LONG TERM TREND is at present sideways to mildly bullish ( up ). If NIFTY gives weekly close above 5378.75 it will be firm indication of up trend. CAUTION --- AT the same time keep eye on 5135.95. If it gives weekly close below 5135.95 possibility of further downside to 4800 / 4530 are more.

So in short as of now Indian market is BUY ON DEEPS   .

AS USUAL THIS IS OUR PERSONAL VIEW AND VISITORS SHOULD DO THERE OWN ANALYSIS BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISION. 

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

SHORT TERM VIEW

NIFTY HOURLY

This is hourly chart of NIFTY. Since last 7 trading sessions ( since 9/4/12 ) NIFTY is trading between 5200-5300 band. Yesterdays rate cut by RBI improved sentiment and today NIFTY broke above 5300 so now within 2-3 trading session it may target 5400. ( 5300-5200 = 100, and 5300 + 100 = 5400 )

Before reaching 5400 it may pull back to test 5300 level, which if happens will be best entry point.

AS USUAL THIS IS OUR PERSONAL VIEW AND VISITORS SHOULD DO THERE OWN ANALYSIS BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISION. 

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

ALERT !!!

Since Dec-Jan we  had bullish bias for Indian markets, but this week's closing price is giving us warning. Now we will say that the TREND is sideways from long term perspective.UNLESS NIFTY GIVES WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE 5380-5400 THE POSSIBILITY OF RESUMING UP TREND IS LOW.

AT THE SAME TIME IF IT GIVES WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 5135 POSSIBILITY OF FURTHER DOWNSIDE ARE HIGH.

If it gives weekly close below 5135 what are the possibilities -----
(1) It will go below 5135, weak hands will be thrown out of the market, and then it will resume it's up trend.
(2) It may make base formation around one of these levels 5000-5050 or 4800 or even test Dec 2011 level of 4530, and then once again start moving up.
(3) In worst case scenario it may go below 4530, will fill the ELECTION GAP created in MAY 2009 ( i.e. 3600-3900 ) level.
(4)will  remain sideways between 5000 and 5400 for few more months, and will resume up trend.
(5) will trade between 4500- 5600 for 2-3 years, and then resume up trend. THIS WILL BE MOST REWARDING SITUATION FOR LONG TERM OR S.I.P. INVESTORS.


SO WHAT SHOULD BE DONE ?
PLAN OF ACTION -------
( A ) If u are trader --- follow your system, be disciplined and follow stop losses strictly.
( B ) If u are short term investor ( for few months to 1-2 year ), exit equity if NIFTY gives weekly close below 5135, and invest when there is clear cut up trend according to technical analysis.
( C ) If you are long term investor ( more than 10 years ), then hold on your existing investment and continue / start investment via S.I.P. route in quality stocks or few good mutual funds.

NOTE --- WE ARE NOT GIVING DETAIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FOR THIS VIEW, TRYING TO EXPLAIN IT IN SIMPLE WORDS. WATCH THE LEVELS GIVEN ABOVE, AND SEE HOW NIFTY REACTS AROUND THESE LEVELS, IT WILL BE INTERESTING.

AS USUAL THIS IS OUR PERSONAL VIEW AND VISITORS SHOULD DO THERE OWN ANALYSIS BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISION. 

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

WHY WE DONT LIKE INDIVIDUAL STOCKS AND PREFER INVESTING IN MUTUAL FUNDS FOR LONG TERM ?

IGL E.O.D. CHART

Today gas related stocks lost significantly on concerns about transportation cost. IGL  ( indraprastha gas ltd.), lost almost 48% in a single day, after some recovery at end of day it closed 33.9 % below the yesterday's closing price.

NOTE :- THIS POST IS INCOMPLETE WILL UPDATE LATER ON.

FALLING WEDGE

NIFTY DAILY

The above chart is E.O.D. NIFTY chart, which shows falling wedge pattern is in making. Falling wedge is bullish pattern, i.e. suggests possibility of continuation of  long term up trend. This possibility will be confirmed once NIFTY gives daily close above trend line 1.

 NOTE : - At the same time if it gives daily close below trend line 2, this view will get negated. ( i.e. if it gives daily close below trend line 2, it will be pattern failure ).

 SO LONG TERM INVESTORS CAN BUY TILL NIFTY IS TRADING WITHIN THE FALLING WEDGE ( BETWEEN TWO TREND LINES ) WITH STOP LOSS CLOSE BELOW TREND LINE 2. 

ONCE NIFTY GIVES DAILY CLOSE ABOVE TREND LINE 1, TRAIL ( SHIFT THIS STOP LOSS TO DAILY CLOSE BELOW TREND LINE 1, SO THAT CHANCES OF LOSS WILL BECOME ZERO.

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.