BEGINNING OF NEW BULL MARKET ?

Looking at current scenario the above question coming to our mind again and again may look like fool. Even now a days we are getting lot of mails predicting high chances of global recession and we r thinking of beginning of new bull market.

Right now Indian stock market is at very critical level so we are constantly looking for both possibilities down as well as up. Even though long term trend is still down, there are some indications that are suggesting possibilities of new bull market. We will post in detail if there is confirmation technically. But just posting one chart why we are so optimistic ?

  The above chart is of INDIA VIX which indicates volatility of indian market, in downtrend volatility increases and vice versa. In the above chart u can see that yesterday it closed below the support line shown in blue colour. Now if it gives weekly close below support line, then there are high chances that Indian market will enter new bull market.

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.

FOLLOW UP WILL IT REPEAT THE SHOW ?

Yesterday in this post ( http://www.kolhapuritrader.blogspot.com/2012/01/will-it-repeat-show.html ) it has been mentioned that nifty will target 4940-50 today, which is all ready achieved, now what will happen next.

On 12 Jan in this post ( http://www.kolhapuritrader.blogspot.com/2012/01/follow-up-evening-doji-star-nifty-stuck.html )  it has been posted that according to our gut feeling it will march towards 5000-50.

NIFTY DAILY CHART

As shown in chart above,  since nifty broke above first down trend line ( T1 ), and looks like it will form bullish candle today, it will take path shown in green or pink color and will target second down trend line ( T2 ) or resistance line shown in blue colour. So looks like it will target approximately 5075-5100 zone.

SO THE QUESTION COME TO MIND -- IS NIFTY ALREADY FORMED A BOTTOM AND THIS IS BEGINNING OF NEW BULL MARKET ? 
THE ANSWER TO ABOVE QUESTION CAN BE FOUND IN THE WEEKLY CHART GIVEN BELOW, UNLESS AND UNTILL THE DOWN TREND LINE SHOWN IN WEEKLY CHART IS TAKEN OUT, WE CAN'T SAY IT IS NEW BULL MARKET, UNTILL THEN THIS RALLY IS PULLBACK RALLY OF BEAR MARKET ONLY.

NIFTY WEEKLY

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.

WILL IT REPEAT THE SHOW ?

As shown in above chart in recent past nifty made bullish move on Tuesday. On 3 Jan. it rose by 2.8%, and on 10 Jan it rose by 2.3 %. Will it repeat this bullish move on tomorrow also. Today after opening lower down due to global cues nifty taken support near weekly pivot and daily S1 ( first support according to pivot point) and then closed above Friday's close, there is high probability that it will make bullish move tomorrow ( since short term trend is still up ) and may target 4940-50 ( weekly R1 according to pivot point ). As usual this trade should be managed by intraday price movement. 

  DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.

FOLLOW UP EVENING DOJI STAR / NIFTY STUCK UP IN RANGE

On 10 Jan we posted that nifty was stuck up in range ( see link http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.com/2012/01/nifty-stuck-up-in-range.html ).On same day it broke out above 4800 and  the target for this break out comes around 5000-5050.

Today morning we mentioned that there is evening doji star formation yesterday ( see link http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.com/2012/01/evening-doji-star.html ), and there is possibility of reversal of short term uptrend. That means nifty will start downtrend. As expected today nifty opened lower.

These 2 are contradictory views but sometimes market don't give clear cut view, hence u should be prepared for both the directions.This is time when short term traders r not sure of the trend.

So as per view posted on 10 Jan there is possibility of up trend ( BULLISH VIEW ), and as per view posted today there is possibility of down trend ( BEARISH VIEW). Today as expected nifty opened lower but taken support near breakout level of 10 Jan ( 4800 ) and today also formed doji ( adjusted level will come around 4831 ). This also indicated that indecisiveness or inconclusiveness of short term traders.

So as of now unless yesterday's high ( 4877.20) is taken out there is no possibility of up trend, and unless 10 Jan low ( 4768.25) is taken out there is no possibility of down trend. Unless one of these two levels taken out nifty will once again stuck up in new range. Who will win BULL or BEAR ? The time will only tell us.

BUT OUR GUT FEELING SAYS THAT IT WILL BREAK YESTERDAY'S HIGH AND WILL MARCH TO  TARGET  5000-5050.

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.

EVENING DOJI STAR ?

This is daily chart of nifty. Yesterday it formed doji and looks like to be evening star doji which needs confirmation by today's price action. Also as shown it also got resisted at 50 sma that to with good volume. Is it indicating reversal of short term up trend we will keep our finger croosed.

Later on will wright in detail regarding evening doji star.

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.