JAN EFFECT

Today while discussing about stock market with one of my friend, he mentioned that it has been observed that during JAN market makes top and start falling / correcting. Is it so or is it a myth ? I just checked our beloved NIFTY chart since 1995.

What is the answer ? If u observe the above chart it can easily noted that out of 18 jan months during 11 jan actually market has gone up from jan level while 7 times it fallen from jan level. So we can't conclude anything or cant say surely that most of the time market makes top during jan and start falling/ correcting.

If we take example of Jan 12 NIFTY on 2 Jan closed at 4636.75 and on 21 Feb it closed at 5607.15 that is it rallied almost 21%, after that it corrected 14%, made a bottom on 23 May 12 and once again  started its upward journey and up till now it gained 22% from closing price on 23 may 12 with intermittent corrections.

If someone  had invested according to the advice given on this blog without seeing short term fluctuations and trying to time the market his  investment have been grown by 25-30 % from 2 Jan till today.

So conclusion is ---- the market may or may not top in jan 2013. If it is going to top /  fall this we will come to know from short term technical analysis. So short term trader will  keep eye on intraday and daily chart and  take decisions according to price behavior , which we may or may not be able to update. LONG TERM INVESTOR SHOULD NOT WORRY SINCE AS OF NOW SHORT, MEDIUM AND LONG TERM TREND IS UP. AS OF NOW LONG TERM  TREND WILL TURN DOWN ONLY IF NIFTY GIVES WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 5548.35

THE LESSON WE LEARNT  ONCE AGAIN --- " REGARDING STOCK MARKET DON'T RELY ON HEARD THINGS / RUMORS . TRY TO STUDY AND ANALISE MARKET SECRETS"


 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

BREAKOUT FROM FLAG PATTERN ON HOURLY CHAT

NIFTY HOURLY

As shown in the above chart NIFTY today gave breakout from consolidation/ flag pattern ( RANGE 5850-5900 ). So now looks like it will target 6000-6025 in coming 3-4 trading sessions. As usual for any trade, the stop loss for this trade is hourly close below 5854.7.

TARGET --- BREAKOUT LEVEL (5900) + HEIGHT OF FLAG POLE ( 100-125 ) = 6000-6025.

 HERE ARE THE LINKS FOR THOSE WHO ARE INTERESTED FOR READING MORE ABOUT FLAG PATTERN ----
http://www.trending123.com/patterns/bull_flag.html

http://www.investopedia.com/university/charts/charts6.asp#axzz2E9Pjkc3u

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

? MARCHING TOWARDS 5950, 6175,6300

NIFTY WEEKLY CHART

Last week NIFTY after consolidating in tight range of 5550-5800 almost for 8 weeks finally gave breakout from flag pattern as shown in the chart.

The target for this flag pattern break out comes to be approximately 6275-6300. Whether it will reach this target ? Frankly speaking we don't know. But we will follow charts, AND   as of now there is possibility of it may target 6275-6300 or eventually it may make new life time high. The hurdles for this are shown by 3 red lines in above chart which are at level of approximately 5950, 6175,6300. NIFTY may start correcting/ falling from these levels, but we will see for reversal signals on chart.

As of now long term investor can hold his equity portfolio with stop loss of weekly close below 5548.35

From Dec 2011 on this blog we are repeatedly advising long term investor to buy. In our last post on 21 Oct we have clearly mentioned that "  This may be one more additional opportunity to add for long term investors. In this down trend NIFTY may correct up to 5450-5550, which if comes will be good level for new investment / addition for existing investors. " ( see this link HOLD ON ). NIFTY taken U turn after making low at 5548.35.

Those who have missed the bus can enter now ? Tough question but the answer is if they are willing to take /  afford risk of  7-8 % capital erosion, then they can buy quality stocks/  good diversified equity mutual fund with strict stop loss of weekly close below 5548.35. In simple words if it gives weekly close below 5548.35 you should exit without second thought and wait for next opportunity.

For those who are interested in reading more about FLAG PATTERN here is the link FLAG PATTERN

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

HOLD ON

It is almost one month since our last post, but there are not much changes technically. As mentioned previously medium and long term trend is up. While short term trend is down / correcting. This may be one more additional opportunity to add for long term investors. In this down trend NIFTY may correct up to 5450-5550, which if comes will be good level for new investment / addition for existing investors.

If nifty starts trading below 5450, then it will be early sign for possibility of down trend and we should be cautious.

As of now stop loss for long term investor is 5215.7 on weekly closing basis.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

LONG TERM VIEW --- TECHNICALLY IT IS NEW BULL MARKET ( TEJI )

2 Days back our friend sent following message ----

SILSILA - NIFTY STYLE :

Main aur meri tanhai
Aksar yeh baatein karte hain---
Teji hoti to aisa hota
Teji hoti ti vaisa hota---
Hum yeh lete hum voh lete---
Hum iss scrip ki delivery lete
Hum uss scrip ka future lete---
Magar yeh ho na saka
aur ab yeh aalam hai---
Ki stock bhi nahin aur
margin bharne ke paise bhi nahin ---
Guzar rahi hai zindagi kuch is tarah ---
Jaise usse koi bullish signal ki umeed bhi nahin---
Mai aur meri tanhai
aksar yeh battein karte hain---

BUT FRIENDS TECHNICALLY INDIAN MARKET ALL READY ENTERED NEW BULL MARKET.

FROM DEC 2011 ON THIS BLOG WE ARE ADVISING LONG TERM INVESTORS SHOULD INVEST IN STOCK MARKET DURING CURRENT FALL. HERE ARE SOME LINKS TO OUR POSTS FROM DEC 2011.

1) IS IT RIGHT TIME TO INVEST IN STOCK MARKET FOR LONG TERM INVESTOR ?
2) DRAMA - WILL IT REPEAT THE SHOW ONCE AGAIN ?
3)FOLLOW UP WILL IT REPEAT THE SHOW ONCE AGAIN ?
4)BEGINNING OF NEW BULL MARKET ?  ( As mentioned in this post INDIAVIX given weekly close below support line on 30 march 2012 )
5) INDIA VIX IN BEAR MARKET ( As mentioned in this since last 2-3 weeks we r seeing beginning of positive news flow )
6) NIFTY LONG TERM VIEW UPDATE
7) http://www.kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/06/long-term-view.html
8) http://www.kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/06/follow-up-long-term-view.html
9) LONG TERM VIEW
10) ??? OPPORTUNITY


These are the various links where we repeatedly mentioned and advised regarding long term . Now those who have invested according to these views can hold there investments. As of now if NIFTY gives weekly close below 5215.7 then and then only there is possibility of down trend otherwise this up move will continue with intermittent corrections/ falls. This level will change according to future price action which we will mention on blog so keep following. Now even if NIFTY gives weekly close below 5215.7 those who have invested will exit cost to cost or with some profit.

NOTE:- For investors who have not invested yet --- 1) wait for 2-3% fall/ correction and then invest OR if u are ready to bear loss of 8-10 % for possibility of handsome gain can invest at current level. But word of caution key to success is selection of quality stocks or mutual funds.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

SHORT TERM VIEW --- FOLLOW THE CHARTS NEWS WILL FOLLOW

On 7'th Sept in this post FOLLOW UP SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM VIEW under short term view we mentioned that --- " Now the short term trend also turned up, so short term trader can buy any dips ". As per our analysis NIFTY continued it's upward journey and today opened up almost by 2% due to global cues from American markets. So it has proved once again that FOLLOW THE CHARTS AND NEWS WILL FOLLOW.

Since our post on 7'th Sept NIFTY is all ready up by 230 points ( i.e. approximately 4.3% up ) so short term traders can book profit here or wait for the next target. What is the next target ? To answer this question we have to analyze the charts.

NIFTY HOURLY CHART

 The above chart is showing ROUNDING BOTTOM or CUP N HANDLE PATTERN on hourly time frame. Today NIFTY gave breakout from this pattern. Target for this pattern will be height of pattern ( AB = which is roughly 225 points ). So target will be 5445 + 225 = 5670.
        So any pullbacks upto 5425 - 5450 range will be bought for above mentioned target with stop loss of hourly close below 5421.95.

At the same time long term charts ( daily n weekly ) are showing resistance in the range of 5600-5630, so be cautious and follow stop losses strictly.

FOLLOW UP SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM VIEW

SHORT TERM VIEW :-

Today at 10 am nifty closed at 5317.35 and since it taken out 5280 successfully,  the view mentioned in this post SHORT TERM VIEW got negated. Now the short term trend also turned up, so short term trader can buy any dips with recent low i.e. 5215.7 as stop loss. NIFTY may retrace i.e. fall back to test 5240-5280 range which if happens may be buying opportunity.

LONG TERM VIEW :-

On 3'rd Sept. in this post ??? OPPORTUNITY we have mentioned that " Right now NIFTY is trading near 5250. And there are high chances that it will take support in the region of 5175-5250 and bounce back. So long term investors can use current fall as opportunity to buy for handsome gain." Right now from short term chart it looks like short term bottom has been formed. But the points mentioned under short term view don't have any importance for long term investors. LONG TERM INVESTORS SHOULD KEEP EYE ON NIFTY LEVEL 5032.4. IF NIFTY DON'T GIVE WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 5032.4 HOLD ON YOUR LONG TERM INVESTMENT OR USE ANY FALL/ DIPS/ CORRECTIONS AS BUYING OPPORTUNITIES. 

As shown in the daily chart above NIFTY tested green trend line and bounced back NOW it may target the red trend lines or once again may fall to test the green trend line in the daily line chart of NIFTY which is not tested yet.  Daily line chart of nifty is shown below.

 

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

 

SHORT TERM VIEW

Right now NIFTY is trading near 5240. There is DESCENDING TRIANGLE breakdown on shorter time frame, so now if 5280 is not taken out it will target at least 5180.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

??? OPPORTUNITY

On 6'th Aug in this post SHORT TERM VIEW  we have mentioned that there is breakout from inverse head and  shoulder and NIFTY will target 5425-5450. On 23/8 it made high of 5248.45 and started correcting from that level.. This is how we can use technical analysis for short term trading.

This post is especially for people who are investing for long term and don't understand about fundamental or technical analysis. Right now NIFTY is trading near 5250. And there are high chances that it will take support in the region of 5175-5250 and bounce back. So long term investors can use current fall as opportunity to buy for handsome gain. The stop loss for this will be weekly close below 5030. So the risk reward ratio is very much favorable, if there is loss it will be only 3-5%.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

FOLLOW UP --- OPPORTUNITY

Today because of global cues it looks like market will open lower ( NIFTY around 5390 ), this will be opportunity to buy. Stop loss will be as mentioned in previous posts.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

FOLLOW UP OPPORTUNITY

On Friday 17 Aug, in this post --- ??? OPPORTUNITY   advised to buy if nifty gives weekly close above blue trend line ( SEE CHART  ). But nifty didn't gave clear cut break out above the blue trend line.

However it closed above the previous swing high on weekly chart. So this market is now BUY ON DEEPS from long term perspective. So any fall should be bought.

Right now the trend on hourly chart is down / sideways. While on daily and weekly chart it is in up trend. So any fall / correction is buying opportunity. The stop loss for short term investors ( few weeks to months ) will be daily close below 5294, while for long term investors ( for more than 2-3 years ) stop loss will be weekly close below 5032.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

??? OPPORTUNITY

NIFTY WEEKLY

As shown in above chart NIFTY came out of bearish ( downtrend ) channel -- shown with 2 red lines and gave bullish ( up trend ) on weekly closing basis on 3/2/12. After that may and June 12 it tested breakout line ( i.e. upper red  line )  and started its up ward journey once again.

After break out right now it is trading  within bullish ( up trending ) chaneel --- which is shown with 2 green lines.

Now it is facing resistance at one more trend line which is shown in blue colour. Now if it gives weekly close above blue trend line long term investors ( for minimum period of 3-4 years ) can buy quality stocks or mutual funds. There is very high chances of doubling capital within next 3-5 years.

CAUTION :-: YOU HAVE TO WAIT FOR CLEAR CUT BREAK OUT ( WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE BLUE TREND LINE ), BUY ONLY IF THERE IS WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE BLUE TREND LINE.

The first target for this target will be upper green line i.e. 5900- 6000

STOP LOSS FOR THIS WILL BE WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 5032.4

CONTRA POSSIBILITY --- right now fundamentals are not supporting this up move. As per saying - " technicals improve first and later on fundamentals follow ", BUT you never know so you should be prepared for contra possibility. SO if it gives weekly close below lower green trend line NIFTY may go to 4000-4100 level.

SO IN SHORT ONE SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS AND IF BUY AFTER WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE BLUE TREND LINE ONE SHOULD SELL ALL HIS STOCKS / MUTUAL FUNDS IF NIFTY GIVES WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 5032.4 AND WAIT PATIENTLY FOR NEXT OPPORTUNITY.
DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

SHORT TERM VIEW

NIFTY 5 MIN

This is 5 min chart of nifty. Today at 9:40 am it gave opening range breakout. Opening range means range made in first 15 minutes. So now there is high probability that today it may target ---- Target 1) 5364-5365 and then may try to reach Target 2) 5379-80.  THE STOP LOSS FOR THIS TRADE IS 5 MIN CANDLE CLOSE BELOW TODAY'S LOW I.E. 5336.85


DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

FOLLOW UP --- SHORT TERM N LONG TERM VIEW

As posted on 8 Aug in this link SHORT TERM VIEW , NIFTY started correction and on Friday it took support almost near the breakout trend line.  Now if holds above this trend line and Fridays low, there are chances that once again it will try to resume its up trend. 

As posted on 8 Aug only in this link LONG TERM VIEW , it has been clearly mentioned that " As shown in the chart above there is one more resistance line on weekly chart, near which NIFTY is trading right now. So actually if NIFTY gives weekly close above this trend line, and also weekly close above previous swing pivot i.e. above 5350 ( to be precise above 5348.55), very much  strength will be added to this up move ".

But nifty failed to close above this long term weekly trend line, in fact it got resisted and formed bearish grave stone doji at this trend line and started correcting.

 So as of now long term trend is slightly bullish to sideways, so unless and until it gives weekly close above 5350, long term investors should not buy.

CAUTION:- The blog writers are also learners of technical analysis and the view mentioned here are on blog writers knowledge and inference of technical analysis, so readers are advised to take advice from expert financial advisers or do there own research before taking any decisions.

One more thing we like to mention:- in technical analysis you have to change your views according to future price action or pattern development and writers of this blog may or may not be able to update changed views.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

SHORT TERM VIEW

BEARISH GRAVESTONE DOJI :-

NIFTY - DAILY

Today on daily chart NIFTY formed BEARISH GRAVESTONE DOJI CANDLESTICK PATTERN which suggest there may be end of this up move for a while. This candlestick pattern will need confirmation next day. Confirmation may be in the form of  tommorow's opening below today's close. The larger the gap the stronger the confirmation will be. A black candlestick with lower prices can also be another form of confirmation.
That means now there are chances that the price will test the upper border of triangle, which may or may not act as support.

Those who are interested for further information regarding  BEARISH GRAVESTONE DOJI, can visit this link http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs46.asp


DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

LONG TERM VIEW

Even though fundamentals of Indian and world economy are not supporting  technicals   are suggesting possibility of long term up move ( at least for next 2-3 years ). In Nov 2010 NIFTY / SENSEX after testing the previous high made in 2008 started there downward journey. And as of now made bottom in DEC 2011.

NIFTY - WEEKLY

The chart given above is weekly chart. During down move from Nov 10, it formed downward moving trend line which acted as resistance for 4 times. Finally in Feb 12 NIFTY able to breakout above the resistance line. After breakout NIFTY tested the trend line in May n June when previous resistance line acted as support.

 As shown in the weekly chart above, NIFTY after breakout above resistance line consolidated ( i.e. traded in a narrow range) and in the process formed a triangle pattern. Yesterday it gave breakout from this triangle pattern on daily closing basis. So now it may target 5550-5600 with intermittent correction, meanwhile it may correct and may test upper boundary of the triangle.
CAUTION:- in market breakouts may fail, and you have to change your views according to future price action with proper stop losses.

  As shown in the chart above there is one more resistance line on weekly chart, near which NIFTY is trading right now. So actually if NIFTY gives weekly close above this trend line, and also weekly close above previous swing pivot i.e. above 5350 ( to be precise above 5348.55), very much  strength will be added to this up move

SO IN SHORT, IF NIFTY GIVES WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE 5350 ONE CAN SAFELY BUY QUALITY STOCKS OR MUTUAL FUNDS FOR INITIAL TARGET OF 5600. AND IF THINGS GO WELL IT MAY TARGET 6300 IN APR-JUNE  QUARTER OF 2013.  

THE STOP LOSS FOR THIS VIEW AS OF NOW IS WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 5030 ( TO BE PRECISE BELOW 5032.40 ). i.e. IF NIFTY GIVES WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 5032.40 YOU SHOULD EXIT ALL YOUR BUY POSITIONS. 

IF NIFTY GIVES WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE THE RESISTANCE LINE AND 5350 THERE WILL BE HIGH PROBABILITY THAT IN NEXT 2-3 YEARS IT MAY REACH 10,000. SO IF IT GIVES WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE THE LEVELS MENTIONED ABOVE AND ONE IS READY TO ACCEPT LOSS OF 6-10% FOR A POSSIBILITY OF DOUBLING CAPITAL WITHIN NEXT 2-3 YEARS ONE CAN BUY QUALITY STOCK / MUTUAL FUND WITH STOP LOSS OF WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 5030.

CAUTION:- The blog writers are also learners of technical analysis and the view mentioned here are on blog writers knowledge and inference of technical analysis, so readers are advised to take advice from expert financial advisers or do there own research before taking any decisions.

One more thing we like to mention:- in technical analysis you have to change your views according to future price action or pattern development and writers of this blog may or may not be able to update changed views.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

LONG TERM VIEW--- WILL NIFTY SEE 5600 WITHIN MONTH ?

The question coming to our mind will nifty see 5600 level by first or second week of Sept ? The answer is yes if and only if it trades above 5030 on weekly closing basis.

If time permits will post detail technical analysis for same later on so please keep following.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

SHORT TERM VIEW

Today nifty opened gap up and gave breakout from INVERSE HEAD AND SHOULDER PATTERN, as shown in the hourly chart below.

NIFTY HOURLY

The rough target for this breakout will be 5425-5450. For this to achieve NIFTY should trade above the neck line. If NIFTY gives hourly close  below neckline then this trading pattern will get negated.

As of now the overall trend of market is sideways (range bound) trade cautiously and follow the stop losses with strict discipline.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

LONG TERM VIEW FOLLOW UP

As mentioned in our last post http://www.kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/07/long-term-view-follow-up.html the profit has been booked at 5320-5350 zone or when NIFTY closed below previous 2 days low i.e. on 12 July at 5235 level. So in terms of index this is 9 % returns. Individual stock / mutual funds may have given returns  in the range of 6-12 %. We think this is not bad during present market situation.

Via long term analysis we are trying to preserve our capital as well as to take advantages of short term up sides. So as of now no position. Right now our advice will buy only if NIFTY gives weekly close above 5378.75.

Those who are willing to take risk can again invest 33% of  capital at current level i.e. 5180-5200 zone with stop loss of 5000 on closing basis.

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

SHORT TERM TRADING STRATEGY

NIFTY DAILY

As shown in the daily chart nifty is forming RISING WEDGE. The rising wedge pattern is characterized by a chart pattern which forms when the market makes higher highs and higher lows with a contracting range. When this pattern is found in an uptrend, it is considered a reversal pattern, as the contraction of the range indicates that the uptrend is losing strength.

That means the ongoing uptrend is losing its strength and there is possibility of correction. Our trading strategy which is based on hourly chart also given indication to book profit on Friday.  But this pattern will indicate that there is possibility of correction but it is not sure. There will be more chances if it breaks previous 2 days low.At the same time if it gives hourly close above 5340-5350 it may go to 5430. So be cautious and trade with strict stop loss.

If there is correction the supports will be 50 EMA on daily chart i.e. 5125, 200 EMA on daily chart i.e. 5160, and the gap created on  29/6.

SO WHAT SHOULD BE TRADING STRATEGY NEXT WEEK ?

 A) if next week nifty first goes down and gives hourly close below 5300, then short (sell) nifty with strict stop loss of hourly close above 5335 for target of 5150-5180.
      Again buy near 5150-5180 with stop loss of 5120 for target of 5430

B) if next week nifty first  goes up to 5430 then sell with stop loss of hourly close above  5450 for target of 5180-5200.
       Again buy near 5150-5180 with stop loss of 5120 for target of 5430

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

LONG TERM VIEW --- FOLLOW UP

On 18 june in this post FOLLOW UP  it has been advised to either book profit at 5170-5200 zone or keep previous 2 days low as stop loss.

NIFTY DAILY

If u observe daily chart of NIFTY given above u can realize that NIFTY never gave close below previous 2 days low, so now those who are holding buy position from 4800 level can book profit at 5320-5350 zone or can ride this up move by keeping stop loss of close below previous 2 days low.

WHY 5180-5200 ZONE IS IMPORTANT FOR LONG TERM INVESTOR ?

The answer is hidden in the chart given below --- 

NIFTY WEEKLY

  This is weekly chart of NIFTY, it has taken support ( green arrows ) as well as faced resistance ( red arrows ) so many times at this zone.

So those who booked profit can re-enter on pull back to 5200 level and invest 33% of there capital at this level with stop loss of weekly closing below 5000.

For investing for remaining 66% capital will update according to future price action. As of now weekly close above 5380 is important for further decision making.

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

FOLLOW UP SHORT TERM VIEW

According to this post SHORT TERM VIEW NIFTY gave hourly close above 5190-5200 on Friday. So now it may target 5320-5350, even 5400 may be possible.

Short term traders should keep stop loss of hourly closing below 5190.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

SHORT TERM VIEW

If nifty gives hourly close above 5190-5200 possibility of extending this up move to 5320-5350.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

FOLLOW UP

On Sunday 10 June, in this post  FOLLOW UP --- LONG TERM VIEW , it has been advised to book profit at nifty level of 5200. Last week after consolidation for 4 days finally on Friday nifty closed at 5139.05

Now there is strong resistance for nifty in 5170-5200 range. So those who don't  want   to take risk and willing to lock profit in this 5170-5200 zone. ( probably today only during opening hour ).

At the same time if nifty breaks this 5170-5200 zone it may easily go up to 5300-5400. So those who are willing to loose some part from profit for chances of making more profit can ride the ongoing up trend with stop loss of previous 2 days low.

Today there will be RBI policy announcement so market will be volatile, if there is positive surprise it may go much higher. At the same time if there is disappointment chances of testing recent low around 4770-4800 band are also high. So as of now those who are willing to take risk keep strict stop loss of previous 2 days low on daily closing basis and ride this wave.

Those who are not willing to take risk book profit. New entry level will be mentioned later on if there is correction and if there is no correction one can enter once again if there is weekly close above 5378.75 since long term trend will turn up.

   DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

FOLLOW UP --- LONG TERM VIEW

On 1'st June in this post ( http://www.kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/06/long-term-view.html ), we have advised that high risk investors should invest 33% of investible  surplus at 4800-4850 level. On very next trading session ( i.e. 4/6/12 ) it made low of 4770 and started up move.

Right now even though long term trend is now, short term and medium term trend is up. Those who bought arond 4800-4850 should book profit at nifty level of 5200. But to reach level of 5200 it has to clear resistance at 5100-5120 zone. So keep stop loss of previous two days low.

NOTE : - TO TURN LONG TERM TREND UP NIFTY SHOULD GIVE WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE 5378.75. 

Since there is  GLOOM N DOOM scenario all over world right now, in long term view we are trying to capitalize on short / medium term rebounds, at the same time we will be fully invested whenever there is long term up trend. In this effort we may have to take small losses, but the main objective is we will try to preserve our capital at the same time we will not miss the  long term opportunity.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

GOLD --- FOLLOW UP

On 3 June we mentioned that gold has been  given breakout from ascending triangle and it may target 33000. Now let's see what happened ?

If u observe the above chart carefully, you will note that on  7 June gold sold of sharply, but actually it tested the breakout level. And for short term trader retracement  to break out level is good buying opportunity.

To minimize risk short term trader should keep stop loss of daily close below 28750, while medium term investor should keep stop loss of weekly close below 27855.

NOTE :- Since 2004-05 gold had dream run, so this is not right time to invest, since it is in strong uptrend, someone can invest for short period with proper technical analysis and with strict stop loss.

CAUTION :- Even though gold in rupee terms given breakout from ascending triangle.If u observe the chart of gold in dollar terms given below u can realize that, after forming top around $1780 in Feb 12, it is in down trend and trying to take support around $1540. So recent appreciation in gold in rupee terms may be because of rupee depreciation. So take care while trading / buying gold.

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

GOLD --- 33,000 ?

This is weekly chart of gold which shows this week gold had breakout from ASCENDING TRIANGLE pattern. On 1/6/12 it made LIFE TIME HIGH also. The breakout from ascending triangle pattern gives target roughly around 33,000/-, will it be achieved? We will just wait n watch.

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

LONG TERM VIEW

It is more than one month from our last post. In last month we were away from market, internet almost for more than 15 days and also due to hectic work schedule it was not possible to update.

Even though we have not updated, in our last post  ( see link http://www.kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/04/nothing-new-range-bound.html ) we have clearly mentioned that "  (B) FOR DOWN SIDE BREAK OUT
      Daily close below 5183.5 will be first indication that there is possibility of down side.
      Weekly close below 5135.95 will be more confirmatory sign for downside."

Those who have followed these levels mentioned in our last post must have benefited

See what happened actually --- on Friday 4/5/12 it gave daily close below 5183.5, as well as weekly close below 5135.95 which was clear cut indication for exiting long term investments. After that within 10 trading sessions nifty made low of 4788.95 ( on 18/5/12 ).

 THERE IS LONG TERM TREND LINE SUPPORT AS WELL AS 200SMA ON WEEKLY CHART IN THE REGION OF 4800-4850  ( which has all ready given support once ) . AT THE SAME TIME RIGHT NOW TREND ON DAILY, WEEKLY AS WELL AS MONTHLY TIME FRAME IS DOWN SO CHANCES OF BREAKING OF THIS SUPPORT ARE VERY HIGH. BECAUSE OF WHICH TESTING OF  LOW MADE IN DEC 11 ARE VERY HIGH ( 4500- 4600 ZONE )

SO NOW PLAN FOR LONG TERM INVESTMENT --

( A) For high risk investor --- those who can digest 20-30% erosion ( on paper ) in there capital should put 33% of investible  surplus in good diversified equity mutual funds or fundamentally good stocks  at following three levels --- 

        1) 4800-4850

        2) 4400

        3) 3900-4000

( B) For conservative investor --- whenever there is confirmed up trend on weekly charts. Until it happens park your money in short term F.D. or liquid mutual funds.

Those who have acted according to our posts on (1) 24 jan 12 ( possibility of starting new bull market, which actually happened because of weekly close above 27/1/12). So those who invested in good mutual funds on next trading session and exited  according to our post  (2) 29/4/12 once it has given weekly close below 5135.95 9 ( on 4/5/12 so exit should be on next trading session i.e. 7/5/12 ) must have made profit of  3-10%.

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

NOTHING NEW --- RANGE BOUND

As shown in above chart NIFTY is trading within the FALLING WEDGE since 22 Feb and unless and untill there is clear cut break out from this wedge there will not be any significant move.

   On 19 Apr there is breakout on daily chart which turned out to be falls breakout since from 23 Apr once again NIFTY is trading within falling wedge.  So unless there is weekly close outside this wedge there will not be any significant move.

   Keep watch on following levels ---
(A) FOR UP SIDE BREAK OUT
      Daily close above 5342.45 will be first indication that there is possibility of upside.
      Weekly close above 5378.75 will be more confirmatory sign for upside.

(B) FOR DOWN SIDE BREAK OUT
      Daily close below 5183.5 will be first indication that there is possibility of down side.
      Weekly close below 5135.95 will be more confirmatory sign for downside.

NOTE :- FALLING WEDGE IS BULLISH PATTERN ( SUGGESTING POSSIBILITY OF UPSIDE). BUT YOU NEVER KNOW SO WAIT FOR CLEAR CUT WEEKLY CLOSING OUTSIDE THE WEDGE.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

STILL BULLISH

On 18 APR it has been mentioned that "  INTERMEDIATE TREND is still down. But today on hourly chart it gave breakout above 5306.75, so now if it gives daily close above 5306.75, INTERMEDIATE TREND will also turn up." WHAT HAPPENED - on 19 Apr it closed at 5332.4, Thus ON Thursday 19 Apr INTERMEDIATE TREND also turned up. SO NOW SHORT, INTERMEDIATE AND LONG ALL TIME FRAMES ARE SHOWING UP TREND.

On Friday 20 Apr. whatever may be the reason ( some say it is trading error ) NIFTY FUTURE intraday made low of 5000, because of which many traders/ investors became nervous.( if interested see link http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/stock-markets/article3336580.ece ). Reliance results which declared on Friday after market timing are not according to expectations, macro-economic fundamentals are yet not suggesting possibility of UP TREND. STILL WE ARE OF THE VIEW THAT THERE IS HIGH PROBABILITY OF UP MOVE AND IN NEXT 2-3 MONTHS NIFTY MAY SEE 5700 LEVEL  AND IF FUNDAMENTALS IMPROVE MAY SEE LEVEL OF 6000 OR NEW LIFE TIME HIGH IN NEXT 1 YEAR OR SO. This view is because  we always follow SCREEN/ CHART/ PRICE ACTION, and as of now it is showing possibility of up up move.

we will not discuss detail technical analysis- why we are bullish, since it may look boring to some of readers. Just giving two technical reasons for bullish view.

1)

PIN BAR

 As shown in above chart NIFTY had made pin bar candlestick pattern on weekly chart ( week ending 30/3/12. And this PIN BAR has formed at very significant pivot point ( YEARLY PIVOT POINT OF NIFTY 5112.)
If anyone interested in reading about PIN BAR CANDLESTICK REVERSAL PATTERN VISIT THIS LINK http://www.forextofreedom.com/pin-bar-candlestick-reversal-pattern  

2)

BULLISH ENGULFING

As shown in above chart this week NIFTY had formed BULLISH ENGULFING PATTERN on weekly chart which again suggest possibility of up move.

If anyone interested in reading about BULLISH ENGULFING PATTERN visit this link http://www.candlestickforum.com/PPF/Parameters/16_441_/candlestick.asp

CAUTION : - AS USUAL U NEVER KNOW WHEN MARKET WILL REVERSE ITS DIRECTION, SO KEEP EYE ON 5135 LEVEL, IF NIFTY GIVES WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 5135 THIS WHOLE VIEW OF LONG TERM UP TREND WILL GET NEGATED AND THERE WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF DOWN SIDE.

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

LAGATA HAI PICTURE ABHI BAKI HAI !!!

Check following 4 posts ---
1) http://www.kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/04/falling-wedge.html
2) http://www.kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/04/alert.html
3) http://www.kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/04/short-term-view_18.html
4) http://www.kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/04/alert-follow-up.html

So what happened today--- today there was gap up opening above upper trend line of falling wedge, but later on NIFTY got sold of and given daily close exactly at 5300.

NIFTY DAILY

We all ready mentioned that if it gives daily close above 5306.75, INTERMEDIATE TREND will also turn up.That means as of now INTERMEDIATE TREND is still down.

 
At the same time SHORT TERM TREND is up, while LONG TERM TREND is sideways to up.

THAT MEANS EVEN THOUGH NIFTY BROKE OUT ABOVE THE UPPER TREND LINE OF FALLING WEDGE THERE IS STILL CONFUSION REGARDING DIRECTION OF MARKET.

AT THE SAME TIME NOTE THAT CHAIKIN MONEY  FLOW AND MONEY FLOW INDEX HAVE GIVEN BREAK OUT ABOVE 0 AND 40 RESPECTIVELY SO THE FUTURE DIRECTION IS MORE LIKELY IN THE UP WARD DIRECTION. BUT YOU NEVER KNOW SO WAIT FOR CLEAR CUT INDICATION.

IN SHORT NIFTY IS IN CONSOLIDATION PHASE SINCE 22 FEB, AND AS OF NOW LOOKS LIKE PICTURE ABHI BAKI HAI, i.e. it will consolidate for few more days, MOST PROBABLY IT WILL GIVE CLEAR INDICATION ON COMING FRIDAY  OR  DURING NEXT WEEK.

These are tough times for traders, lot of traders loose significant amount of money during periods like these and even quite few of them are thrown out of the market. Such periods are so painful that some of the traders never return to market in there life time.

DURING SUCH PERIODS LOT OF PATIENCE, DISCIPLINE IS REQUIRED. DURING SUCH PERIODS IT IS BETTER TO REMAIN OUT SIDE THE MARKET UN TILL THERE IS CLEAR CUT BREAKOUT, AND YOU ARE  SURE REGARDING FURTHER DIRECTION.

 AS USUAL THIS IS OUR PERSONAL VIEW AND VISITORS SHOULD DO THERE OWN ANALYSIS BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISION. 

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

ALERT !!! FOLLOW UP

Please see this post first - http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/04/alert.html

Now what next--- yesterdays rate cut by RBI improved sentiment and SHORT TERM  trend which was down, turned up yesterday.

INTERMEDIATE TREND is still down. But today on hourly chart it gave breakout above 5306.75, so now if it gives daily close above 5306.75, INTERMEDIATE TREND will also turn up.

LONG TERM TREND is at present sideways to mildly bullish ( up ). If NIFTY gives weekly close above 5378.75 it will be firm indication of up trend. CAUTION --- AT the same time keep eye on 5135.95. If it gives weekly close below 5135.95 possibility of further downside to 4800 / 4530 are more.

So in short as of now Indian market is BUY ON DEEPS   .

AS USUAL THIS IS OUR PERSONAL VIEW AND VISITORS SHOULD DO THERE OWN ANALYSIS BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISION. 

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

SHORT TERM VIEW

NIFTY HOURLY

This is hourly chart of NIFTY. Since last 7 trading sessions ( since 9/4/12 ) NIFTY is trading between 5200-5300 band. Yesterdays rate cut by RBI improved sentiment and today NIFTY broke above 5300 so now within 2-3 trading session it may target 5400. ( 5300-5200 = 100, and 5300 + 100 = 5400 )

Before reaching 5400 it may pull back to test 5300 level, which if happens will be best entry point.

AS USUAL THIS IS OUR PERSONAL VIEW AND VISITORS SHOULD DO THERE OWN ANALYSIS BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISION. 

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

ALERT !!!

Since Dec-Jan we  had bullish bias for Indian markets, but this week's closing price is giving us warning. Now we will say that the TREND is sideways from long term perspective.UNLESS NIFTY GIVES WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE 5380-5400 THE POSSIBILITY OF RESUMING UP TREND IS LOW.

AT THE SAME TIME IF IT GIVES WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 5135 POSSIBILITY OF FURTHER DOWNSIDE ARE HIGH.

If it gives weekly close below 5135 what are the possibilities -----
(1) It will go below 5135, weak hands will be thrown out of the market, and then it will resume it's up trend.
(2) It may make base formation around one of these levels 5000-5050 or 4800 or even test Dec 2011 level of 4530, and then once again start moving up.
(3) In worst case scenario it may go below 4530, will fill the ELECTION GAP created in MAY 2009 ( i.e. 3600-3900 ) level.
(4)will  remain sideways between 5000 and 5400 for few more months, and will resume up trend.
(5) will trade between 4500- 5600 for 2-3 years, and then resume up trend. THIS WILL BE MOST REWARDING SITUATION FOR LONG TERM OR S.I.P. INVESTORS.


SO WHAT SHOULD BE DONE ?
PLAN OF ACTION -------
( A ) If u are trader --- follow your system, be disciplined and follow stop losses strictly.
( B ) If u are short term investor ( for few months to 1-2 year ), exit equity if NIFTY gives weekly close below 5135, and invest when there is clear cut up trend according to technical analysis.
( C ) If you are long term investor ( more than 10 years ), then hold on your existing investment and continue / start investment via S.I.P. route in quality stocks or few good mutual funds.

NOTE --- WE ARE NOT GIVING DETAIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FOR THIS VIEW, TRYING TO EXPLAIN IT IN SIMPLE WORDS. WATCH THE LEVELS GIVEN ABOVE, AND SEE HOW NIFTY REACTS AROUND THESE LEVELS, IT WILL BE INTERESTING.

AS USUAL THIS IS OUR PERSONAL VIEW AND VISITORS SHOULD DO THERE OWN ANALYSIS BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISION. 

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

WHY WE DONT LIKE INDIVIDUAL STOCKS AND PREFER INVESTING IN MUTUAL FUNDS FOR LONG TERM ?

IGL E.O.D. CHART

Today gas related stocks lost significantly on concerns about transportation cost. IGL  ( indraprastha gas ltd.), lost almost 48% in a single day, after some recovery at end of day it closed 33.9 % below the yesterday's closing price.

NOTE :- THIS POST IS INCOMPLETE WILL UPDATE LATER ON.

FALLING WEDGE

NIFTY DAILY

The above chart is E.O.D. NIFTY chart, which shows falling wedge pattern is in making. Falling wedge is bullish pattern, i.e. suggests possibility of continuation of  long term up trend. This possibility will be confirmed once NIFTY gives daily close above trend line 1.

 NOTE : - At the same time if it gives daily close below trend line 2, this view will get negated. ( i.e. if it gives daily close below trend line 2, it will be pattern failure ).

 SO LONG TERM INVESTORS CAN BUY TILL NIFTY IS TRADING WITHIN THE FALLING WEDGE ( BETWEEN TWO TREND LINES ) WITH STOP LOSS CLOSE BELOW TREND LINE 2. 

ONCE NIFTY GIVES DAILY CLOSE ABOVE TREND LINE 1, TRAIL ( SHIFT THIS STOP LOSS TO DAILY CLOSE BELOW TREND LINE 1, SO THAT CHANCES OF LOSS WILL BECOME ZERO.

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.

SHORT TERM VIEW

Looks like NIFTY FIFTY will test 5200-5225 zone this week and then will start its upward journey once again.

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.

GOOD NEWS --- LONG TERM VIEW FOLLOW UP

On 24 Jan in this post http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/01/drama-will-it-repeat-show-once-again.html , AND on 29 Jan in this post  http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/01/follow-up-will-it-repeat-show-once.html, we have mentioned the possibility of starting new Indian bull market ( up trend ). Now everybody may be agree that it has started. After that NIFTY made high of 5629.95  on 22 Feb, and started correcting and last week made low of   5135.95.

WHAT IS GOOD NEWS--- If someone bought according to above view on 30 Jan. chances of making loss now became zero since unless and until NIFTY gives weekly close below 5135.95, up trend of Indian market will remain intact. So if don't want to bear loss exit if nifty gives weekly close below 5135.95.  Even if someone exits if nifty gives weekly close below 5135.95,  he will exit with profit.

NOW IDEALLY WHAT SHOULD BE DONE  NEXT ? ----

So because of above view if anybody bought stocks/ mutual funds on 30 Jan what r the returns right now and what r future possibilities.

For this first we will see returns of nifty, sensex and some mutual funds from 30 Jan to 4 Apr.

NIFTY  --- 4.63 %
SENSEX --- 3.69 %
DSP BR EQUITY FUND --- 8.27 %
FRANKLIN INDIA BLUECHIP --- 5.86 %
ICICI PRUDENTIAL TOP 100 --- 5.65 %

TATA PURE EQUITY --- 7.01 %

HDFC TOP 200 --- 6.96 %

ICICI PRU DYNAMIC --- 7.07 %

ICICI PRUDENTIAL DISCOVERY --- 10.62 %

IDFC PREMIER EQUITY --- 8.40 %

RELIANCE EQUITY OPPORTUNITIES --- 10.48 %

HDFC EQUITY --- 8.31 %

FRANKLIN INDIA PRIMA PLUS --- 8.04 %

SBI MAGNUM CONTRA --- 7.81 %

RELIANCE GROWTH  --- 7.74 %

Now last 2 weeks price action suggest that unless and until NIFTY gives weekly close below 5135, this ongoing up trend will remain intact. SO -----
(A) If someone has bought on 30 Jan for  long term ( for at least 4-5 years) hold on this investments. Even though nifty goes below 5135, don't exit, and if possible add at level of 5000-5050. In worst case scenario even though nifty goes below 4500, don't panic, if u have invested for long term ( once again repeating at least for 4-5 years ).
(B) If someone has bought for short to medium term ( few weeks to 1-2 years ), then exit ur investment if nifty gives weekly close below 5135, and try to invest when next up trend starts according to technical analysis.
(C) For fresh investments, invest at current level with stop loss weekly close below 5135.

NOTE : -THIS LEVEL OF 5135 WILL CHANGE LATER ON ACCORDING TO FUTURE PRICE ACTION.

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.

MAGIC OF TRENDLINES

Identifying the technique how to draw trend lines, and channels and using them for entry and exits may be one of easy technique for trading purpose.

NIFTY DAILY

The above chart is daily chart of NIFTY.

(A) When it closed above trend line 1, u can buy with stop loss close below trend line 1, for target of trend line 2. See on 30/3/12 it closed above trend line 1, and yesterday it reached trend line 2 and got resisted there so profit should be booked at yesterdays close.

(B) Yesterday it touched trend line 2 and got resisted there so sell at yesterdays close with stop loss close above trend line 2. This position will be for targeting trend line 1 once again.

POSSIBLE FUTURE TRADES ---

(C) If closes above trend line 2, then buy with stop loss close below trend line 2. Target we may post later on if this happens.

(D) If takes support at trend line 1, buy with stop loss close below trend line 1 for target of trend line 2.


(E) If closes below trend line 3, sell with stop loss close above trend line 3 for target of trend line 4.

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.

HAPPY NEW FINANCIAL YEAR

Some of our friends given feedback that they don't understand technicals and will like to see some post related to basics in financial planning, stock market investing. So during new financial year if possible we will try to write the same along with technical analysis also.

        Once again we thank our blog reader's. This blog writing helped us lot to improve our knowledge regarding technical analysis.

NIFTY - LONG TERM VIEW UPDATE

Yesterday short term trend changed to down, today intermediate also turned down, so what next ?

NIFTY WEEKLY CHART

 Now looks like our NIFTY FIFTY will test the upper trend line of down trending channel on weekly chart, which is approximately 5000-5050 level. After testing this level if NIFTY turns up then it will be very healthy for Indian market for up move. IN SHORT : - IT IS GIVING OPPORTUNITY TO BUY FOR LONG TERM INVESTORS.
5000-5050 level get tested in next 1-1.5 month period.

CAUTION : - but at the same time if it starts trading in down trending channel once again, then it may have negative impact and this view will get negated. If it starts trading in channel once again, there will be possibility of testing lows (4530) made in DEC 11, or it may start trading in range so that there will be time correction.

NOTE:- AS OF NOW STOP LOSS FOR LONG TERM INVESTOR IS WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 4530. kindly note this level may change according to future price action.

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.

HAPPY NEW YEAR

WISHING ALL BLOG READERS HAPPY GUDI PADAWA AND HEALTHY N WEALTHY HAPPY NEW YEAR.

     THE NEW YEAR WHICH COMMENCES ON GUDI PADAWA, IS IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE TIME THE UNIVERSE CAME INTO EXISTENCE . THUS THE DAY HAS TREMENDOUS POTENTIAL ELEMENTS TO CREATE A NEW ( NAV-CHAITANYA ). THUS CELEBRATE ONSET OF NEW YEAR ON GUDI PADWA.

     IT IS ON THE SAME DAY LAST YEAR WE STARTED THIS BLOG. LITTLE BIT CONFUSED AT THAT TIME WHETHER IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR US TO WRITE THE BLOG, BUT UP TILL NOW 104 POSTS, NOT BAD.

      ONCE AGAIN CONFUSED WHETHER TO CONTINUE THE BLOG OR NOT, LETS SEE WHAT IS IN STORE NEXT YEAR.

SHORT TERM VIEW

It has been mentioned in yesterdays post --- " So now further direction will depend on hourly close outside the range of 5230-5300. If it closes above 5300 possibility of 5370-5400 " And today at 1:00 pm it given hourly close above 5300 so now possibility of 5370-5400 are high.

 Stop loss for this trade will be hourly close below 5256.25.

 By giving hourly close above 5300, it may be giving early indication that the short term correction which started on 15 march may be over. For this now it should not break below 5233, otherwise this view will get negated.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.

CONFUSION -- SHORT TERM TRADERS NOT SURE ABOUT DIRECTION

On 16 march view predicted was -- " Since yesterday short term trend has been changed to down, one can sell NIFTY at C.M.P. (current market price ) - 5421 for target of 5300 and may be 5200 in coming 4-5 trading sessions." ( See link - http://kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/03/nifty-short-term-view.html ). RESULT : - On next trading day ( 19 march) nifty achieved target of 5300, and today made low of 5233.8.

Now what is next possibility ?

NIFTY HOURLY 

As seen in above hourly chart nifty is trading in narrow range  since last 2 days.

 

NIFTY DAILY 

As seen above chart during previous fall on 7 march 200 EMA given support to nifty, and since last 2 days nifty is getting supported by 50 EMA, will these 2 supports  hold or got broken during this week? Nobody knows the answer, we will follow the technicals so that we will be on right side.
    One more thing we can notice in daily chart is that -- today nifty opened at 5261.3, made high of 5297.15, low of 5233.8 so movement of approx. 64 points, but closed at 5270.3. Thus it made DOJI which once again signifies confusion among short term traders about further direction.
    So now further direction will depend on hourly close outside the range of 5230-5300. If it closes above 5300 possibility of 5370-5400 and if closes below 5230 possibility of testing recent low roughly 5170
    Direction will be more clear after daily close above 5345or below  5230. If it gives daily close above

5345 possibility of resuming up trend are high and we will consider that recent fall is correction in ongoing up trend. But if it gives daily close below 5330 possibility of testing 5170 or there may be more downside.

 IMPORTANT NOTE : - 

WEEKLY CHART

 As seen in weekly chart during the week ending on 3 feb NIFTY given break out above the down trending channel. The approximate target for this breakout is 6000-6050. BUT CAUTION during the ongoing correction ( fall ) nifty should not give weekly close below the upper trend line. Otherwise NIFTY will be back in channel and the breakout will turn out to be false break out. If this happens possibility of testing 4530 once again are high, and it may make new low also.

DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing my trading ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading.