LONG TERM VIEW

It is more than one month from our last post. In last month we were away from market, internet almost for more than 15 days and also due to hectic work schedule it was not possible to update.

Even though we have not updated, in our last post  ( see link http://www.kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/04/nothing-new-range-bound.html ) we have clearly mentioned that "  (B) FOR DOWN SIDE BREAK OUT
      Daily close below 5183.5 will be first indication that there is possibility of down side.
      Weekly close below 5135.95 will be more confirmatory sign for downside."

Those who have followed these levels mentioned in our last post must have benefited

See what happened actually --- on Friday 4/5/12 it gave daily close below 5183.5, as well as weekly close below 5135.95 which was clear cut indication for exiting long term investments. After that within 10 trading sessions nifty made low of 4788.95 ( on 18/5/12 ).

 THERE IS LONG TERM TREND LINE SUPPORT AS WELL AS 200SMA ON WEEKLY CHART IN THE REGION OF 4800-4850  ( which has all ready given support once ) . AT THE SAME TIME RIGHT NOW TREND ON DAILY, WEEKLY AS WELL AS MONTHLY TIME FRAME IS DOWN SO CHANCES OF BREAKING OF THIS SUPPORT ARE VERY HIGH. BECAUSE OF WHICH TESTING OF  LOW MADE IN DEC 11 ARE VERY HIGH ( 4500- 4600 ZONE )

SO NOW PLAN FOR LONG TERM INVESTMENT --

( A) For high risk investor --- those who can digest 20-30% erosion ( on paper ) in there capital should put 33% of investible  surplus in good diversified equity mutual funds or fundamentally good stocks  at following three levels --- 

        1) 4800-4850

        2) 4400

        3) 3900-4000

( B) For conservative investor --- whenever there is confirmed up trend on weekly charts. Until it happens park your money in short term F.D. or liquid mutual funds.

Those who have acted according to our posts on (1) 24 jan 12 ( possibility of starting new bull market, which actually happened because of weekly close above 27/1/12). So those who invested in good mutual funds on next trading session and exited  according to our post  (2) 29/4/12 once it has given weekly close below 5135.95 9 ( on 4/5/12 so exit should be on next trading session i.e. 7/5/12 ) must have made profit of  3-10%.

 DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.