If nifty gives hourly close above 5190-5200 possibility of extending this up move to 5320-5350.
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Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be
taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own
research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.
Monday, June 25, 2012
Monday, June 18, 2012
FOLLOW UP
On Sunday 10 June, in this post FOLLOW UP --- LONG TERM VIEW , it has been advised to book profit at nifty level of 5200. Last week after consolidation for 4 days finally on Friday nifty closed at 5139.05
Now there is strong resistance for nifty in 5170-5200 range. So those who don't want to take risk and willing to lock profit in this 5170-5200 zone. ( probably today only during opening hour ).
At the same time if nifty breaks this 5170-5200 zone it may easily go up to 5300-5400. So those who are willing to loose some part from profit for chances of making more profit can ride the ongoing up trend with stop loss of previous 2 days low.
Today there will be RBI policy announcement so market will be volatile, if there is positive surprise it may go much higher. At the same time if there is disappointment chances of testing recent low around 4770-4800 band are also high. So as of now those who are willing to take risk keep strict stop loss of previous 2 days low on daily closing basis and ride this wave.
Those who are not willing to take risk book profit. New entry level will be mentioned later on if there is correction and if there is no correction one can enter once again if there is weekly close above 5378.75 since long term trend will turn up.
DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.
Now there is strong resistance for nifty in 5170-5200 range. So those who don't want to take risk and willing to lock profit in this 5170-5200 zone. ( probably today only during opening hour ).
At the same time if nifty breaks this 5170-5200 zone it may easily go up to 5300-5400. So those who are willing to loose some part from profit for chances of making more profit can ride the ongoing up trend with stop loss of previous 2 days low.
Today there will be RBI policy announcement so market will be volatile, if there is positive surprise it may go much higher. At the same time if there is disappointment chances of testing recent low around 4770-4800 band are also high. So as of now those who are willing to take risk keep strict stop loss of previous 2 days low on daily closing basis and ride this wave.
Those who are not willing to take risk book profit. New entry level will be mentioned later on if there is correction and if there is no correction one can enter once again if there is weekly close above 5378.75 since long term trend will turn up.
DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.
Sunday, June 10, 2012
FOLLOW UP --- LONG TERM VIEW
On 1'st June in this post ( http://www.kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/06/long-term-view.html ), we have advised that high risk investors should invest 33% of investible surplus at 4800-4850 level. On very next trading session ( i.e. 4/6/12 ) it made low of 4770 and started up move.
Right now even though long term trend is now, short term and medium term trend is up. Those who bought arond 4800-4850 should book profit at nifty level of 5200. But to reach level of 5200 it has to clear resistance at 5100-5120 zone. So keep stop loss of previous two days low.
DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.
Right now even though long term trend is now, short term and medium term trend is up. Those who bought arond 4800-4850 should book profit at nifty level of 5200. But to reach level of 5200 it has to clear resistance at 5100-5120 zone. So keep stop loss of previous two days low.
NOTE : - TO TURN LONG TERM TREND UP NIFTY SHOULD GIVE WEEKLY CLOSE ABOVE 5378.75.
Since there is GLOOM N DOOM scenario all over world right now, in long term view we are trying to capitalize on short / medium term rebounds, at the same time we will be fully invested whenever there is long term up trend. In this effort we may have to take small losses, but the main objective is we will try to preserve our capital at the same time we will not miss the long term opportunity.
DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.
Saturday, June 9, 2012
GOLD --- FOLLOW UP
To minimize risk short term trader should keep stop loss of daily close below 28750, while medium term investor should keep stop loss of weekly close below 27855.
NOTE :- Since 2004-05 gold had dream run, so this is not right time to invest, since it is in strong uptrend, someone can invest for short period with proper technical analysis and with strict stop loss.
CAUTION :- Even though gold in rupee terms given breakout from ascending triangle.If u observe the chart of gold in dollar terms given below u can realize that, after forming top around $1780 in Feb 12, it is in down trend and trying to take support around $1540. So recent appreciation in gold in rupee terms may be because of rupee depreciation. So take care while trading / buying gold.
DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.
Sunday, June 3, 2012
GOLD --- 33,000 ?
DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.
Friday, June 1, 2012
LONG TERM VIEW
It is more than one month from our last post. In last month we were away from market, internet almost for more than 15 days and also due to hectic work schedule it was not possible to update.
Even though we have not updated, in our last post ( see link http://www.kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/04/nothing-new-range-bound.html ) we have clearly mentioned that " (B) FOR DOWN SIDE BREAK OUT
Daily close below 5183.5 will be first indication that there is possibility of down side.
Weekly close below 5135.95 will be more confirmatory sign for downside."
Those who have followed these levels mentioned in our last post must have benefited
See what happened actually --- on Friday 4/5/12 it gave daily close below 5183.5, as well as weekly close below 5135.95 which was clear cut indication for exiting long term investments. After that within 10 trading sessions nifty made low of 4788.95 ( on 18/5/12 ).
THERE IS LONG TERM TREND LINE SUPPORT AS WELL AS 200SMA ON WEEKLY CHART IN THE REGION OF 4800-4850 ( which has all ready given support once ) . AT THE SAME TIME RIGHT NOW TREND ON DAILY, WEEKLY AS WELL AS MONTHLY TIME FRAME IS DOWN SO CHANCES OF BREAKING OF THIS SUPPORT ARE VERY HIGH. BECAUSE OF WHICH TESTING OF LOW MADE IN DEC 11 ARE VERY HIGH ( 4500- 4600 ZONE )
Even though we have not updated, in our last post ( see link http://www.kolhapuritrader.blogspot.in/2012/04/nothing-new-range-bound.html ) we have clearly mentioned that " (B) FOR DOWN SIDE BREAK OUT
Daily close below 5183.5 will be first indication that there is possibility of down side.
Weekly close below 5135.95 will be more confirmatory sign for downside."
Those who have followed these levels mentioned in our last post must have benefited
See what happened actually --- on Friday 4/5/12 it gave daily close below 5183.5, as well as weekly close below 5135.95 which was clear cut indication for exiting long term investments. After that within 10 trading sessions nifty made low of 4788.95 ( on 18/5/12 ).
THERE IS LONG TERM TREND LINE SUPPORT AS WELL AS 200SMA ON WEEKLY CHART IN THE REGION OF 4800-4850 ( which has all ready given support once ) . AT THE SAME TIME RIGHT NOW TREND ON DAILY, WEEKLY AS WELL AS MONTHLY TIME FRAME IS DOWN SO CHANCES OF BREAKING OF THIS SUPPORT ARE VERY HIGH. BECAUSE OF WHICH TESTING OF LOW MADE IN DEC 11 ARE VERY HIGH ( 4500- 4600 ZONE )
SO NOW PLAN FOR LONG TERM INVESTMENT --
( A) For high risk investor --- those who can digest 20-30% erosion ( on paper ) in there capital should put 33% of investible surplus in good diversified equity mutual funds or fundamentally good stocks at following three levels ---
1) 4800-4850
2) 4400
3) 3900-4000
( B) For conservative investor --- whenever there is confirmed up trend on weekly charts. Until it happens park your money in short term F.D. or liquid mutual funds.
Those who have acted according to our posts on (1) 24 jan 12 ( possibility of starting new bull market, which actually happened because of weekly close above 27/1/12). So those who invested in good mutual funds on next trading session and exited according to our post (2) 29/4/12 once it has given weekly close below 5135.95 9 ( on 4/5/12 so exit should be on next trading session i.e. 7/5/12 ) must have made profit of 3-10%.
DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.
DISCLAIMER: This Blog is meant for sharing our trading and investment ideas only and no calls to be taken as trading / investment recommendation. Visitors please do your own research or consult your advisers for safe trading, investing.
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